Sandler, Howard M.

55 Background: To compare the predictive ability of health utility mapping algorithms derived using cross-sectional and longitudinal data specific to the Expanded Prostate Cancer Index Composite (EPIC). Methods: This mapping study utilized data from an international, multicenter, randomized controlled trial of patients with low-risk prostate cancer conducted by NRG Oncology (NCT00331773). Health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) data were collected using EPIC, and health utilities were obtained using EuroQOL-5D (EQ5D) at baseline and 6, 12 and 24 months post-intervention. Data were split into an estimation sample (70%) and a validation sample (30%). Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression models were estimated using baseline cross-sectional data as well as pooled data from all assessment periods. Random effects (RE) specifications that explicitly model the longitudinal nature of the data were also estimated. Candidate models were selected based on root mean square error (RMSE). Results: A total of 196 (147) patients in the estimation sample had complete EQ5D and EPIC domain (subdomain) data at all time points. OLS models using combined data outperformed the counter-part RE models as well as OLS models using baseline data in the five-fold cross-validation. Addition of covariates to the models resulted in improved predictive ability. In the external validation, when only EPIC domain/ subdomain data are available, the OLS model using combined data predicted EQ5D utilities better than the counterpart RE model and OLS model using baseline data (RMSE=0.121108 & 0.111345). OLS model using baseline data outperformed other model types for algorithms with EPIC domains and demographics (RMSE=0.121757), while RE models outperformed the other two model types for algorithms with EPIC subdomains and demographic data, (0.112782) and for algorithms with EPIC domains/ subdomains, demographics, and clinical covariates (RMSE=0.123589 & 0.163093). Conclusions: While algorithms using pooled data outperformed other model types in internal validation, RE models showed better predictive ability in external validation for algorithms with covariates. Clinical trial information: NCT00331773.

327 Background: Though Black men with prostate cancer are more likely to have aggressive disease features than White men, race-specific differences in initial treatment responses in localized disease remains unknown. Methods: Individual patient data were obtained for 9259 patients (including 1674 [18.1%] Black men and 7585 [81.9%] White men) enrolled on eight randomized controlled trials evaluating definitive radiotherapy (RT) ± short-term or long-term androgen deprivation therapy (STADT and LTADT). The primary endpoints were biochemical recurrence (BCR), distant metastasis (DM), and prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM). Fine-Gray subdistribution HR (sHR) models were developed to evaluate the cumulative incidences of all endpoints after stratification by National Comprehensive Cancer Network risk grouping. A meta-analysis was done to estimate pair-wise comparisons of treatments within and between Black and White men, after adjusting for age, Gleason score, clinical T stage, and initial PSA. Results: Black men were more likely to have NCCN high-risk disease at enrollment (656/1674 [39.2%] vs 2506/7585 [33%], p<0.001). However, within the high-risk stratum Black men had lower 10-year rates of BCR (46.1% vs. 50.4%, p=0.02), DM (14% vs. 21.6%, p<0.001), and PCSM (4.9% vs. 9.8%, p<0.001). After adjusting for age and disease characteristics, Black men with high-risk prostate receiving RT+STADT had lower rates of BCR (sHR 0.73, 95% CI 0.62-0.86, p<0.001), DM (sHR 0.64, 95% CI 0.49-0.84, p=0.001) and PCSM (sHR 0.49, 95% CI 0.25-0.95, p=0.04). There were no differences in BCR, DM, or PCSM among men receiving RT+LTADT. The interaction between race and the impact of adding STADT to RT alone on BCR was statistically significant (p=0.003). Conclusions: Black men enrolled on randomized trials with long-term follow-up have higher risk disease at enrollment, but have better BCR, DM, and PCSM outcomes with RT-based therapy compared with White men, particularly with the addition of STADT.

276 Background: Decipher is a genomic classifier (GC) that estimates risk of prostate cancer (PCa) distant metastases (DM) post-radical prostatectomy (RP). Herein, we validate the GC within the context of a randomized phase 3 trial. Methods: RP specimens from patients on the NRG/RTOG 9601 phase 3 placebo-controlled randomized trial of salvage radiotherapy (sRT) +/- 2 years of bicalutamide (NCT00002874) were centrally reviewed and the highest-grade tumor underwent RNA extraction. Samples passing quality control (QC) were run on a clinical-grade whole-transcriptome assay to assign the GC score (scale 0-1). Our NCTN-CCSC approved pre-specified statistical plan (NRG-GU-TS002 CSC0075) included the primary objective of validating the ability of the GC to independently prognosticate the cumulative incidence of DM, with secondary endpoints of prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM) and overall survival (OS). Results: Of patients with tissue available, 352 passed QC and were included for analysis. The final GC cohort was a representative sample of the overall cohort, with a median follow-up of 13 years. On multivariable analysis, the GC (continuous variable) was independently associated with DM (HR 1.19 [95%CI 1.06-1.35], p=0.003), PCSM (HR 1.37 [95%CI 1.18-1.61], p<0.001), and OS (HR 1.16 [95%CI 1.06-1.28], p=0.002) after adjusting for age, race, Gleason score, T-stage, margin status, entry PSA, and treatment arm. The estimated absolute impact of bicalutamide on 12-year OS was less in patients with lower vs higher GC scores (2.4% vs 8.9%), further demonstrated in men receiving early sRT at PSA <0.7 ng/mL (-2.0% vs 5.0%). Conclusions: This is the first validation of this GC in a prospective randomized trial cohort and demonstrates association of the GC with DM and PCSM independent of standard clinicopathologic variables. The GC may help personalize shared decision-making to weigh the absolute benefit from the addition of bicalutamide to sRT.

Background In prostate cancer, end points that reliably portend prognosis and treatment benefit (surrogate end points) can accelerate therapy development. Although surrogate end point candidates have been evaluated in the context of radiotherapy and short-term androgen deprivation (AD), potential surrogates under long-term (24 month) AD, a proven therapy in high-risk localized disease, have not been investigated. Materials and Methods In the NRG/RTOG 9202 randomized trial (N = 1,520) of short-term AD (4 months) versus long-term AD (LTAD; 28 months), the time interval free of biochemical failure (IBF) was evaluated in relation to clinical end points of prostate cancer–specific survival (PCSS) and overall survival (OS). Survival modeling and landmark analysis methods were applied to evaluate LTAD benefit on IBF and clinical end points, association between IBF and clinical end points, and the mediating effect of IBF on LTAD clinical end point benefits. Results LTAD was superior to short-term AD for both biochemical failure (BF) and the clinical end points. Men remaining free of BF for 3 years had relative risk reductions of 39% for OS and 73% for PCSS. Accounting for 3-year IBF status reduced the LTAD OS benefit from 12% (hazard ratio [HR], 0.88; 95% CI, 0.79 to 0.98) to 6% (HR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.83 to 1.07). For PCSS, the LTAD benefit was reduced from 30% (HR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.52 to 0.82) to 6% (HR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.72 to 1.22). Among men with BF, by 3 years, 50% of subsequent deaths were attributed to prostate cancer, compared with 19% among men free of BF through 3 years. Conclusion The IBF satisfied surrogacy criteria and identified the benefit of LTAD on disease-specific survival and OS. The IBF may serve as a valid end point in clinical trials and may also aid in risk monitoring after initial treatment.

3 Background: Previous reports suggested that AAT when combined with salvage RT following RP in patients may improve prostate cancer control outcomes. Methods: Post-RP patients with pT3pN0 or with pT2pN0 and positive margins who had or developed elevated PSA levels from 0.2 to 4.0 ng/ml were randomized on a phase III, double-blind, trial of RT + placebo (64.8 Gy in 36 fractions of 1.8 Gy) vs. RT + AAT (24 months bicalutamide, 150 mg daily) during and after RT. The primary end-point was overall survival. Trial design required 725 patients and provided 80% power to detect a reduction in death rate by at least 28.5% and a 1-sided significance level of 0.046. Results: From 3/98 to 3/03, 761 eligible patients (median age 65) were randomized to RT + AAT (384) or RT + placebo (377). 248 patients (33%) were pT2pN0 and 513 (67%) were pT3pN0. 671 (88%) had a PSA nadir after RP of < 0.5 ng/ml. 649 (85%) had an entry PSA value of <1.6, 112 patients (15%) had an entry PSA of 1.6-4. Median follow up was 12.6 years. Actuarial overall survival at 10 years was 82% for RT plus AAT and 78% for RT + placebo and a hazard ratio of 0.75 (95% CI: 0.58-0.98) with a 1-sided p value of 0.018 (2-sided p = 0.036). The 12-year incidence of PC central-reviewed deaths were 2.3% for RT + AAT and 7.5% for RT + placebo ( p< 0.001).The cumulative incidence of metastatic PC at 12 years was less in the RT + AAT arm, 14% (51 patients), vs. 23% (83 patients) in the RT + placebo arm (p < 0.001). Subgroup analyses of the relative benefits of the addition of AAT to RT are planned and will be presented. Late grade III and IV toxicity were similar in the AAT and placebo arms. The combined grade III and IV toxicities for RT + AAT and RT + placebo were: bladder 7.0% vs. 6.7%, bowel 2.7% vs. 1.6%. Gynecomastia differed significantly by treatment arm, 70% vs. 11%. Conclusions: 24 months of AAT using 150mg bicalutamide daily during and after salvage RT significantly improved long term overall survival and reduced the incidence of metastatic PC and PC death. Support: NCI grants U10CA21661, U10CA180868, U10CA180822, and U10CA37422 and AstraZeneca. Clinical trial information: NCT00002874.

1 Background: To determine whether the efficacy of a hypofractionated (H) schedule is no worse than a conventional (C) schedule in men with low-risk prostate cancer. Methods: From April 2006 to December 2009, one thousand one hundred fifteen men with low-risk prostate cancer (clinical stage T1-2a, Gleason ≤ 6, PSA < 10) were randomly assigned 1:1 to a conventional (C) schedule (73.8 Gy in 41 fractions over 8.2 weeks) or to a hypofractionated (H) schedule (70 Gy in 28 fractions over 5.6 weeks). The trial was designed to establish with 90% power and alpha = 0.05 that (H) results in 5-year disease-free survival (DFS) that is not lower than (C) by more than 7% (hazard ratio (HR) < 1.52). Secondary endpoints include freedom from biochemical recurrence (FFBR) and overall survival. At the third planned interim analysis (July 2015), the NRG Oncology Data Monitoring Committee recommended that the results of the trial be reported. Results: One thousand one hundred and one protocol eligible men were randomized: 547 to C and 554 to H. Median follow-up is 5.9 years. Baseline characteristics are not different according to treatment arm. At the time of analysis 185 DFS events have been observed; 99 in the C arm and 86 in the H arm. The estimated 7-year disease-free survival is 75.6% (95% CI 70.3, 80.1) in the C arm and 81.8% (77.5, 85.3) in the H arm. The DFS HR (C/H) is 0.85 (0.64, 1.14). Comparison of biochemical recurrence (HR = 0.77, (0.51, 1.17)) and overall survival (HR = 0.95, (0.65, 1.41)) also met protocol non-inferiority criteria. Grade ≥ 3 GI toxicity is 3.0% (C) vs. 4.6% (H), Relative risk (RR) for H vs. C 1.53, (95% CI 0.86, 2.83); grade ≥ 3 GU toxicity is 4.5% (C) vs. 6.4% (H), RR = 1.43 (0.86,2.37). Conclusions: In men with low-risk prostate cancer, 70 Gy in 28 fractions over 5.6 weeks is non-inferior to 73.8 Gy in 41 fractions over 8.2 weeks. Clinical trial information: NCT00331773.