Abstract Aims Cardiogenic shock (CS) is characterized by impaired left ventricular (LV) mechanical performance and adverse remodelling. We evaluated whether transthoracic echocardiography (TTE)-derived modified cardiac efficiency (mCE), integrating stroke work and residual LV volume, is associated with short- and long-term mortality in CS and whether its prognostic value differs by shock aetiology. Methods and results In this retrospective cohort study, consecutive adults admitted with CS to the cardiac intensive care unit at Mayo Clinic (2007–2018) were included if TTE was performed within 24 h. mCE was calculated as (stroke volume × estimated LV end-systolic pressure) divided by LV end-systolic volume and categorized into quartiles. Primary outcome was in-hospital mortality; secondary outcome was 1-year mortality. Multivariable logistic and Cox models adjusted for illness severity, comorbidity burden, shock aetiology, cardiac arrest, vasoactive therapy, and mechanical circulatory support. Among 667 patients, median mCE was 48 mmHg (IQR 32–74). In-hospital mortality was 28% and increased stepwise across decreasing mCE quartiles. The lowest quartile had a 2.5-fold higher adjusted odds of in-hospital death (OR 2.53; 95%CI: 1.49–4.37; P < 0.001). One-year mortality was 41%; the lowest quartile had a two-fold higher adjusted hazard of death (HR 2.05; 95%CI: 1.45–2.89; P < 0.001). Associations were stronger in acute coronary syndrome-related CS (interaction P = 0.035 for in-hospital; P = 0.015 for 1-year). Within the lowest quartile, reduced systolic pressure further amplified mortality risk. Conclusion Early TTE-derived mCE was independently associated with short- and long-term mortality in CS, particularly in acute coronary syndrome-related CS, and captured the interaction between ventricular remodelling and mechanical performance underlying high-risk phenotypes.
PRANA: A Deep Learning Method for Adapting Polygenic Risk Scores to Diverse Ethnic Groups
Abstract Polygenic risk scores (PRSs), which quantify inherited susceptibility to complex traits and diseases, have emerged as valuable tools for risk stratification and precision medicine. Despite their promise, PRS developed on European cohorts often demonstrate substantially reduced predictive accuracy in non-European populations, due to differences in genetic architecture. The disproportionate representation of European ancestry cohorts in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) leads to inequitable deployment of PRS technologies across diverse populations. Here, we introduce PRANA (Polygenic Risk Adaptation via Neural-network Architecture), a deep learning framework that adapts an existing PRS developed on one population to other ancestries. Unlike methods that require large-scale GWAS in the target population, PRANA leverages pre-trained PRS models derived from European cohorts and adapts them using modestly sized cohorts from the target population. We evaluated PRANA on seven complex traits in South Asian, East Asian and Ashkenazi Jewish populations, as well as in selected smaller East Asian subpopulations where the scarcity of training data poses a particular challenge. PRANA mostly improved predictive performance of the baseline PRS models by 5%-20% in terms of effect size (β) and Nagelkerke’s R², and, in most cases, outperformed existing cross-ancestry multi-PRS approaches. These results highlight PRANA as a scalable and practical strategy to reduce disparities in genomic risk prediction and advance the equitable application of PRS in diverse populations.
Haploidentical transplant, gene therapy, and standard care in sickle cell disease: a cost-effectiveness analysis
Abstract Nonmyeloablative-related haploidentical allogeneic stem cell transplantation (NMAC-HID allo-HSCT) has emerged as an additional treatment to achieve durable remission in sickle cell disease (SCD), a prevalent blood disorder characterized by painful vaso-occlusive crises and chronic anemia. The standard of care (SOC) for SCD includes hydroxyurea, pain management, and blood transfusion, but patients with SCD still lose several decades of life expectancy. Gene therapy (GT) for SCD is the other treatment for lifelong disease amelioration in SCD, with accessibility limited by cost and manufacturing capacity in the United States and globally. Two recent prospective studies that evaluated NMAC-HID allo-HSCT validated haploidentical allotransplantation as an efficacious and accessible treatment option in the era of GT. Given the ongoing price negotiation across jurisdictions for GT implementation and the absence of cost-effectiveness data comparing NMAC-HID allo-HSCT and GT, we conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of NMAC-HID allo-HSCT vs GT vs SOC for adults and children living with SCD. The primary outcomes were the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio and the net monetary benefits across these 3 strategies. The secondary outcome was the maximum cost-effective threshold price for GT compared with NMAC-HID allo-HSCT. Treatment with SOC, NMAC-HID allo-HSCT, and GT accrued 14.3, 20.1, and 22.1 quality-adjusted life-years at costs of $1.22 million, $1.15 million, and $2.75 million, respectively. NMAC-HID allo-HSCT was the cost-effective strategy compared with GT in 100% of 10 000 Monte Carlo iterations across the base case and all scenario analyses. The maximum cost-effective thresholds for GT vs SOC were $1.4 million in the United States and $4200 to $22 000 across India, Nigeria, and Tanzania, depending on willingness-to-pay thresholds.
Cost-effectiveness of iron deficiency screening in pregnancy across ferritin-based thresholds
Abstract Maternal iron deficiency (ID) affects nearly 85% of all pregnancies worldwide by the third trimester and is strongly linked with maternal morbidity, poor birth outcomes, and cognitive and behavioral developmental deficits in children. Despite its burden on maternofetal health, no guidelines exist for routine screening of ID in pregnant individuals in the United States. The World Health Organization uses a diagnostic (ie, nonscreening) ferritin threshold of 15 μg/L for ID in the first trimester of pregnancy, with no guidance for the second and third trimesters. Routine screening for ID in pregnancy could identify a large proportion of mothers who remain undiagnosed and untreated under the current clinical status quo. Accordingly, we conducted, to our knowledge, the first cost-effectiveness analysis of ferritin-based ID screening in pregnant women in the United States, comparing thresholds of (1) 30 μg/L vs (2) 15 μg/L vs (3) no screening from a modified US societal perspective accounting for wages lost to infusion time, infusion administration costs, and the cost of annual hematology follow-up. We found that screening at 30 μg/L was the preferred strategy across extensive base-case, threshold, and sensitivity analyses and across all examined willingness-to-pay thresholds, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $34 000/quality-adjusted life year (QALY; 95% credible interval, $32 000-$36 200/QALY) compared with no screening. No parameter variation changed this outcome, and screening at 30 μg/L was favored in 100% of 10 000 Monte Carlo iterations. Population-level regular second- and third-trimester screening for ID using physiologically informed ferritin ranges should be considered for all pregnant women in the United States.
Cardiac mechanical efficiency as a predictor of in-hospital mortality in patients with cardiogenic shock
Abstract Background Cardiogenic shock (CS) is characterized by critically low cardiac output and impaired myocardial energy transfer to cardiac work. Left-ventricular (LV) cardiac mechanical efficiency (CE), defined as the fraction of total pressure-volume area (PVA) converted to external work (EW), captures how effectively the LV converts energy into stroke work. Because CE integrates load, chamber volumes, and pump performance into a single physiologic construct, it may directly reflect the energy-work mismatch that characterizes CS. The prognostic value of transthoracic echocardiography (TTE)-derived CE for in-hospital outcomes in CS remains uncertain. Purpose To determine whether TTE-derived CE measured within 24 hours of admission predicts in-hospital mortality in patients with CS, and to compare its discriminatory performance with LV ejection fraction (LVEF). Methods Data from CS patients admitted between 2007 and 2018 were analyzed. First LV end-systolic pressure (LVESP=0.9×systolic blood pressure), stroke volume (SV), and LV end-diastolic pressure (LVEDP, estimated using the Nagueh formula) was estimated. CE was then estimated based on EW (EW=(LVESP×SV)−(SV×LVEDP)), potential energy (PE=0.5×LVESP×LV end-systolic volume) and PVA (EW+PE) as CE=EW/PVA×100. We assessed CE and LVEF by TTE performed within 24 hours of admission. Patients were separated into tertiles of CE: high (>47%), moderate (36% < CE ≤47%), and low (CE ≤36%). The primary endpoint was in-hospital mortality. A key secondary endpoint was cardiac intensive care unit (CICU) mortality. Associations were tested with multivariable logistic regression (pre-specified covariates including LVEF). Results A total of 577 patients were included. Median age was 69 (IQR: 59-78) years, 38% were females and 65% had acute coronary syndrome. CICU mortality was 20% and total in-hospital mortality was 29%. Patients with low CE had a lower LVEF compared with patients with moderate or high CE (21% (IQR:19-24%) vs 31% (IQR: 28-33%) and 45% (39-51%) respectively). Median CE was 40.5% (IQR 31.8–51.0%) and was lower for in-hospital deaths (37.1% vs 42.1%, P<0.001). Patients with lower CE exhibited significantly higher CICU (P=0.003) and in-hospital mortality (P<0.001; Figure 1). Patients with CE in the lowest tertile had significantly increased risk of CICU and in-hospital death (Figure 2) compared with moderate or high CE tertiles. In multivariate analysis, every 1% decrease in CE corresponded to an 10% increased risk of CICU death and an 8% increased risk of in-hospital death. When both CE and LVEF were included in the same multivariate model, both were significant predictors of CICU death, while only CE remained a significant predictor of in-hospital death. Conclusion In patients with CS, TTE-derived CE measured within 24 hours of admission predicts early risk of death, underscoring the prognostic importance of LV energy-work coupling as a marker of disease severity beyond LVEF measurement.Figure 1: Figure 2:
Left Ventricular Outflow Tract Diameter Variability and Prosthesis-Patient Mismatch: A Simulation Study
Abstract A recent discussion that highlighted the differences between the reported effective orifice area and corresponding incidence of prosthesis-patient mismatch within the 1- and 7-year results of the PERIcardial SurGical AOrtic Valve ReplacemeNt (PERIGON) Trial of the Avalus valve has once again emphasized the instability of such measurements. The effective orifice area, calculated using the continuity equation through measurements of the left ventricular outflow tract diameter, is highly susceptible to measurement variability, as previously demonstrated in literature through both intra- and interobserver variability. To illustrate this problem, a simulation was performed in which the left ventricular outflow tract diameter was systematically altered by −2 mm, −1 mm, 0 mm, +1 mm, and +2 mm. Subsequently, the proportion of severe prosthesis-patient mismatch was recalculated and varied between 13.3%, 6.2%, 3.1% (original), 1.2%, and 0.3%, respectively. These findings demonstrate that small but clinically realistic variability in left ventricular outflow tract measurements can significantly affect the presence of prosthesis-patient mismatch. A measurement variability of 1 mm can nearly double or halve the prevalence of severe prosthesis-patient mismatch. This illustrates that prosthesis-patient mismatch, in its current form, is highly unstable and that indexed effective orifice area-based prosthesis-patient mismatch should not be used in isolation.
Cost-effectiveness of first-line IV vs oral iron for iron-deficiency anemia in women with heavy menstrual bleeding
Abstract Iron-deficiency anemia (IDA) affects nearly one-third of women globally, with heavy menstrual bleeding (HMB) being a significant risk factor among those of reproductive age. Despite the substantial burden of HMB-related IDA, patients often face delays in receiving effective treatment. Oral iron is typically used as first-line therapy, despite frequent gastrointestinal side effects and challenges in treatment adherence. This study evaluated the reproductive life span cost-effectiveness of first-line intravenous (IV) vs oral iron therapy for women with HMB and IDA. We developed a Markov model simulating a cohort of women aged 18 to 51 years, comparing first-line treatment with IV iron dextran, IV ferumoxytol, IV iron sucrose, or oral ferrous sulfate. Costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were estimated from the societal perspective. IV iron dextran was the cost-effective treatment, yielding 19.26 QALYs at a cost of $157 500, compared with 19.10 QALYs at $152 900 for oral ferrous sulfate. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for IV iron dextran was $28 600 per QALY. Treatment with IV ferumoxytol and iron sucrose cost $158 300 and $163 500, respectively, and did not provide additional QALY benefit compared with IV iron dextran, which remained the cost-effective treatment across a range of scenarios and sensitivity analyses. Our findings indicate that first-line treatment with IV iron dextran is the cost-effective strategy for managing IDA in women with HMB at commonly accepted willingness-to-pay thresholds. These results support expanding access to IV iron as a first-line option, and highlight the need to reduce treatment delays and insurance-related barriers.
Ketamine, Etomidate, and Mortality in Emergency Department Intubations
Importance The choice of induction agent during rapid sequence intubation (RSI) of critically ill adults may affect clinical outcomes. Although ketamine and etomidate are frequently used for RSI, their comparative effectiveness remains controversial. Objective To compare the safety of etomidate vs ketamine for emergency RSI in critically ill adults. Design, Setting, and Participants This cohort study used a target trial emulation with observational data collected between March 1, 2022, and April 30, 2024, from 18 emergency departments across Brazil, with data from the Brazilian Airway Registry Cooperation. Adults who underwent RSI and received either etomidate or ketamine as a sole hypnotic agent were included; those with preintubation cardiac arrest or immediate postintubation transfer were excluded. Exposure Administration of etomidate or ketamine as the induction agent for RSI. Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome was 28-day in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes included 7-day in-hospital mortality, first-attempt intubation success, and major adverse events (new hemodynamic instability, severe hypoxemia, and cardiac arrest) within 30 minutes after intubation. Inverse probability of treatment weighting was used to adjust for confounding. Risk ratios (RRs) and risk differences (RDs) with 95% CIs were used to compare outcomes between groups. Results Among 1810 patients (median age, 64 years [IQR, 50-74 years]; 1048 men [57.9%]), 514 received ketamine and 1296 received etomidate. The median shock index was higher in the ketamine group than the etomidate group (0.81 [IQR, 0.65-1.01] vs 0.76 [IQR, 0.59-0.99]), and preintubation vasopressor use was more common in the ketamine group than the etomidate group (191 of 514 [37.2%] vs 391 of 1296 [30.2%]). Weighted 28-day mortality was higher with etomidate than ketamine (60.5% [95% CI, 57.2%-63.8%] vs 54.4% [95% CI, 45.0%-63.9%]; RR, 1.14 [95% CI, 1.03-1.27]; RD, 7.6% [95% CI, 2.0%-13.3%]). Seven-day mortality was also higher with etomidate than ketamine (35.2% [95% CI, 32.0%-38.3%] vs 30.1% [95% CI, 23.5%-36.7%]; RR, 1.19 [95% CI, 1.04-1.35]). New hemodynamic instability within 30 minutes after intubation was more frequent with ketamine (24.2% [95% CI, 20.4%-28.0%] vs 18.9% [95% CI, 16.7%-21.0%]; RR, 0.78 [0.64-0.95]). There were no statistically significant differences in the other secondary outcomes. Conclusions and Relevance In this cohort study of critically ill adults undergoing RSI, etomidate use was associated with higher in-hospital mortality at 7 and 28 days compared with ketamine. These findings highlight the need for definitive randomized clinical trials to compare both agents.
Raising the bar in maternofetal hematology: Cost-effectiveness of iron deficiency screening in pregnancy across ferritin-based thresholds
Abstract Introduction: Iron deficiency (ID) is among the five leading causes of years lived with disability in women of reproductive age worldwide and affects >50% of pregnancies. Both ID and its terminal sequela, iron deficiency anemia, are associated with adverse maternal-fetal outcomes including postpartum hemorrhage, impaired fetal neurocognitive development, preterm labor, and maternal mortality. At present, no United States (US) guidelines exist for the universal screening of ID in pregnancy. Moreover, diagnostic thresholds for ID established by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC; <15µg/L ferritin in all trimesters) and the World Health Organization (WHO; <15µg/L ferritin in first trimester and no guidance in second or third) fall below more sensitive physiologically-based thresholds of no less than 20-25µg/L ferritin in pregnancy. As such, ID screening and treatment represents an enormous gap in the health of expectant mothers and in which intravenous iron supplementation has been established as an effective and safe treatment option. We sought to address this gap by conducting the first cost-effectiveness analysis of screening ferritin thresholds for ID diagnosis and treatment in pregnancy. Methods: We built a Markov simulation to examine the cost-effectiveness of screening all individuals for iron deficiency in the second and third trimesters of pregnancy with the following strategies: 1) ferritin threshold <30µg/L, 2) ferritin threshold <15µg/L, and 3) status quo (i.e., no screening). The analysis was conducted over a lifetime horizon, from the US health system perspective and across all accepted willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds measured in $ per quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY). Costs were assessed in 2025 USD, inclusive of age- and sex- specific annual healthcare costs informed by the US Medical Expenditures Panel Survey. Age-specific fertility rates were sourced from the US National Vital Statistics Reports and used for model internal validation. The trimester-specific prevalence of ID was informed by the largest published longitudinal prospective cohort study of iron status in pregnant women to date. The probability of iron-related adverse events including anaphylaxis was sourced from the World Health Organization Vigibase data. Aligning with prospective data of ID in pregnancy, women entered the model at age 15 and were screened (or not screened) for ID per treatment strategy during the second and third trimester of each pregnancy in their lifetime. If found to be iron deficient, patients were treated with a single dose of 1g intravenous iron dextran. A separate scenario analysis from a societal perspective also incorporated the cost of wages lost to infusion time. Effectiveness was measured in QALYs and parameterized multiplicatively using age-, sex-, pregnancy-, and ID-specific utility values, exclusively assessing maternal benefit in pregnancy without accounting for any fetal benefit. The primary outcome of interest was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). We conducted deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses, capturing uncertainty across all parameters simultaneously over 10,000 Monte Carlo iterations. Results: Internal model validation demonstrated an average fertility rate of 1.62 [95% credible interval (CI) 1.59-1.65], in line with the US fertility rate of 1.62. Screening for ID with a ferritin threshold of 30µg/L versus 15µg/L versus no screening accrued $213,000, $212,800, and $212,400 and 25.12, 25.11, and 25.09 QALYs per individual, respectively. Screening at a ferritin threshold of 30µg/L was the cost-effective strategy in 100% of 10,000 Monte Carlo iterations, with an ICER of $23,000/QALY [95% CI $20,000-$27,000/QALY], below all accepted WTP thresholds. Screening at 30µg/L remained the cost-effective strategy from a societal perspective, at an ICER of $33,000/QALY [95% CI $29,000-$38,000/QALY]. Deterministic sensitivity analysis revealed that no parameter variations changed this conclusion.Conclusion: The identification and treatment of ID beginning in the second trimester at a ferritin threshold of <30µg/L is the cost-effective intervention, in comparison to a threshold of <15µg/L or no screening. These results fill a critical gap in maternofetal medicine and may help inform the forthcoming American Society of Hematology Clinical Practice Guidelines on the Diagnosis and Treatment of Iron Deficiency.
Home administration of isatuximab subcutaneous by on-body injector in Relapsed/Refractory multiple myeloma in the Phase 3 iraklia study
Abstract Introduction: IRAKLIA (NCT05405166) is an ongoing, global, non-inferiority trial of isatuximab (Isa) subcutaneous (SC) administration plus pomalidomide-dexamethasone (Pd), and the first Phase 3 multiple myeloma (MM) trial using an on-body injector (OBI) for SC administration. In IRAKLIA, Isa SC OBI demonstrated non-inferiority in the 2 co-primary endpoints of efficacy and pharmacokinetics compared with Isa intravenous (IV). Significantly more patients expressed higher satisfaction with Isa SC OBI vs Isa IV in IRAKLIA, and more patients and health care providers (HCPs) preferred Isa SC OBI over Isa SC manual push in the Phase 2 IZALCO trial (NCT05704049). The Isa OBI is a wearable, automated injector that adheres to the skin of the abdomen and administers Isa SC with the push of a button without any batteries or electronics. The Isa SC OBI offers hands-free administration; a small, hidden, retractable needle to prevent sharps injury and reduce patient anxiety; low-pressure delivery; a simplified user interface; and flexible administration in either outpatient or home settings. Here, we examine the safety of Isa SC OBI administered by trained nursing professionals during at-home patient visits in IRAKLIA. Methods In IRAKLIA, patients with relapsed/refractory MM (RRMM) aged ≥18 years with ≥1 prior line of therapy (LOT) were randomized 1:1 to Isa SC OBI (1400 mg; n=263) or IV (10 mg/kg; n=264) weekly in Cycle (C)1, then every 2 weeks + P (4 mg/day, Day [D]1–21) + d (40 mg [20 mg if age ≥75 years] weekly) in 4-week cycles. Home administration by a HCP was proposed as an option after 5 cycles for Isa OBI arm patients on D15 from C6 onward, and D1 visits from C6 remained clinic based. Eligibility for home-administration depended on an absence of infusion reactions (IRs) at C4 and C5, hematology test results at D1 of each cycle, investigator judgement, and patient willingness. During at-home visits, providers prepared and applied Isa SC OBI and safely disposed of the device upon completion. Following at-home administration, providers evaluated the injection site for reactions, took vitals, and completed documentation. No specific monitoring was planned after the end of injections. At-home administration was not allowed in some countries due to local regulations. Results In the ongoing IRAKLIA trial, 202 patients were treated with Isa SC OBI within countries where at-home administration was permissible. 11 (5.4%) of these patients from 5 different countries [Australia (n=6), Hungary (n=2), Italy (n=1), Norway (n=1), and Spain (n=1)] have participated in home administration as of the cutoff date (06-Nov-2024), with additional sites and countries initiated after the cutoff date. First at home administrations started at Cycle 6 for the majority of patients (n =7) and at Cycle 7 (n =1), Cycle 8 (n =2), and Cycle 10 (n =1) for the remaining patients. Among the 11 patients participating in at-home visits, more than half switched to at-home administration and have not returned to the hospital for their next Day 15 cycle visit. 55 injections were performed at home. The median injection duration was the same between clinic and at-home administration (13 minutes). Similar to Isa SC OBI use in the clinic, home administration was well tolerated with no new safety signals and a 100% completed injection rate. No at-home Isa OBI administration was omitted or interrupted during the injection. At-home administration had a very low rate of injection-site reactions (ISR; n=1). The single ISR was a Grade 1 episode consisting of injection swelling, which resolved within the same day, and most subsequent Day 15 administrations were performed at home for this patient. No other adverse events (AEs), including no IRs, were linked to at-home visits. No device event linked to at-home visits was reported. Conclusions Initial data from the ongoing IRAKLIA trial support the safety of at-home administration of Isa SC OBI for the treatment of patients with MM. Home administration was well tolerated, with no safety concerns and a median injection time of 13 minutes consistent with in-clinic use of Isa SC OBI. The option of either home or outpatient administration of Isa SC OBI for patients with MM allows for greater flexibility and accessibility of treatment, with the potential to improve patient care and reduce common barriers to patient retention and therapy compliance.