Cruz‐Lemini, M.

INTRODUCTION: Several scoring systems predict mortality in alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH), including the Maddrey discriminant function (mDF) and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score developed in the United States, Glasgow alcoholic hepatitis score in the United Kingdom, and age, bilirubin, international normalized ratio, and creatinine score in Spain. To date, no global studies have examined the utility of these scores, nor has the MELD-sodium been evaluated for outcome prediction in AH. In this study, we assessed the accuracy of different scores to predict short-term mortality in AH and investigated additional factors to improve mortality prediction. METHODS: Patients admitted to hospital with a definite or probable AH were recruited by 85 tertiary centers in 11 countries and across 3 continents. Baseline demographic and laboratory variables were obtained. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality at 28 and 90 days. RESULTS: In total, 3,101 patients were eligible for inclusion. After exclusions (n = 520), 2,581 patients were enrolled (74.4% male, median age 48 years, interquartile range 40.9–55.0 years). The median MELD score was 23.5 (interquartile range 20.5–27.8). Mortality at 28 and 90 days was 20% and 30.9%, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for 28-day mortality ranged from 0.776 for MELD-sodium to 0.701 for mDF, and for 90-day mortality, it ranged from 0.773 for MELD to 0.709 for mDF. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for mDF to predict death was significantly lower than all other scores. Age added to MELD obtained only a small improvement of AUC. DISCUSSION: These results suggest that the mDF score should no longer be used to assess AH's prognosis. The MELD score has the best performance in predicting short-term mortality.

Abstract Identifying patients at high risk for acute kidney injury (AKI) during hospitalization among patients admitted with severe alcoholic hepatitis (AH) is an unmet clinical need. We performed a multicentric prospective cohort study using data from 4 different cohorts on well‐characterized patients hospitalized with severe AH. Data collected on 773 AH patients from 4 cohorts across the globe were randomly split into test (n = 390) and validation (n = 383) cohorts. We found that 32% of the patients developed inpatient AKI in the test cohort. Approximately 60% of patients met criteria for systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) at admission. Hepatic encephalopathy, SIRS, and Model for End‐Stage Liver Disease score at admission predicted inpatient AKI with odds ratios of 3.86, 2.24, and 1.14, respectively. The AKI risk score developed using these predictors stratified risk of inpatient AKI to low (score <3), moderate (3‐4), and high (>4). These findings were replicated in the validation cohort. In the whole study cohort, patients with AKI had a lower 90‐day survival (53% versus 77%; P < 0.001). Those with AKI risk score of >4 had significantly lower 90‐day survival as compared with those with risk scores between 3 and 4 and <3 (47% versus 68% versus 88%; P < 0.001). In conclusion, AKI occurs frequently in AH patients and negatively impacts short‐term mortality. The AKI risk score is useful in identifying patients at high risk for inpatient AKI and may be useful for developing new therapeutic strategies to prevent AKI in patients with AH.