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Key Points In an observational cohort of mostly non-Hispanic White women, pregnancy was not associated with later-life accelerated kidney function decline. Pregnancy occurring during the HALT Progression of Polycystic Kidney Disease (HALT-PKD) trial was not associated with kidney disease progression relative to women who did not become pregnant. Prior evidence indicates that adverse pregnancy outcomes may be involved in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease progression; pregnant women should be closely monitored. Background Data are conflicting regarding whether pregnancy influences disease progression in women with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD). This study examined whether pregnancy or number of pregnancies was associated with kidney disease progression in women with ADPKD. Methods Women with early- (study A) and late-stage (study B) ADPKD from the HALT Progression of Polycystic Kidney Disease (HALT-PKD) trial were included to examine the association between self-reported number of pregnancies (categorical predictor: no pregnancy versus 1–2 pregnancies and ≥3 pregnancies), annual slope of eGFR, annual percent change in total kidney volume (%ΔTKV), and a composite outcome (kidney failure, 50% decline in eGFR, or death) using multivariable linear regression and Cox proportional hazard models. In addition, women who became pregnant, had full-term pregnancies, and available data during study participation ( n =13) were propensity matched (1:4) to women who were not pregnant during study participation, and a mixed model was applied to determine the association of pregnancy with eGFR slope and %ΔTKV. Results Across all analyses, 455 women with a median age of 45 (interquartile range, 38–50) years and eGFR of 69±25 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 at baseline were included. One hundred ninety-nine women had 1–2 pregnancies, and 165 women had ≥3 pregnancies. There was no association of 1–2 pregnancies or ≥3 pregnancies (versus no pregnancies) with eGFR slope ( β -estimate [95% confidence interval (CI)]; 1–2 pregnancies: 0.22 [−0.44 to 0.89]; ≥3 pregnancies: −0.46 [−1.16 to 0.25]), %ΔTKV ( β -estimate [95% CI]; 1–2 pregnancies: 0.92 [−0.34 to 2.17]; ≥3 pregnancies: 0.69 [−0.67 to 2.04]), or time to composite outcome (hazard ratio [95% CI]; 1–2 pregnancies: 1.04 [0.56 to 1.93]; ≥3 pregnancies: 1.48 [0.78 to 2.77]) in adjusted models. Moreover, there was no difference in annual eGFR slope ( β -estimate: −0.14 [95% CI, −2.72 to 2.44]) and %ΔTKV ( β -estimate: 0.04 [95% CI, −3.74 to 3.82]) in women who became pregnant matched to women who did not became pregnant during their participation in the study. Conclusions Pregnancy was not associated with ADPKD progression among women with early- and late-stage ADPKD enrolled in the HALT-PKD trial.

ABSTRACT Background A decrease in renal blood flow (RBF) precedes estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline among patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) and inversely associates with disease severity and progression. However, it is unknown whether RBF independently predicts progression to kidney failure in patients with ADPKD. Methods A total of 379 participants with early-stage ADPKD (mean age 36.6 ± 8.5 years; eGFR: 92.9 ± 17.1 ml/min/1.73 m2) who participated in the Halt Progression of Polycystic Kidney Disease Study A (HALT PKD A; NCT00283686) with baseline RBF (phase contrast magnetic resonance imaging) data were included in the primary analysis. Kaplan–Meier survival analysis and multivariate Cox proportional hazard models were used to determine the association of baseline RBF as a continuous and categorical variable with kidney failure risk (during the HALT study and subsequently linked to the US Renal Data System) over a median follow-up period of 13.1 years (interquartile range 7.5–14.5) (primary outcome). All-cause mortality was also considered as a competing risk (Fine and Gray method). The associations of RBF with eGFR slope and the change in height-adjusted total kidney volume (∆htTKV) were evaluated with linear and logistic regression models. Results The kidney failure incidence rate was the highest among those with the lowest RBF tertile {1.90 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.31–2.78] versus 0.34 [95% CI 0.14–0.83] events/100 person-years in tertile 3}. In the fully adjusted model, the lowest RBF tertile was associated with a higher risk of progression to kidney failure [hazard ratio (HR) 3.19 (95% CI 1.05–9.67] versus the highest tertile]. The association of RBF with kidney failure risk was slightly attenuated in adjusted models. All associations remained similar when considering death as a competing risk [HR 0.82 (95% CI 0.67–1.00) per 100 ml/min/1.73 m2 higher RBF]. Higher RBF was associated with a slower eGFR decline and lower odds of rapid annual ∆htTKV. Conclusions Lower baseline RBF independently associates with a greater risk of progression to kidney failure in early-stage patients with ADPKD.

Key Points In autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease, there is a linear relationship between the log-transformed total kidney volume and eGFR. There is a predictable change in the rate of eGFR decline with reduction in kidney growth rate. This framework can be used to determine treatment effect to support accelerated approval of drugs for polycystic kidney disease. Background Total kidney volume (TKV) is accepted by the US Food and Drug Administration as a surrogate end point that is reasonably likely to predict clinical benefit in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease and the most commonly used response biomarker for proof-of-concept intervention trials. However, the magnitude of treatment effect on TKV that would be predictive of a meaningful improvement in a clinical outcome, such as eGFR, is unknown. Inference of this from observational studies has previously been approached by examining interindividual variance in the relationship between TKV and GFR slopes over time. Methods We developed a novel approach to modeling the intraindividual relationship between TKV and eGFR. Patients from the Consortium for Radiologic Imaging Studies of Polycystic Kidney Disease and Halt Progression of Polycystic Kidney Disease Study A dataset were stratified by Mayo Imaging Class (MIC). Linear mixed models were fitted to eGFR with a fixed effect of log(TKV) and random intercepts, and the average slope within each MIC was estimated. Results We found that within each MIC, there is a consistent, linear relationship between log(TKV) and eGFR. The model predicts that within classes 1C–1E, for each 1% point per year reduction in TKV growth rate, the rate of eGFR decline would be reduced by 0.40–0.52 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 per year. Conclusions We have developed a new model that provides a framework for defining the magnitude of treatment effect on TKV that would support accelerated approval of a drug for autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease. Podcast This article contains a podcast at https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/www.asn-online.org/media/podcast/CJASN/2026_05_18_CJASNMay.21.5.51820.mp3

Key Points Data were collected from a cohort of 759 patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease that were followed for a median of 10.2 years. Prognostic models were developed to predict kidney failure using routinely obtained clinical information and externally validated. Risk predictions had good discrimination and calibration over a time horizon of 15 years. Background Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) is a common cause of kidney failure. Progression is highly variable, and accurate prognostic information is needed to guide early treatment decisions. The objective of this study was to develop a multivariable predictive model for progression to kidney failure. Methods We developed prognostic models using Cox regression for the outcome of kidney failure, defined as eGFR <15 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 , dialysis, or kidney transplantation. The development dataset consisted of participants in the Consortium for Radiologic Imaging Studies of Polycystic Kidney Disease (CRISP) and Halt Progression of Polycystic Kidney Disease study A (HALT-A) studies. The validation dataset consisted of patients with ADPKD in the Mayo clinical registry aged 15–49 years, with eGFR ≥60 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 . Predictor variables in the base model were age, sex, creatinine or eGFR, ADPKD genotype, and Mayo Imaging Class. Clinical and laboratory data were evaluated in the full model. Results The development cohort included 759 patients with baseline eGFR of 91±29 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 (mean±SD), of whom 16% reached end point after median (interquartile range) follow-up of 10.2 (5.5–16.7) years. The validation cohort included 535 patients with baseline eGFR of 90±31 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 (mean±SD), of whom 11% reached end point after median (interquartile range) follow-up of 5.5 (1.5–13.7) years. The full model, including age, sex, serum creatinine, Mayo Imaging Class, total carbon dioxide, hemoglobin, diastolic BP, and body mass index, had a C-index of 0.81 (95% confidence interval, 0.72 to 0.90) in the validation cohort and 0.75 (95% confidence interval, 0.62 to 0.88) when ADPKD genotype was also included. Risk predictions from base and full models were well-calibrated out to 15 years. Conclusions In persons with early ADPKD and preserved eGFR, a model using routinely obtained clinical information quantified risk of kidney failure over 15 years.