Melton, L. Joseph

Abstract Appendicular bone mass is inversely related to the risk of hip fracture in short-term prospective studies, but hip fractures typically occur about 30 years after menopause. We developed a model that estimates a woman's lifetime risk of hip fracture based on measurement of radial bone mass at age 50 using short-term prospective data relating bone mass to hip fracture, the correlation between bone mass at age 50 and later years, the age-specific incidence of hip fracture and mortality, and prospective data about bone mass and mortality. We estimate that a 50-year-old white woman has a 19% lifetime risk of hip fracture if her radial bone mass is at the 10th percentile for her age and an 11% lifetime risk if her bone mass is at the 90th percentile. Improved measurement techniques that have a higher predictive value for hip fracture in short-term studies could substantially increase this gradient of lifetime risk and therefore be more clinically useful.

Abstract Increasing body weight is associated both with higher bone mass and with lower rates of bone loss. Whether the effects of body weight are mediated by lean body mass (LBM) or fat body mass (FBM) is, however, uncertain because different studies have used different measures of bone mass and arrived at contradictory conclusions. The parameter actually measured is bone mineral content (BMC). Bone mineral density (BMD), bone mineral apparent density (BMAD), and the BMD/height attempt to “correct” BMC for differences in bone or body size, but these corrections may bias the analysis of the effects of body composition on the skeleton. To resolve this issue, we measured BMC at the total body, lumbar spine, proximal femur, and forearm using dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) in a population-based sample including 138 premenopausal women (age range 21–54 years, mean 35 years) and 213 postmenopausal women (age range 34–94 years, mean 68 years). BMD, BMAD, and BMD/ height were also calculated for each site. LBM and FBM were determined from the DXA whole body scan. In a multivariate analysis that included age and height, both LBM and FBM predicted total body BMC in pre- and postmenopausal women (p < 0.002 for LBM and FBM in both groups). LBM had a dominant effect on spine and forearm BMC in both groups (p < 0.004) and hip BMC in premenopausal women (p < 0.001), whereas both LBM and FBM predicted hip BMC in postmenopausal women (p < 0.001). However, as BMC was adjusted for bone or body size using BMD, BMAD, or BMD/height, FBM tended to become more important than LBM in the analysis. This was, in part, due to the fact that each of the correction factors in the BMD and BMAD calculations, as well as height, were highly correlated with LBM (r = 0.57 and 0.52 for height versus LBM in pre- and postmenopausal women, respectively [p < 0.001]), and weakly or not at all with FBM (r = 0.08 and 0.11, respectively). Therefore, dividing BMC by these correction factors tended to bias the analysis against potential effects of LBM on bone mass. Thus, the relationship between body composition and bone mass is critically dependent on which bone mass parameter is used in the analysis. Both LBM and FBM have important effects on bone mass, depending on the bone mass parameter used, the skeletal site measured, and menopausal status.

Abstract Recent studies have demonstrated an important role for circulating serotonin in regulating bone mass in rodents. In addition, patients treated with selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) have reduced areal bone mineral density (aBMD). However, the potential physiologic role of serotonin in regulating bone mass in humans remains unclear. Thus we measured serum serotonin levels in a population-based sample of 275 women and related these to total-body and spine aBMD assessed by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, femur neck total and trabecular volumetric BMD (vBMD) and vertebral trabecular vBMD assessed by quantitative computed tomography (QCT), and bone microstructural parameters at the distal radius assessed by high-resolution peripheral QCT (HRpQCT). Serotonin levels were inversely associated with body and spine aBMD (age-adjusted R = −0.17 and −0.16, P < .01, respectively) and with femur neck total and trabecular vBMD (age-adjusted R = −0.17 and −0.25, P < .01 and < .001, respectively) but not lumbar spine vBMD. Bone volume/tissue volume, trabecular number, and trabecular thickness at the radius were inversely associated with serotonin levels (age-adjusted R = −0.16, −0.16, and −0.14, P < .05, respectively). Serotonin levels also were inversely associated with body mass index (BMI; age-adjusted R = −0.23, P < .001). Multivariable models showed that serotonin levels remained significant negative predictors of femur neck total and trabecular vBMD, as well as trabecular thickness at the radius, after adjusting for age and BMI. Collectively, our data provide support for a physiologic role for circulating serotonin in regulating bone mass in humans. © 2010 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research

In the Mayo Clinic Cohort Study of Oophorectomy and Aging, women who had both ovaries removed before reaching natural menopause experienced a long-term increased risk of parkinsonism, cognitive impairment or dementia, and depressive and anxiety symptoms. Here, we discuss five possible mechanistic interpretations of the observed associations; first, the associations may be non-causal because they result from the confounding effect of genetic variants or of other risk factors; second, the associations may be mediated by an abrupt reduction in levels of circulating estrogen; third, the associations may be mediated by an abrupt reduction in levels of circulating progesterone or testosterone; fourth, the associations may be mediated by an increased release of gonadotropins by the pituitary gland; and fifth, genetic variants may modify the hormonal effects of bilateral oophorectomy through simple or more complex interactions. Results from other studies are cited as evidence for or against each possible mechanism. These putative causal mechanisms are probably intertwined, and their clarification is a research priority.

Abstract Introduction: Limited information is available about the clinical features of Paget's disease of bone among unselected patients in the community. We examined morbidity and mortality associated with this condition in a large inception cohort of Olmsted County, MN, residents with a new diagnosis of Paget's disease from 1950 through 1994. Materials and Methods: Survival was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the impact of various covariates on death. Results: Paget's disease of bone was diagnosed in 236 Olmsted County residents (mean age at diagnosis, 69.6 yr; 55% men). The majority were symptomatic at diagnosis (58%), and the proportion with symptoms did not change from the prescreening era (1950 to June 1974) to the postscreening era (July 1974–1994). Most patients had polyostotic disease (72%), and the pelvis (67%), vertebra (41%), and femur (31%) were the most common sites of involvement. Skeletal complications attributable to Paget's disease included bowing deformities (7.6%), fracture of pagetic bone (9.7%), and osteosarcoma (0.4%). Osteoarthritis was observed in 73% of patients, and 11% had a hip or knee replacement. Nonskeletal complications related to Paget's disease included cranial nerve (0.4%), peripheral nerve (1.7%), and nerve root (3.8%) compression, basilar invagination (2.1%), hypercalcemia (5.2%), and congestive heart failure (3.0%). Hearing loss, noted in 61%, was significantly higher than previously reported. Conclusions: Compared with white Minnesota residents, overall survival was slightly better than expected (p = 0.010). No clinical risk factors were identified that were associated with an increased risk of death.

Abstract Vertebral fractures are more strongly associated with specific bone density, structure, and strength parameters than with areal BMD, but all of these variables are correlated. Introduction: It is unclear whether the association of areal BMD (aBMD) with vertebral fracture risk depends on bone density per se, bone macro- or microstructure, overall bone strength, or spine load/bone strength ratios. Materials and Methods: From an age-stratified sample of Rochester, MN, women, we identified 40 with a clinically diagnosed vertebral fracture (confirmed semiquantitatively) caused by moderate trauma (cases; mean age, 78.6 ± 9.0 yr) and compared them with 40 controls with no osteoporotic fracture (mean age, 70.9 ± 6.8 yr). Lumbar spine volumetric BMD (vBMD) and geometry were assessed by central QCT, whereas microstructure was evaluated by high-resolution pQCT at the ultradistal radius. Vertebral failure load (∼strength) was estimated from voxel-based finite element models, and the factor-of-risk (ϕ) was determined as the ratio of applied spine loads to failure load. Results: Spine loading (axial compressive force on L3) was similar in vertebral fracture cases and controls (e.g., for 90° forward flexion, 2639 versus 2706 N; age-adjusted p = 0.173). However, fracture cases had inferior values for most bone density and structure variables. Bone strength measures were also reduced, and the factor-of-risk was 35–37% greater (worse) among women with a vertebral fracture. By age-adjusted logistic regression, relative risks for the strongest fracture predictor in each of the five main variable categories were bone density (total lumbar spine vBMD: OR per SD change, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.1–4.3), bone geometry (vertebral apparent cortical thickness: OR, 2.1; 95% CI, 1.1–4.1), bone microstructure (none significant); bone strength (“cortical” [outer 2 mm] compressive strength: OR, 2.5; 95% CI, 1.3–4.8), and factor-of-risk (ϕ for 90° forward flexion/overall vertebral compressive strength: OR, 3.2; 95% CI, 1.4–7.5). These variables were correlated with spine aBMD (partial r, −0.32 to 0.75), but each was a stronger predictor of fracture in the logistic regression analyses. Conclusions: The association of aBMD with vertebral fracture risk is explained by its correlation with more specific bone density, structure, and strength parameters. These may allow deeper insights into fracture pathogenesis.

We reviewed the records of pregnant diabetic women attended at Mayo Clinic during the years 1950–79 and matched each nonaborted diabetic pregnancy with two control pregnancies. Abortions occurred in 49 of 277 diabetic pregnancies (17.7%). The relative risk of other adverse outcomes of pregnancy (± 95% confidence interval) in comparison with controls was as follows: perinatal mortality, 7.0 (3.6–13.8); major congenital birth defects, 6.3 (2.8–14.2); and respiratory distress, 9.0 (4.5–17.9). Diabetic ketoacidosis resulted in fetal death in 5 of 18 cases. Patients with mean fasting blood glucose levels of ≤ 140 mg/dl had a perinatal mortality of 81 per 1000 births and an incidence of respiratory distress and congenital birth defects of 18.9% and 9.9%, respectively. Patients with mean blood glucose levels > 140 mg/dl had corresponding rates of 306 per 1000, 20.4%, and 11.2%, respectively. Hydramnios occurred almost exclusively in diabetic women, and its presence was associated with a twofold increase in the frequency of perinatal death. Analysis of diabetic pregnancy outcome by decade showed no appreciable decrease in the occurrence of perinatal mortality, congenital birth defects, or respiratory distress over the 30-yr period.