Gregson, John

Background: Acute myocarditis is an inflammatory condition that may herald the onset of dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) or arrhythmogenic cardiomyopathy (ACM). We investigated the frequency and clinical consequences of DCM and ACM genetic variants in a population-based cohort of patients with acute myocarditis. Methods: This was a population-based cohort of 336 consecutive patients with acute myocarditis enrolled in London and Maastricht. All participants underwent targeted DNA sequencing for well-characterized cardiomyopathy-associated genes with comparison to healthy controls (n=1053) sequenced on the same platform. Case ascertainment in England was assessed against national hospital admission data. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Results: Variants that would be considered pathogenic if found in a patient with DCM or ACM were identified in 8% of myocarditis cases compared with <1% of healthy controls ( P =0.0097). In the London cohort (n=230; median age, 33 years; 84% men), patients were representative of national myocarditis admissions (median age, 32 years; 71% men; 66% case ascertainment), and there was enrichment of rare truncating variants (tv) in ACM-associated genes (3.1% of cases versus 0.4% of controls; odds ratio, 8.2; P =0.001). This was driven predominantly by DSP -tv in patients with normal LV ejection fraction and ventricular arrhythmia. In Maastricht (n=106; median age, 54 years; 61% men), there was enrichment of rare truncating variants in DCM-associated genes, particularly TTN -tv, found in 7% (all with left ventricular ejection fraction <50%) compared with 1% in controls (odds ratio, 3.6; P =0.0116). Across both cohorts over a median of 5.0 years (interquartile range, 3.9–7.8 years), all-cause mortality was 5.4%. Two-thirds of deaths were cardiovascular, attributable to worsening heart failure (92%) or sudden cardiac death (8%). The 5-year mortality risk was 3.3% in genotype-negative patients versus 11.1% for genotype-positive patients ( P adjusted =0.08). Conclusions: We identified DCM- or ACM-associated genetic variants in 8% of patients with acute myocarditis. This was dominated by the identification of DSP -tv in those with normal left ventricular ejection fraction and TTN -tv in those with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction. Despite differences between cohorts, these variants have clinical implications for treatment, risk stratification, and family screening. Genetic counseling and testing should be considered in patients with acute myocarditis to help reassure the majority while improving the management of those with an underlying genetic variant.

Abstract Aims More evidence is needed to quantify the association between tricuspid regurgitation (TR) and mortality in patients with heart failure (HF). Methods and results Between 2008–2017, using the Optum longitudinal database, a patient-level database that integrates multiple US-based electronic health and claim records from several health care providers, we identified 435 679 patients with new HF diagnosis and both an assessment of the left ventricular ejection fraction and at least 1 year of history. TR was graded as mild, moderate or severe and classified as prevalent (at the time of the initial HF diagnosis) or incident (subsequent new cases thereafter). For prevalent TR, the analysis was performed using a Cox proportional hazards model with adjustment for patient covariates. Incident TR was modelled as a time-updated covariate, as were other non-fatal events during follow-up. Prevalence of mild, moderate and severe TR at baseline was 10.1%, 5.1% and 1.4%, respectively. Over a median follow-up of 1.5 years, 121 273 patients (27.8%) died and prevalent TR was independently associated with survival. Compared to patients with no TR at baseline, the adjusted hazard ratios for mortality were 0.99 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.97–1.01], 1.17 (95% CI 1.14–1.20) and 1.34 (95% CI 1.28–1.39) for mild, moderate and severe TR, respectively. In the 363 270 patients free from TR at baseline, incident TR (at least mild, at least moderate, or severe) developed during follow-up in 12.1%, 5.1% and 1.1%, respectively. Adjusted mortality hazard ratios for such new cases were 1.48 (95% CI 1.44–1.52), 1.92 (95% CI 1.86–1.99) and 2.44 (95% CI 2.32–2.57), respectively. Findings were consistent across all patient subgroups based on age, gender, rhythm, associated comorbidities, prior cardiac surgery, B-type natriuretic peptide/N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, and left ventricular ejection fraction. Conclusions In this large contemporary patient-level database of almost half-million US patients with HF, TR was associated with a marked increases in mortality risk overall and in all subgroups. Future randomized controlled trials will evaluate the impact of TR correction on clinical outcomes and the causal relationship between TR and mortality.

Abstract Background The effectiveness of carotid endarterectomy (CEA) for stroke prevention depends on low procedural risks. The aim of this study was to assess the frequency and timing of procedural complications after CEA, which may clarify underlying mechanisms and help inform safe discharge policies. Methods Individual-patient data were obtained from four large carotid intervention trials (VACS, ACAS, ACST-1 and GALA; 1983–2007). Patients undergoing CEA for asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis directly after randomization were used for the present analysis. Timing of procedural death and stroke was divided into intraoperative day 0, postoperative day 0, days 1–3 and days 4–30. Results Some 3694 patients were included in the analysis. A total of 103 patients (2·8 per cent) had serious procedural complications (18 fatal strokes, 68 non-fatal strokes, 11 fatal myocardial infarctions and 6 deaths from other causes) [Correction added on 20 April, after first online publication: the percentage value has been corrected to 2·8]. Of the 86 strokes, 67 (78 per cent) were ipsilateral, 17 (20 per cent) were contralateral and two (2 per cent) were vertebrobasilar. Forty-five strokes (52 per cent) were ischaemic, nine (10 per cent) haemorrhagic, and stroke subtype was not determined in 32 patients (37 per cent). Half of the strokes happened on the day of CEA. Of all serious complications recorded, 44 (42·7 per cent) occurred on day 0 (20 intraoperative, 17 postoperative, 7 with unclear timing), 23 (22·3 per cent) on days 1–3 and 36 (35·0 per cent) on days 4–30. Conclusion At least half of the procedural strokes in this study were ischaemic and ipsilateral to the treated artery. Half of all procedural complications occurred on the day of surgery, but one-third after day 3 when many patients had been discharged.

Background and Purpose— This analysis was performed to assess the association between perioperative and clinical variables and the 30-day risk of stroke or death after carotid endarterectomy for symptomatic carotid stenosis. Methods— Individual patient-level data from the 5 largest randomized controlled carotid trials were pooled in the Carotid Stenosis Trialists’ Collaboration database. A total of 4181 patients who received carotid endarterectomy for symptomatic stenosis per protocol were included. Determinants of outcome included carotid endarterectomy technique, type of anesthesia, intraoperative neurophysiological monitoring, shunting, antiplatelet medication, and clinical variables. Stroke or death within 30 days after carotid endarterectomy was the primary outcome. Adjusted risk ratios (aRRs) were estimated in multilevel multivariable analyses using a Poisson regression model. Results— Mean age was 69.5±9.2 years (70.7% men). The 30-day stroke or death rate was 4.3%. In the multivariable regression analysis, local anesthesia was associated with a lower primary outcome rate (versus general anesthesia; aRR, 0.70 [95% CI, 0.50–0.99]). Shunting (aRR, 1.43 [95% CI, 1.05–1.95]), a contralateral high-grade carotid stenosis or occlusion (aRR, 1.58 [95% CI, 1.02–2.47]), and a more severe neurological deficit (mRS, 3–5 versus 0–2: aRR, 2.51 [95% CI, 1.30–4.83]) were associated with higher primary outcome rates. None of the other characteristics were significantly associated with the perioperative stroke or death risk. Conclusions— The current results indicate lower perioperative stroke or death rates in patients operated upon under local anesthesia, whereas a more severe neurological deficit and a contralateral high-grade carotid stenosis or occlusion were identified as potential risk factors. Despite a possible selection bias and patients not having been randomized, these findings might be useful to guide surgeons and anesthetists when treating patients with symptomatic carotid disease.

Background: Over the past decades, stroke risk associated with carotid disease has decreased, reflecting improvements in medical therapy and a more rigorous control of vascular risk factors. It is less clear whether the procedural risk of carotid revascularization has declined over time. Methods: We analyzed temporal changes in procedural risks among 4597 patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis treated with carotid artery stenting (n=2326) or carotid endarterectomy (n=2271) in 4 randomized trials between 2000 and 2008, using generalized linear mixed-effects models with a random intercept for each source trial. Models were additionally adjusted for age and other baseline characteristics predicting treatment risk. The primary outcome event was any procedural stroke or death, occurring during or within 30 days after revascularization. Results: The procedural stroke or death risk decreased significantly over time in all patients (unadjusted odds ratio per year, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.85–0.97; P =0.006). This effect was driven by a decrease in the carotid endarterectomy group (unadjusted odds ratio per year, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.73–0.92; P =0.003), whereas no significant decrease was found after carotid artery stenting (unadjusted odds ratio, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.88–1.04; P =0.33). Carotid endarterectomy patients had a lower procedural stroke or death risk compared with carotid artery stenting patients, and the difference significantly increased over time (interaction P =0.031). After adjustment for baseline characteristics, the results remained essentially the same. Conclusions: The risk of stroke or death associated with carotid endarterectomy for symptomatic carotid stenosis decreased over an 8-year period, independent of clinical predictors of procedural risk. No corresponding reduction in procedural risk was seen in patients treated with stenting. Clinical Trial Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov ; http://www.isrctn.com . Unique identifier: NCT00190398 (EVA-3S), NCT00004732 (CREST), ISRCTN57874028 (SPACE), and ISRCTN25337470 (ICSS).

Introduction: A 3.4% (95% CI: 2.1% to 4.7%) higher peri-procedural stroke and death risk has been previously documented for those treated with carotid artery stenting (CAS) relative to those treated with carotid endarterectomy (CEA). However, the CAS versus CEA treatment differences in long-term outcomes and the post-procedure durability have not been described. Methods: Data from the 4 largest CAS-versus-CEA randomized trials for treatment of symptomatic carotid atherosclerosis (EVA-3S, SPACE, ICSS, and CREST) were pooled, and treatment differences assessed for the outcome of any stroke or death during a 120-day peri-procedural period, plus ipsilateral stroke afterward. Results: Long-term follow-up was analysed for 4754 patients. Median length of follow-up across the studies ranged from 2.0 to 6.9 years, with 88 peri-procedural and 55 post-procedural events among those CEA-treated, and 169 and 64 for those CAS-treated. After the peri-procedural period, the annual rates of stroke following CAS was 0.6% (95% CI: 0.5 to 0.8) and following CEA 0.6% (95% CI: 0.5 to 0.8), resulting in non-significant durability differences of less than 1% over the period extending up to 9 years (see Table). The previously-documented 3.4% higher peri-procedural event rate in the CAS group contributed to a significant 3.1% (95% CI: 1.6% to 4.7%) treatment difference at 1-year, and the aforementioned similar durability implied that this significant difference remained relatively constant over the period extending up to 9 years (see table). Conclusions: The post-procedure durability of CAS and CEA were similar, both with event rates below 1%. The similarity of post-procedure events rates implies that the previously-documented higher peri-procedural in the CAS group is “carried forward” with a higher risk of outcomes extending to 9-years.

Background and Purpose— We investigated whether procedural stroke or death risk of carotid artery stenting (CAS) compared with carotid endarterectomy (CEA) is different in patients with and without history of coronary heart disease (CHD) and whether the treatment-specific impact of age differs. Methods— We combined individual patient data of 4754 patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis from 4 randomized trials (EVA-3S [Endarterectomy Versus Angioplasty in Patients With Symptomatic Severe Carotid Stenosis], SPACE [Stent-Protected Angioplasty Versus Carotid Endarterectomy], ICSS [International Carotid Stenting Study], and CREST [Carotid Revascularization Endarterectomy Versus Stenting Trial]). Procedural risk was defined as any stroke or death ≤30 days after treatment. We compared procedural risk between both treatments with Cox regression analysis, stratified by history of CHD and age (<70, 70–74, ≥75 years). History of CHD included myocardial infarction, angina, or coronary revascularization. Results— One thousand two hundred ninety-three (28%) patients had history of CHD. Procedural stroke or death risk was higher in patients with history of CHD. Procedural risk in patients treated with CAS compared with CEA was consistent in patients with history of CHD (8.3% versus 4.6%; hazard ratio [HR], 1.96; 95% CI, 0.67–5.73) and in those without (6.9% versus 3.6%; HR, 1.93; 95% CI, 1.40–2.65; P interaction =0.89). In patients with history of CHD, procedural risk was significantly higher after CAS compared with CEA in patients aged ≥75 (CAS-to-CEA HR, 2.78; 95% CI, 1.32–5.85), but not in patients aged <70 (HR, 1.71; 95% CI, 0.79–3.71) and 70 to 74 years (HR, 1.09; 95% CI, 0.45–2.65). In contrast, in patients without history of CHD, procedural risk after CAS was higher in patients aged 70 to 74 (HR, 3.62; 95% CI, 1.80–7.29) and ≥75 years (HR, 2.64; 95% CI, 1.52–4.59), but equal in patients aged <70 years (HR, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.63–1.73; 3-way P interaction =0.09). Conclusions— History of CHD does not modify procedural stroke or death risk of CAS compared with CEA. CAS might be as safe as CEA in patients with history of CHD aged <75 years, whereas for patients without history of CHD, risk after CAS compared with CEA was only equal in those aged <70 years.

Background and Purpose— Stenting for symptomatic carotid stenosis (carotid artery stenting [CAS]) carries a higher risk of procedural stroke or death than carotid endarterectomy (CEA). It is unclear whether this extra risk is present both on the day of procedure and within 1 to 30 days thereafter and whether clinical risk factors differ between these periods. Methods— We analyzed the risk of stroke or death occurring on the day of procedure (immediate procedural events) and within 1 to 30 days thereafter (delayed procedural events) in 4597 individual patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis who underwent CAS (n=2326) or CEA (n=2271) in 4 randomized trials. Results— Compared with CEA, patients treated with CAS were at greater risk for immediate procedural events (110 versus 42; 4.7% versus 1.9%; odds ratio, 2.6; 95% CI, 1.9–3.8) but not for delayed procedural events (59 versus 46; 2.5% versus 2.0%; odds ratio, 1.3; 95% CI, 0.9–1.9; interaction P =0.006). In patients treated with CAS, age increased the risk for both immediate and delayed events while qualifying event severity only increased the risk of delayed events. In patients treated with CEA, we found no risk factors for immediate events while a higher level of disability at baseline and known history of hypertension were associated with delayed procedural events. Conclusions— The increased procedural stroke or death risk associated with CAS compared with CEA was caused by an excess of events occurring on the day of procedure. This finding demonstrates the need to enhance the procedural safety of CAS by technical improvements of the procedure and increased operator skill. Higher age increased the risk for both immediate and delayed procedural events in CAS, mechanisms of which remain to be elucidated. Clinical Trial Registration— URL: https://clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT00190398. URL: http://www.isrctn.com . Unique identifier: ISRCTN57874028. URL: http://www.isrctn.com . Unique identifier: ISRCTN25337470. URL: https://clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT00004732.

Background and Purpose— Prediction models may help physicians to stratify patients with high and low risk for periprocedural complications or long-term stroke risk after carotid artery stenting or carotid endarterectomy. We aimed to evaluate external performance of previously published prediction models for short- and long-term outcome after carotid revascularization in patients with symptomatic carotid artery stenosis. Methods— From a literature review, we selected all prediction models that used only readily available patient characteristics known before procedure initiation. Follow-up data from 2184 carotid artery stenting and 2261 carotid endarterectomy patients from 4 randomized trials (EVA-3S [Endarterectomy Versus Angioplasty in Patients With Symptomatic Severe Carotid Stenosis], SPACE [Stent-Protected Angioplasty Versus Carotid Endarterectomy], ICSS [International Carotid Stenting Study], and CREST [Carotid Revascularization Endarterectomy Versus Stenting Trial]) were used to validate 23 short-term outcome models to estimate stroke or death risk ≤30 days after the procedure and the original outcome measure for which the model was developed. Additionally, we validated 7 long-term outcome models for the original outcome measure. Predictive performance of the models was assessed with C statistics and calibration plots. Results— Stroke or death ≤30 days after the procedure occurred in 158 (7.2%) patients after carotid artery stenting and in 84 (3.7%) patients after carotid endarterectomy. Most models for short-term outcome after carotid artery stenting (n=4) or carotid endarterectomy (n=19) had poor discriminative performance (C statistics ranging from 0.49–0.64) and poor calibration with small absolute risk differences between the lowest and highest risk groups and overestimation of risk in the highest risk groups. Long-term outcome models (n=7) had a slightly better performance with C statistics ranging from 0.59 to 0.67 and reasonable calibration. Conclusions— Current models did not reliably predict outcome after carotid revascularization in a trial population of patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis. In particular, prediction of short-term outcome seemed to be difficult. Further external validation of existing prediction models or development of new prediction models is needed before such models can be used to support treatment decisions in individual patients.