Waddle, Mark R.

Abstract PURPOSE Vertebral compression fracture (VCF) is a potential adverse effect following stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) for spinal metastases. In this analysis, we developed and internally validated a risk stratification model for VCF. METHODS From an initial set of 680 treatments, we excluded those with proton therapy, prior surgical intervention, or missing data. The final dataset had 464 treatments in 313 patients. Delineations of VCF and all radiographic components of the spinal instability neoplastic score (SINS) were determined by a radiologist. Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) was conducted using separate training (70%), internal validation (15%), and test (15%) sets. The log-rank test was used as the criterion for node splitting. RESULTS With a median follow-up of 21 months, we identified 84 VCF (18%), including 65 (77%) de novo and 19 (23%) progressive fractures. There was a median 9 months (IQR: 3 – 21) to VCF. From an initial set of 15 candidate variables, six were identified using the backwards selection method, feature importance testing, and a correlation heatmap. Four were then selected in the highest-fidelity RPA models: epidural tumor extension, lumbar location, gross tumor volume > 10 cc, and SINS > 6. One point was assigned to each variable, and the resulting multivariate Cox model had a concordance of 0.760. Each one point increase in score was associated with increasing rates of VCF. Low-risk lesions (score: 0-1, n=273) had 2-year freedom from VCF of 92%, compared to 80% for intermediate-risk (score: 2, n=99) and 56% (score: 3-4, n=92) for high-risk lesions (p < 0.0001). Cumulative incidence curves with death as a competing risk showed increased VCF with higher scores via Gray’s test (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS Our internally-validated model identifies a subgroup of patients with high risk for VCF who may benefit from prophylactic surgical stabilization or vertebroplasty.

Abstract Medulloblastoma is a posterior fossa tumor rarely diagnosed in adults. Treatment includes craniospinal irradiation (CSI). Proton CSI is increasingly utilized to decrease radiation dose to normal tissues, despite the lack of randomized data demonstrating decreased toxicity compared to photon CSI. This single institution retrospective study of 39 adult medulloblastoma patients includes nineteen patients treated with photon CSI prior to 2015, and twenty treated with proton CSI thereafter. Median age was 28 years (range 18-66). Molecular subtype was most commonly sonic hedgehog (68%). The most common fractionation schedule was 36 Gy CSI in 20 fractions (85% of photon and 58% of proton patients) with a boost to 54-55.8 Gy (92%). Proton CSI delivered significantly lower mean doses to the cochleae (median 32 Gy vs. 44 Gy), lacrimal glands (8 vs. 36 Gy), lens (2 vs. 28 Gy), parotid glands (3 vs. 26 Gy), pharyngeal constrictors (6 vs. 15 Gy), esophagus (2 vs. 29 Gy), heart (0 vs. 14 Gy), lungs (1 vs. 7 Gy), liver (0.1 vs. 7 Gy), and skin (38 vs. 51 Gy) (all p< 0.001). Patients receiving proton CSI had significantly lower rates of acute dysphagia of any grade (5% vs. 35%, p= 0.044) and decreased median weight loss during radiation (+1.0 vs. -2.8 kg, p= 0.011). Acute hospitalization was associated with increased weight loss (p= 0.009). Median follow-up was 2.9 and 12.9 years for proton and photon patients, respectively, limiting late toxicity and outcome comparisons. At last follow-up five photon patients had died (two of progressive disease, three without recurrence ages 41-63) and 21% had experienced major cardiovascular events. At 10 years, 89% were alive and 82% were recurrence free. In conclusion, this study demonstrates dosimetric improvements with proton CSI, potentially leading to decreased acute toxicity including dysphagia and weight loss during treatment.

PURPOSE: Routine use of extended-fraction (> 10 fractions) radiation therapy (RT) for palliation of bone metastases is recognized as a low-value intervention by the American Society for Radiation Oncology. We examined contemporary practice patterns of, and physician characteristics associated with extended-fraction RT use. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using Medicare fee-for-service data. We included patients who underwent 2- or 3-dimensional external-beam RT for bone metastases between January 1, 2016, and December 31, 2018. Physicians treating > 10 patients over the study period were analyzed for their individual practice. Hierarchic logistic regression modeling was used to identify patient- and physician-level factors associated with extended-fraction RT use. RESULTS: A total of 12,221 patients (median age, 75.6 years; 40.9% women, 87.6% white) were included. The rate of extended-fraction RT was 23.4%. A total of 1,432 physicians treated any patient. Among the 382 physicians treating > 10 patients, 127 (33.2%) used extended-fraction RT > 30% (consensus threshold). Physician factors associated with decreased odds of extended-fraction RT were years since medical school graduation (≤ 10 years and 11-20 years v ≥ 31 years: adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.32 [95% CI, 0.20 to 0.51] and 0.64 [95% CI, 0.44 to 0.93]) and practicing in the Northeast or Midwest versus the South (aOR, 0.36 [95% CI, 0.22 to 0.58] and 0.48 [95% CI, 0.31 to 0.74]). Physicians treating > 20 patients ( v 11-14 patients) over the study period had increased odds of delivering extended-fraction RT (aOR, 1.53 [95% CI, 1.10 to 2.12]). CONCLUSION: In this study, almost one fourth of patients received extended-fraction RT, and one third of physicians had an extended-fraction RT use rate of > 30%. Personalized feedback of performance data, clinical pathways and peer review, and updated reimbursement models are potential mechanisms to address this low-value care.

PURPOSE: Quality payment programs aim to adjust payments on the basis of quality and cost; however, few quality metrics exist in radiation oncology. This study evaluates and predicts the top spenders (TS) after radiation therapy (RT). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patient characteristics, cancer details, treatments, toxicity, and survival data were collected for patients treated with RT at Mayo Clinic from 2007 to 2016. Standardized costs were obtained and adjusted for inflation. TSs were identified as those with greater than 93rd percentile costs (≥ $120,812). Prediction models were developed to predict TSs using training and validation sets using information available at consultation, after RT, and at last follow-up. RESULTS: A total of 15,131 patients were included and 1,065 TSs identified. Mean cost overall was $55,290 (median, $39,996) for all patients. Prediction models 1, 2, and 3 had concordance statistics of 0.83 to 0.83, 0.85 to 0.85, and 0.87 to 0.88, respectively in training and validation, indicating excellent prediction of TSs. Factors that were most predictive of TSs included stage N/A and stage 4 ( v stage 0; odds ratio [OR], 18.23 and 8.44, respectively; P < .001); hematologic, upper GI, skin and lung cancers ( v breast; OR, 11.45, 7.69, 3.81, and 2.43, respectively; P < .01); immunotherapy, surgery, and chemotherapy use (OR, 4.36, 2.51, and 1.61, respectively; P < .01); hospitalizations within 90 days of RT (OR, 2.26; P < .01); or death during the episode (OR, 1.56; P < .01). CONCLUSION: This is the first study of its kind to predict with high accuracy the highest spenders in radiation oncology. These patients may benefit from pre-emptive management to mitigate costs, or may require exclusion or adjustment from quality payment programs.

PURPOSE The purpose of this study was to determine if dose de-escalation from 60 to 66 Gy to 30 to 36 Gy of adjuvant radiotherapy (RT) for selected patients with human papillomavirus–associated oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma could maintain historical rates for disease control while reducing toxicity and preserving swallow function and quality of life (QOL). PATIENTS AND METHODS MC1273 was a single-arm phase II trial testing an aggressive course of RT de-escalation after surgery. Eligibility criteria included patients with p16-positive oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma, smoking history of 10 pack-years or less, and negative margins. Cohort A (intermediate risk) received 30 Gy delivered in 1.5-Gy fractions twice per day over 2 weeks along with 15 mg/m 2 docetaxel once per week. Cohort B included patients with extranodal extension who received the same treatment plus a simultaneous integrated boost to nodal levels with extranodal extension to 36 Gy in 1.8-Gy fractions twice per day. The primary end point was locoregional tumor control at 2 years. Secondary end points included 2-year progression-free survival, overall survival, toxicity, swallow function, and patient-reported QOL. RESULTS Accrual was from September 2013 to June 2016 (N = 80; cohort A, n = 37; cohort B, n = 43). Median follow-up was 36 months, with a minimum follow-up of 25 months. The 2-year locoregional tumor control rate was 96.2%, with progression-free survival of 91.1% and overall survival of 98.7%. Rates of grade 3 or worse toxicity at pre-RT and 1 and 2 years post-RT were 2.5%, 0%, and 0%. Swallowing function improved slightly between pre-RT and 12 months post-RT, with one patient requiring temporary feeding tube placement. CONCLUSION Aggressive RT de-escalation resulted in locoregional tumor control rates comparable to historical controls, low toxicity, and little decrement in swallowing function or QOL.

6633 Background: Quality based payment programs in medicine are currently being introduced nationally, aimed to improve care and reduce cost. This study aimed to evaluate the top spenders (TS) after cancer diagnosis and predict TS at two separate time points using predictive analytics. Methods: Patient characteristics, cancer details, treatments, adverse events, and outcomes were collected for patients treated for cancer at Mayo Clinic from 2007 - 2017. Standardized costs over a 2 year period after first treatment were obtained from the Mayo Clinic Cost Data Warehouse with Medicare reimbursements assigned to all services and adjusted to the 2017 GDP Implicit Price Deflator for inflation. TS were identified as those with greater than 93rd percentile costs (≥$113,158) due to a sharp rise in cost at that level. Descriptive statistics and univariate analysis were used for comparison. A prediction model with a training (80%) and validation set (20%) using multivariate selection was used to predict TS and was repeated using information available at 1) the time of consultation and 2) at last follow-up. Results: A total of 80,385 patients were included and 5,626 TS were identified. Mean cost (25th, 75th percentile) overall was $44,953 ($16,776, $51,889). Prediction models at time 1 and 2 had ROC AUC statistics of 0.82 and 0.89 in training and 0.82 and 0.88 in the validation indicating good prediction of high costs. Factors most predictive of TS included need for blood transfusions within 90 days of treatment (OR 5.3), bone marrow transplant (OR 4.0), mild liver disease (OR 3.5), hemiplegia (OR 3.4), weight loss > 10% within 90 days of treatment (OR 3.3), upper GI cancer (OR 3.0), ‘other’ cancer type (OR 2.8), immunotherapy use (OR 2.7), and hospitalizations within 90 days (OR 2.4), all p < 0.001, among others. The largest costs were due to hospital services in the TS and non-TS groups, mean costs $114,258 and $13,185 respectively. Conclusions: This is the first study to predict with high accuracy the top spenders in Oncology. Patient comorbidities and toxicities were among the strongest predictors of high costs, along with certain treatments (bone marrow transplant and immunotherapy). Our findings suggest that quality payment programs should adjust for comorbidities, and that reducing toxicity may be an effective method at reducing costs.

625 Background: Leverage the National Cancer Database (NCDB) to evaluate trends in management of squamous cell cancer (SCC) of the rectum and their effect on survival for this uncommon tumor. Methods: Data was obtained from the NCDB for patients diagnosed with SCC of the rectum between 2004 and 2014, including cT1-4, cN0-2, cM0 (cohort A, n = 2,296) tumors. A subgroup analysis was performed on locally advanced tumors (cT1-T2, N+ or cT3, N any, subcohort B, n = 883), treated with chemoradiation (n = 706) or trimodality therapy (n = 177) including chemotherapy, radiation, and surgery. Pathological complete response rate following neoadjuvant therapy was obtained. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to generate hazard ratios (HR) investigating factors associated with overall survival. Kaplan-Meier (K-M) method was used to estimate overall surviving proportion at 5 and 10 years. Results: The median age was 60 years with a strong female predilection (71% female). Among patients treated with neoadjuvant therapy, 36% achieved a complete pathological response at a median interval of 67 days from completion of radiation therapy to surgery. The K-M estimated 5 and 10 year overall survival for stage I disease was 71.3% and 57.8%, respectively; stage II disease was 57.0% and 38.9%, respectively; stage III disease was 57.8% and 41.5%, respectively. On multivariate analysis, increased age, male gender, more co-morbidities, and higher cT category ( P < 0.001 for each) resulted in worse survival. For locally advanced tumors (subcohort B), there was no difference in survival between chemoradiation alone compared to trimodality therapy ( P = 0.909 on multivariate analysis). Conclusions: Most providers manage locally advanced SCC of the rectum similar to anal cancer, which results in equivalent overall survival and spares patients from the additional morbidity associated with surgical resection. [Table: see text]

145 Background: Palliative radiation treatment (pRT) is used for symptomatic bone metastases (mets). Several fractionation schedules show equal efficacy for pain relief, and ASTRO’s Choosing Wisely recommends 8Gy x1, 4Gy x5, or 3Gy x10. This study aims to investigate the cost implications of pRT for bone mets. Methods: Patients (Pts) treated with pRT for bone mets at Mayo Clinic from 2007 - 2016 were included in this study. Costs for all services were subdivided into RT and total costs at 30 & 90 days (30D & 90D). Standardized costs were obtained from the Mayo Clinic Cost Data Warehouse and Medicare reimbursements were assigned to all services with cost to charge adjustments and 2017 GDP Implicit Price Deflator for inflation. Cost means were compared via the Kruskal-Wallis test. Results: 538 pts were treated with pRT, 124 receiving 8Gy x1, 204 receiving 4Gy x5, and 210 receiving 3Gy x10. Pts with breast and prostate cancer were most likely to be treated with 3Gy x10 and pts with GI and lung cancer were most likely to be treated with 8Gy x1. RT costs at 30D were $1,497, $1,891, and $1,982 (p=0.03) and RT costs at 90D were $2,602, $2,753, and $3,032 (p=0.08) for initial RT regimens of 8Gy x1, 4Gy x5, and 3Gy x10. Total costs of care at 30D were similar from $15,969 - 17,687 (p=0.6) and total costs at 90D were similar from $22,361 - 23,219 (p=0.7) between arms. A total of 23%, 28%, and 39% of pts were alive 2 years following pRT from each arm (p=0.07). Conclusions: This is the first study of its kind to analyze actual treatment costs for the three most common pRT regimens in bone mets. Single fraction RT was most used for pts with poor prognoses and was associated with lower RT costs at 30D, but similar RT costs at 90D, possibly due to retreatment. RT choice had no impact on overall costs of care at 30D or 90D. pRT remains of high value, representing only 11-13% of total costs.[Table: see text]