Citations

Abstract Background: Prospective validation of breast cancer risk models integrating classical risk factors and genetic variants is required for risk-stratified prevention and screening strategies. The objective of this study was to validate a breast cancer risk model integrating classical risk factors and a 313-variant polygenic risk score (PRS) in multiple prospective cohort studies, and to project five-year risk of breast cancer in six different countries. Methods: The study population included 7,529 cases and 230,103 controls from 14 prospective cohort studies in Australia, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, UK, and USA. We used the Individualized Coherent Absolute Risk Estimator (iCARE) tool for risk model building, validation, and risk projection. Expected five-year risk of invasive or in situ breast cancer was compared to observed risk, overall and within deciles of expected risk using goodness of fit statistics. We evaluated calibration of the relative risk through meta-analysis across cohorts, and of the absolute risk within each cohort. Model discrimination was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC), and percentages of women crossing risk thresholds. Projections of five-year risk distributions were estimated for women of European ancestry aged 50-70 years in the general populations of these six countries. Results: Analysis showed overall good calibration of the integrated iCARE-based model relative risk for both women younger than 50 years (χ2=14.9, P=0.09) and aged 50 years or older (χ2=14.6, P=0.10), with a small overestimation of risk for women in the highest decile of expected risk (RR = 3.5 expected vs 2.3 (95% CI 1.6 to 3.2) observed for women <50 years; and 2.8 expected vs 2.3 (95% CI 2.0 to 2.7) observed for women 50+ years). The age-adjusted AUCs for the integrated model were 63.1 (95% CI 60.9 to 65.3) and 62.9 (95% CI 61.8 to 64.0), for the two age groups respectively. The calibration of absolute risk showed substantial variation across cohorts, particularly for the older group, but had no systematic bias. Model based projections in the general populations showed that compared to the population average, women in the 1st and 99th percentiles of the integrated risk score had relative risks 0.19 and 3.56 respectively. The proportion of women of European ancestry aged 50-70 years with a five-year risk greater than 3% (threshold for consideration of risk-lowering drugs by U.S. Preventive Services Task Force) ranged from 7.1% in Germany to 18.2% in the US, which corresponds to ~5.5 million women in the US. Conclusions: Five-year risk predictions from a model with classical risk factors and PRS are well calibrated and provide substantial risk stratification across multiple cohorts in six different countries. Further studies are needed to evaluate the clinical utility of the validated model for risk stratified screening and prevention of breast cancer. Citation Format: Parichoy Pal Choudhury, Amber Wilcox, Chi Gao, Brian Carter, Anika Husing, Mark Brook, Mikael Eriksson, Kara Martin, Chris Scott, Min Shi, Thomas Ahearn, Michael Jones, Nick Orr, Minouk Schoemaker, Kamila Czene, Jenny Chang-Claude, Jacques Simard, Doug Easton, Marjanka K. Schmidt, Dale Sandler, Clarice R. Weinberg, Celine Vachon, Roger Milne, Per Hall, Anthony Swerdlow, Rudolph Kaaks, Myrto Barrdahl, Mia Gaudet, Antonis Antoniou, Peter Kraft, Montserrat Garcia-Closas, Nilanjan Chatterjee. Validation of breast cancer risk model incorporating classical risk factors and polygenic risk scores in 14 prospective cohort studies in 6 countries [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2019; 2019 Mar 29-Apr 3; Atlanta, GA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2019;79(13 Suppl):Abstract nr 962.

Abstract Identifying risk factors for women at high risk of symptom-detected breast cancers that were missed by screening would enable targeting of alternative prevention strategies. To identify breast cancer risk factors by mode of detection, we examined these associations in heavily-screened women from the Cancer Prevention Study (CPS)-II Nutrition Cohort. Among 76,406 women followed for a median of 13.8 years, 2,469 screen-detected and 1,189 symptom-detected breast cancer cases were diagnosed. Multivariable-adjusted associations were estimated using joint Cox proportional hazards regression models with person-time calculated contingent on screening. The mean (standard deviation) age at baseline was 62.0 (6.6) years for non-cases, 61.6 (6.1) for screen-detected cases, and 61.5 (6.2) for symptom-detected cases. Women with symptom-detected tumors were diagnosed at a slightly younger age (mean=69.4) and less likely to be diagnosed with a localized tumor (65.3%), than women with a screen-detected tumor (mean age at diagnosis=70.4 and localized tumors=83.3%). Factors associated with higher risks of symptom detected vs. screen detected breast cancer, included: current combined menopausal hormone use (HR=2.04, 95% CI 1.70 - 2.46 vs. HR=1.43, 95% CI 1.25 - 1.63), current estrogen only menopausal hormone use (HR=1.41, 95% CI 1.15 - 1.72 vs. HR=0.94, 95% CI 0.82 - 1.09), and history of benign breast disease (HR=1.89, 95% CI 1.67 - 2.13 vs. HR=1.49, 95% CI 1.36 - 1.62). The opposite pattern of higher risk of screen detected vs. symptom detected breast cancer was observed for greater adult weight gain (HR=2.32, 95% CI 1.91 - 2.82 vs. HR=1.42, 95% CI 1.10 - 1.84) and alcohol intake (HR=1.39, 95% CI 1.24 - 1.64 vs. HR=1.20, 95% CI 0.92 - 1.58). Our results suggest that understanding risk factors for symptom-detected cancers may help identify women who would benefit from more intensive screening to facilitate early detection. Citation Format: Mia M. Gaudet, Emily Deubler, W. Ryan Diver, Samantha Puvanesarajah, Alpa V. Patel, Ted Gansler, Dana Flanders, Mark Sherman, Susan Gapstur. Breast cancer risk factors by mode of detection among screened women in the Cancer Prevention Study-II [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2019; 2019 Mar 29-Apr 3; Atlanta, GA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2019;79(13 Suppl):Abstract nr 4211.

Abstract Background: Understanding the joint effect on breast cancer risk of rare pathogenic variants in cancer predisposition genes and polygenic risk scores (PRS) from common variants can enable a precision approach to breast cancer management. Previous work found that PRS were associated with breast cancer risk in BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers recruited from cancer genetics clinics (Kuchenbaecker et al. JNCI 2017). The joint effects of pathogenic variants and PRS have not been studied in samples drawn from the general population. There is also no existing study evaluating the effect of PRS in mutation carriers in genes other than BRCA1/2. Here we evaluate the joint effects of PRS and pathogenic mutations in established cancer predisposition genes in a population-based case-control sample. Method: We analyzed 53,199 European-ancestry individuals (20,730 controls and 21,272 cases) drawn from 7 cohorts and 2 population-based case-control studies in the CAnceR RIsk Estimates Related to Susceptibility” (CARRIERS) consortium. Targeted sequencing was performed using dual bar-coded QIAseq. Mutation calling was conducted with Haplotype Caller and Vardict. We sequenced 18 breast cancer predisposition genes: ATM, BARD1, BRCA1, BRCA2, BRIP1, CDH1, CDKN2A, CHECK2, FANCC, MLH1, MSH2, MSH6, NF1, PALB2, PTEN, RAD51C, RAD51D and TP53. The PRS was calculated based on 128 common variants using effect estimates from the largest published breast cancer GWAS. The PRS was standardized to a mean of 0 and standard deviation of 1. Logistic regression was performed to assess the combined effect of identified mutation and common variants (including main and interaction effects for carrier status and PRS). Results: A total of 1,770 pathogenic mutations were observed. About 1% of the study sample had mutations in either BRCA1 (n=209) or BRCA2 gene (n=305), and 2.2% had mutations in other genes (n=1,176). The effect of PRS in BRCA1 carriers was OR= 0.97 (95%CI: 0.62, 1.52); however, this is not statistically significantly different from the PRS in non-carriers [OR=1.23 (95%CI: 1.20, 1.25)] or previous estimates in carriers [OR: 1.14, 95%CI: 1.11-1.17]. The effect of PRS in BRCA2 carriers was OR=1.87 (95%CI: 1.31, 2.78) which was statistically significantly different from that of the non-carriers. Among the mutation carriers in genes other than BRCA, the effect of PRS on breast cancer was OR=1.00 (95%CI: 0.88,1.15). Conclusion: Consistent with previous studies, we did not find evidence that the effect of the PRS among BRCA1 carriers was statistically significantly different than non-carriers. We found some evidence that the PRS effect may be larger among BRCA2 carriers than non-carriers. Our results also suggest that PRS may not have a strong effect on breast cancer risk in mutation carriers of other predisposition genes; further work is needed for verification. Citation Format: Chi Gao, Chunling Hu, Steven N. Hart, Rohan Gnanaolivu, Kun Y. Lee, Jenna Lilyquist, Nicholas J. Boddicker, Bruce Eckloff, Raed Samara, Josh Klebba, Paul Auer, Leslie Bernstein, Mia Gaudet, Hoda Anton-Culver, Amy Trentham-Dietz, Julie R. Palmer, Song Yao, Christopher Haiman, Janet E. Olson, Susan Domchek, Jeffrey Weitzel, David Goldgar, Katherine L. Nathanson, Eric C. Polley, Fergus J. Couch, Peter Kraft. The joint effects of polygenic risk scores and pathogenic variants in cancer predisposition genes on breast cancer risk in the general population: results from the CARRIERS study [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2019; 2019 Mar 29-Apr 3; Atlanta, GA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2019;79(13 Suppl):Abstract nr 4177.

Abstract Clinical germline genetic testing of cancer predisposition gene panels is used to identify women at increased risk for breast cancer. Pathogenic mutations in cancer predisposition genes are associated with established risks of breast cancer and are actively used for risk management of breast cancer for women qualifying for genetic testing because of a family history of breast and/or ovarian cancer or young age of diagnosis. However, the risks of breast cancer associated with mutations in these genes have likely been overestimated for many women in the general population. The goal of the “CAnceR RIsk Estimates Related to Susceptibility” (CARRIERS) study was to estimate breast cancer risks associated with mutations in hereditary cancer panel genes. Germline DNA from 32,298 breast cancer patients and 31,869 matched unaffected controls enrolled in cohorts and population-based case-control studies were sequenced to identify pathogenic mutations in 37 cancer predisposition genes.The average age at diagnosis was 61.2 years and the average age of last follow-up was 62.1 years. DNA was subjected to dual bar-coded QIAseq multiplex PCR-based amplification of 1733 target regions in 37 predisposition genes. Products from 768 samples were pooled and sequenced in a single lane of a HiSeq 4000 system. Mutations were called by GATK Haplotype Caller and Vardict.High quality sequence data was obtained for 99.3% of target regions. Pathogenic mutations in 12 known breast cancer predisposition genes were identified in 6.2% of all breast cancer cases and 2.1% of controls; and in 6.7% of African American breast cancer cases and 1.8% of controls. In case-control association analyses adjusted for age at diagnosis or last follow up and family history of breast and ovarian cancer, mutations in BRCA1, BRCA2, and PALB2 were associated with high risks of breast cancer (odds ratio (OR)>4.0). Mutations in CHEK2 and BARD1 were associated with moderate risks of breast cancer (OR>2.0), whereas mutations in ATM had lower clinical relevance (OR=1.6). Stratification by ER, PR, and HER2 status of tumors found that BRCA1, BRCA2, PALB2 and TP53 were associated with high risks of studies of triple negative breast cancer (TNBC), and that BARD1, BRIP1, FANCM, and RAD51C were associated with moderate risks of TNBC. Overall, results from the CARRIERS study establish that mutations in predisposition genes are associated with lower risks of breast cancer in the general population than in high-risk families. The age-related estimates of breast cancer risk for each of the hereditary cancer panel genes in this study may inform on the use of cancer screening and other risk management strategies for women in the general population with mutations in predisposition genes. Citation Format: Fergus J. Couch, Chunling Hu, Steven N. Hart, Rohan Gnanaolivu, Jenna Lilyquist, Kun Y. Lee, Chi Gao, Bruce Eckloff, Hoda Anton-Culver, Paul Auer, Leslie Bernstein, Mia Gaudet, Christopher Haiman, Julie Palmer, Amy Tentham-Dietz, Song Yao, Susan Domchek, Jeffrey N. Weitzel, David E. Goldgar, Katherine L. Nathanson, Peter Kraft, Eric C. Polley. Population-based breast cancer risk estimates associated with cancer predisposition gene mutations from 32,298 breast cancer patients and 31,869 matched unaffected controls from the CARRIERS study [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2019; 2019 Mar 29-Apr 3; Atlanta, GA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2019;79(13 Suppl):Abstract nr 4169.

AbstractBackgroundRacial disparities in breast cancer (BC) outcomes persist where non-Hispanic black (NHB) women are more likely to die from BC than non-Hispanic white (NHW) women, and the extent of this disparity varies geographically. We evaluated tumor, treatment, and patient characteristics that contribute to racial differences in BC mortality in Atlanta, Georgia, where the disparity was previously characterized as especially large.MethodsWe identified 4943 NHW and 3580 NHB women in the Georgia Cancer Registry with stage I–IV BC diagnoses in Atlanta (2010–2014). We used Cox proportional hazard regression to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) comparing NHB vs NHW BC mortality by tumor, treatment, and patient characteristics on the additive and multiplicative scales. We additionally estimated the mediating effects of these characteristics on the association between race and BC mortality.ResultsAt diagnosis, NHB women were younger—with higher stage, node-positive, and triple-negative tumors relative to NHW women. In age-adjusted models, NHB women with luminal A disease had a 2.43 times higher rate of BC mortality compared to their NHW counterparts (95% CI = 1.99 to 2.97). High socioeconomic status (SES) NHB women had more than twice the mortality rates than their white counterparts (HR = 2.67, 95% CI = 1.65 to 4.33). Racial disparities among women without insurance, in the lowest SES index, or diagnosed with triple-negative BC were less pronounced.ConclusionsIn Atlanta, the largest racial disparities are observed in luminal tumors and most pronounced among women of high SES. More research is needed to understand drivers of disparities within these treatable features.

104 Background: The identification of pathogenic mutations in breast cancer susceptibility genes through clinical genetic testing leads to focused screening and prevention strategies for women at increased risk of cancer. However, the frequency of mutations and the risks of cancer associated with breast cancer predisposition genes has not been established for the African American population. Methods: Germline DNA samples from African American women (5,054 breast cancer cases and 4,993 age-matched unaffected controls) from 10 U.S. studies were tested for mutations in 20 established breast cancer predisposition genes using a QIAseq multiplex amplicon panel as part of the “CAnceR RIsk Estimates Related to Susceptibility” (CARRIERS) study. The frequency of mutations in each gene and associations between mutations and breast cancer risk, adjusted for study design, age, and first-degree family history of breast cancer, were evaluated. Results: The mean age at diagnosis of breast cancer cases was 54.4 years and the mean age of controls was 55.2 years. 18.2% of cases and 10.8% of controls reported a first-degree family history of breast cancer. Pathogenic mutations in any of the 20 breast cancer predisposition genes were identified in 7.6% of breast cancer cases and 2.4% of controls. In multivariable analyses, mutations in BRCA1, BRCA2, and PALB2 were associated with high risks of breast cancer (odds ratio (OR) > 5.0). Mutations in CHEK2 were associated with moderate risks of breast cancer (OR > 2.0), whereas mutations in ATM had lower clinical relevance (OR = 1.8). Mutations in BRCA1, BRCA2, PALB2, and RAD51D, but not CHEK2 or ATM, were associated with increased risks of estrogen receptor negative breast cancer. Conclusions: Cancer predisposition genes confer similar risks of breast cancer in the African American population as in non-Hispanic Whites. These studies provide important insights into the risks of breast cancer associated with predisposition gene mutations in the African American population.

Abstract Background: Clinical germline genetic testing of cancer predisposition gene panels is used to identify women at increased risk for breast cancer. The identification of pathogenic mutations in established high and moderate predisposition genes may result in improved risk management of breast cancer for tested patients and their family members through tailored screening, prophylactic surgeries, or chemoprevention. However, the risks of breast cancer associated with mutations in these genes have likely been overestimated for many women in the general population because previous studies have focused on individuals with a family history of breast and/or ovarian cancer, early onset disease, or triple negative breast cancer. The goal of the “CAnceR RIsk Estimates Related to Susceptibility” (CARRIERS) study is to estimate breast cancer risks associated with mutations in hereditary cancer panel genes in the general population. Methods: Germline DNA samples from blood or saliva were obtained from 39,439 breast cancer patients and matched unaffected controls from six US-based cohorts (BWHS, CPSII, CTS, MEC, NHS1, NHS2, WHI). DNA was subjected to dual bar-coded QIAseq multiplex PCR-based amplification of 1733 target regions covering all coding regions of 37 cancer predisposition genes and sequenced. Mutation calling was conducted with Haplotype Caller and Vardict. Results: High quality sequence data was obtained for 38,990 of 39,439 samples (98.9%) and for 99.3% of target regions. Pathogenic mutations in 12 known breast cancer predisposition genes were identified 4.5% of all breast cancer cases and 2.1% of controls; and in 6.7% of African American breast cancer cases and 1.8% of controls. Differences in mutation frequencies were observed by age with mutations in 7.8% of cases diagnosed £50 years of age and 4.0% of cases diagnosed over age 50. Mutations in ATM, BRCA1, BRCA2, and PALB2 were enriched 2 to 3-fold in cases diagnosed under age 50 relative to older cases. No change in frequency of CHEK2 mutations by age was observed. In case-control analyses mutations in BRCA1, BRCA2 and PALB2 were significantly associated with a high risk of breast cancer (odds ratio (OR)>4.0). Of these, BRCA1 and BRCA2 displayed ORs of 13.5 and 16.6 in the £50 age group, but only 5.7 and 3.2 in the >50 age group. Only minor age-specific effects were observed for PALB2. Mutations in ATM and CHEK2 were associated with moderate risks of breast cancer (OR=2.0 to 4.0) in the younger age group, but not in the older age group. Conclusions: Results from the CARRIERS cohort-based study establish that mutations in known breast cancer predisposition genes are associated with only moderate risks of breast cancer in the general population. However, risks are substantially increased for BRCA1 and BRCA2 but not ATM, CHEK2 or PALB2 mutations in those £50 years of age. The age-related estimates of breast cancer risk for each of the hereditary cancer panel genes in this study may inform selection of individuals in the general population who may benefit from genetic testing and associated risk management strategies. Citation Format: Couch FJ, Hu C, Hart SN, Gnanaolivu RD, Lilyquist J, Lee KY, Gao C, Eckloff B, Samara R, Klebba J, Auer P, Bernstein L, Gaudet M, Haiman C, Palmer JR, Yao S, Domchek SM, Weitzel JN, Goldgar DE, Nathanson KL, Kraft P, Polley EC. Age-related breast cancer risk estimates for the general population based on sequencing of cancer predisposition genes in 19,228 breast cancer patients and 20,211 matched unaffected controls from US based cohorts in the CARRIERS study [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2018 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2018 Dec 4-8; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2019;79(4 Suppl):Abstract nr GS2-01.

Abstract Background There are an estimated 1.4 million colorectal cancer (CRC) survivors in the United States. Research on endocrine and metabolic diseases over the long term in CRC survivors is limited. Obesity is a risk factor for CRC; thus it is of interest to investigate diseases that may share this risk factor, such as diabetes, for long-term health outcomes among CRC survivors. Methods A total of 7114 CRC patients were identified from the Utah Population Database and matched to a general population cohort of 25 979 individuals on birth year, sex, and birth state. Disease diagnoses (assessed over three time periods of 1–5 years, 5–10 years, and >10 years) were identified using electronic medical records and statewide ambulatory and inpatient discharge data. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the risk of endocrine and metabolic disease. Results Across all three time periods, risks for endocrine and metabolic diseases were statistically significantly greater for CRC survivors compared with the general population cohort. At 1–5 years postdiagnosis, CRC survivors’ risk for diabetes mellitus with complications was statistically significantly elevated (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.36, 99% confidence interval [CI] = 1.09 to 1.70). CRC survivors also experienced a 40% increased risk of obesity at 1–5 years postcancer diagnosis (HR= 1.40, 99% CI= 1.66 to 2.18) and a 50% increased risk at 5–10 years postdiagnosis (HR = 1.50, 99% CI= 1.16 to 1.95). Conclusions Endocrine and metabolic diseases were statistically significantly higher in CRC survivors throughout the follow-up periods of 1–5 years, 5–10 years, and more than 10 years postdiagnosis. As the number of CRC survivors increases, understanding the long-term trajectory is critical for improved survivorship care.

Objectives: To determine the risk and risk factors for mental illness among colorectal cancer (CRC) survivors across short-term and long-term follow-up periods. Methods: We used the Utah Cancer Registry to identify CRC survivors diagnosed between 1997 and 2013. Mental health diagnoses were available in electronic medical records and statewide facilities data that were linked by the Utah Population Database. CRC survivors were matched to individuals from a general population cohort. The risk of developing a mental illness was compared between cohorts. The association between mental illness and mortality was also analyzed. Results: In total, 8961 CRC survivors and 35,897 individuals in a general population cohort were identified. CRC survivors were at increased risk for any mental health diagnosis at 0 to 2 years (hazard ratio [HR], 3.70; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.47-3.95), >2 to 5 years (HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.09-1.38), and >5 years (HR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.07-1.36) after cancer diagnosis. CRC survivors were also at increased risk of depressive disorders specifically during the same time periods. At >5 years, CRC survivors still had an increased risk of developing many mental health diagnoses. Factors associated with increased risk of any mental health disorder among CRC survivors included colostomy and Charlson Comorbidity Index of 1+. There was an increased risk of death for CRC survivors diagnosed with any mental health disorder (HR, 2.18; 95% CI, 2.02-2.35) and depression (HR, 2.10; 95% CI, 1.92-2.28). Conclusions: CRC survivors are at increased risk for mental health disorders in the short-term and long-term. Survivors who develop mental health disorders also experience decreased survival.