Gerber, Yariv

Background— Mortality in patients with heart failure (HF) remains high, but causes of death are incompletely defined. As HF is a heterogeneous syndrome categorized according to the ejection fraction (EF), the association between EF and causes of death is important, yet elusive. Methods and Results— Community subjects with HF were classified according to the preserved (≥50%) and the reduced EF (<50%). Deaths were classified as due to coronary heart disease and other cardiovascular and noncardiovascular diseases. Among 1063 persons with HF, 45% had preserved EF with fewer cardiovascular risk factors and less coronary disease than those with reduced EF. At 5 years, survival was 45% (95% CI, 43% to 49%), and 43% of the deaths were noncardiovascular. The leading cause of death in subjects with preserved EF was noncardiovascular disease (49%) versus coronary heart disease (43%) for subjects with reduced EF. The proportion of cardiovascular deaths decreased from 69% in 1979–1984 to 40% in 1997–2002 ( P =0.007) among subjects with preserved EF, which is in contrast to a modest change among those with reduced EF (77% to 64%, P =0.08). Advanced age, male sex, diabetes, smoking, and kidney disease were associated with an increased risk of all-cause and cardiovascular deaths. After adjustment, preserved EF was associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular death but not all-cause death. Conclusions— Community subjects with HF experience a persistently high mortality, and a large proportion of deaths is noncardiovascular. Cardiovascular disease before death is less in subjects with preserved EF, and they are less likely to experience cardiovascular deaths compared with those with reduced EF. In those with preserved EF, the proportion of cardiovascular deaths declined over time.

Objective— We evaluated the role of lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A 2 (Lp-PLA 2 ), an inflammatory biomarker, in defining risk after myocardial infarction (MI). Methods and Results— Olmsted County, Minn, residents who experienced an MI meeting standardized criteria between 2003 and 2005 (n=271) were prospectively identified and followed. Lp-PLA 2 levels were measured at baseline and evaluated along with traditional risk indicators. Lp-PLA 2 was modestly associated with total and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, smoking, and age (inversely) but not with MI characteristics or severity, comorbidities, C-reactive protein, or the time from symptom onset to blood sampling. During the first year of follow-up, 42 deaths occurred. The survival estimates (95% confidence intervals [CI]) at 1 year were 92% (86% to 98%), 85% (78% to 93%), and 74% (65% to 84%) in the lowest, middle, and upper Lp-PLA 2 tertiles, respectively ( P =0.007). After adjustment for age and sex, the hazard ratios for death in the middle and upper Lp-PLA 2 tertiles were 2.20 (95% CI: 0.88 to 5.54) and 4.93 (95% CI: 2.10 to 11.60), compared with the lowest tertile, respectively ( P trend <0.001). Further adjustment for other risk indicators resulted in even stronger associations. Lp-PLA 2 also contributed to risk discrimination as indicated by the increases in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves obtained in each of the models examined (all P ≤0.05). Conclusions— Among community subjects presenting with MI, increased Lp-PLA 2 levels measured early after MI are strongly and independently associated with mortality and provide incremental value in risk discrimination over traditional predictors.

Background— Although age-adjusted cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality has declined over the past decades, controversies remain about whether this trend was similar across locations of death and disease categories and about the existence of age and sex disparities. Methods and Results— We examined CVD mortality trends in Olmsted County, Minnesota, between 1979 and 2003 using the categories defined by the American Heart Association, including coronary heart disease (CHD), non-CHD diseases of the heart, and noncardiac circulatory diseases. Data on demographics, cause, and location of death of all 6378 residents who died of CVD were analyzed. Although decreases in the age-adjusted rates occurred in all groups, the magnitude of the decline varied widely. Lesser annual declines were noted in out-of-hospital than in-hospital deaths (1.8% versus 4.8%; P <0.001), in older than in younger persons (1.5% at age ≥85 years versus 3.9% for those ≤74 years of age; P <0.001), and in women relative to men (2.5% versus 3.3%; P =0.007). Furthermore, although CHD showed a marked annual decrease (3.3%), more modest decrements were found for non-CHD diseases of the heart (2.1%) and noncardiac circulatory diseases (2.4%) ( P =0.02 and P =0.04 for the comparison with CHD decline, respectively). Conclusions— Over the past 25 years, CVD mortality declined markedly in the community, but there were large disparities in the magnitude of the decline, resulting in a shift in the distribution toward out-of-hospital and non-CHD deaths. Further reduction in CVD mortality will require strategies directed at elderly persons and women, in whom out-of-hospital rates have improved only minimally.