Atkinson, Stephen R.

INTRODUCTION: Several scoring systems predict mortality in alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH), including the Maddrey discriminant function (mDF) and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score developed in the United States, Glasgow alcoholic hepatitis score in the United Kingdom, and age, bilirubin, international normalized ratio, and creatinine score in Spain. To date, no global studies have examined the utility of these scores, nor has the MELD-sodium been evaluated for outcome prediction in AH. In this study, we assessed the accuracy of different scores to predict short-term mortality in AH and investigated additional factors to improve mortality prediction. METHODS: Patients admitted to hospital with a definite or probable AH were recruited by 85 tertiary centers in 11 countries and across 3 continents. Baseline demographic and laboratory variables were obtained. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality at 28 and 90 days. RESULTS: In total, 3,101 patients were eligible for inclusion. After exclusions (n = 520), 2,581 patients were enrolled (74.4% male, median age 48 years, interquartile range 40.9–55.0 years). The median MELD score was 23.5 (interquartile range 20.5–27.8). Mortality at 28 and 90 days was 20% and 30.9%, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for 28-day mortality ranged from 0.776 for MELD-sodium to 0.701 for mDF, and for 90-day mortality, it ranged from 0.773 for MELD to 0.709 for mDF. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for mDF to predict death was significantly lower than all other scores. Age added to MELD obtained only a small improvement of AUC. DISCUSSION: These results suggest that the mDF score should no longer be used to assess AH's prognosis. The MELD score has the best performance in predicting short-term mortality.

OBJECTIVES: Severe alcoholic hepatitis (sAH) confers substantial mortality, but the disease course is difficult to predict. As iron parameters are attractive outcome predictors in other liver diseases, we tested their prognostic ability in sAH. METHODS: Serum ferritin, transferrin, iron, transferrin saturation, nontransferrin-bound iron, soluble transferrin receptor, and hepcidin were measured in 828 patients with sAH recruited prospectively through the STOPAH trial. The cohort was randomly divided into exploratory (n = 200) and validation sets (n = 628). RESULTS: Patients with sAH had diminished serum transferrin but increased transferrin saturation. Among iron parameters, baseline transferrin was the best predictor of 28-day (area under the receiver operated characteristic 0.72 [95% confidence interval 0.67–0.78]) and 90-day survival (area under the receiver operated characteristic 0.65 [0.61–0.70]). Transferrin's predictive ability was comparable with the composite scores, namely model of end-stage liver disease, Glasgow alcoholic hepatitis score, and discriminant function, and was independently associated with survival in multivariable analysis. These results were confirmed in a validation cohort. Transferrin did not correlate with markers of liver synthesis nor with non–transferrin-bound iron or soluble transferrin receptor (as markers of excess unbound iron and functional iron deficiency, respectively). DISCUSSION: In patients with sAH, serum transferrin predicts mortality with a performance comparable with commonly used composite scoring systems. Hence, this routinely available parameter might be a useful marker alone or as a component of prognostic models.