Melton, Collin

Abstract Purpose: We recently reported the development of a cell-free DNA (cfDNA) targeted methylation (TM)-based sequencing approach for a multi-cancer early detection (MCED) test that includes cancer signal origin prediction. Here, we evaluated the prognostic significance of cancer detection by the MCED test using longitudinal follow-up data. Experimental Design: As part of a Circulating Cell-free Genome Atlas (CCGA) substudy, plasma cfDNA samples were sequenced using a TM approach, and machine learning classifiers predicted cancer status and cancer signal origin. Overall survival (OS) of cancer participants in the first 3 years of follow-up was evaluated in relation to cancer detection by the MCED test and clinical characteristics. Results: Cancers not detected by the MCED test had significantly better OS (P < 0.0001) than cancers detected, even after accounting for other covariates, including clinical stage and method of clinical diagnosis (i.e., standard-of-care screening or clinical presentation with signs/symptoms). Additionally, cancers not detected by the MCED test had better OS than was expected when data were adjusted for age, stage, and cancer type from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program. In cancers with current screening options, the MCED test also differentiated more aggressive cancers from less aggressive cancers (P < 0.0001). Conclusions: Cancer detection by the MCED test was prognostic beyond clinical stage and method of diagnosis. Cancers not detected by the MCED test had better prognosis than cancers detected and SEER-based expected survival. Cancer detection and prognosis may be linked by the underlying biological factor of tumor fraction in cfDNA.

Abstract CCGA [NCT02889978] is the largest study of cfDNA-based early cancer detection; the first CCGA learnings from multiple cfDNA assays are reported here. This prospective, multi-center, observational study has enrolled 10,012 of 15,000 demographically-balanced participants at 141 sites. Blood was collected from participants with newly diagnosed therapy-naive cancer (C, case) and participants without a diagnosis of cancer (noncancer [NC], control) as defined at enrollment. This preplanned substudy included 878 cases, 580 controls, and 169 assay controls (n=1627) across 20 tumor types and all clinical stages. All samples were analyzed by: 1) Paired cfDNA and white blood cell (WBC)-targeted sequencing (60,000X, 507 gene panel); a joint caller removed WBC-derived somatic variants and residual technical noise; 2) Paired cfDNA and WBC whole-genome sequencing (WGS; 35X); a novel machine learning algorithm generated cancer-related signal scores; joint analysis identified shared events; and 3) cfDNA whole-genome bisulfite sequencing (WGBS; 34X); normalized scores were generated using abnormally methylated fragments. In the targeted assay, non-tumor WBC-matched cfDNA somatic variants (SNVs/indels) accounted for 76% of all variants in NC and 65% in C. Consistent with somatic mosaicism (i.e., clonal hematopoiesis), WBC-matched variants increased with age; several were non-canonical loss-of-function mutations not previously reported. After WBC variant removal, canonical driver somatic variants were highly specific to C (e.g., in EGFR and PIK3CA, 0 NC had variants vs 11 and 30, respectively, of C). Similarly, of 8 NC with somatic copy number alterations (SCNAs) detected with WGS, 4 were derived from WBCs. WGBS data revealed informative hyper- and hypo-fragment level CpGs (1:2 ratio); a subset was used to calculate methylation scores. A consistent “cancer-like” signal was observed in <1% of NC participants across all assays (representing potential undiagnosed cancers). An increasing trend was observed in NC vs stages I-III vs stage IV (nonsyn. SNVs/indels per Mb [Mean±SD] NC: 1.01±0.86, stages I-III: 2.43±3.98; stage IV: 6.45±6.79; WGS score NC: 0.00±0.08, I-III: 0.27±0.98; IV: 1.95± 2.33; methylation score NC: 0±0.50; I-III: 1.02±1.77; IV: 3.94±1.70). These data demonstrate the feasibility of achieving >99% specificity for invasive cancer, and support the promise of cfDNA assay for early cancer detection. Additional data will be presented on detected plasma:tissue variant concordance and on multi-assay modeling. Citation Format: Alexander A. Aravanis, Geoffrey R. Oxnard, Tara Maddala, Earl Hubbell, Oliver Venn, Arash Jamshidi, Ling Shen, Hamed Amini, John A. Beausang, Craig Betts, Daniel Civello, Konstantin Davydov, Saniya Fazullina, Darya Filippova, Sante Gnerre, Samuel Gross, Chenlu Hou, Roger Jiang, Byoungsok Jung, Kathryn Kurtzman, Collin Melton, Shivani Nautiyal, Jonathan Newman, Joshua Newman, Cosmos Nicolaou, Richard Rava, Onur Sakarya, Ravi Vijaya Satya, Seyedmehdi Shojaee, Kristan Steffen, Anton Valouev, Hui Xu, Jeanne Yue, Nan Zhang, Jose Baselga, Rosanna Lapham, Daron G. Davis, David Smith, Donald Richards, Michael V. Seiden, Charles Swanton, Timothy J. Yeatman, Robert Tibshirani, Christina Curtis, Sylvia K. Plevritis, Richard Williams, Eric Klein, Anne-Renee Hartman, Minetta C. Liu. Development of plasma cell-free DNA (cfDNA) assays for early cancer detection: first insights from the Circulating Cell-Free Genome Atlas Study (CCGA) [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2018; 2018 Apr 14-18; Chicago, IL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2018;78(13 Suppl):Abstract nr LB-343.