Vermeer, Alexa M.C.

Background Mutations in genes encoding ion channels or sarcomeric proteins are an important cause of hereditary cardiac disease. However, the severity of the resultant disease varies considerably even among those with an identical mutation. Such clinical variation is often thought to be explained largely by differences in genetic background or ‘modifier genes’. We aimed to test the prediction that identical genetic backgrounds result in largely similar clinical expression of a cardiac disease causing mutation, by studying the clinical expression of mutations causing cardiac disease in monozygotic twins. Methods We compared first available clinical information on 46 monozygotic twin pairs and 59 control pairs that had either a hereditary cardiomyopathy or channelopathy. Results Despite limited power of this study, we found significant heritability for corrected QT interval (QTc) in long QT syndrome (LQTS). We could not detect significant heritability for structural traits, but found a significant environmental effect on thickness of the interventricular septum in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. Conclusions Our study confirms previously found robust heritability for electrical traits like QTc in LQTS, and adds information on low or lacking heritability for structural traits in heritable cardiomyopathies. This may steer the search for genetic modifiers in heritable cardiac disease.

Background: Identification of people with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) who are at risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD) and require a prophylactic implantable cardioverter defibrillator is challenging. In 2014, the European Society of Cardiology proposed a new risk stratification method based on a risk prediction model (HCM Risk-SCD) that estimates the 5-year risk of SCD. The aim was to externally validate the 2014 European Society of Cardiology recommendations in a geographically diverse cohort of patients recruited from the United States, Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. Methods: This was an observational, retrospective, longitudinal cohort study. Results: The cohort consisted of 3703 patients. Seventy three (2%) patients reached the SCD end point within 5 years of follow-up (5-year incidence, 2.4% [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.9–3.0]). The validation study revealed a calibration slope of 1.02 (95% CI, 0.93–1.12), C-index of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.68–0.72), and D-statistic of 1.17 (95% CI, 1.05–1.29). In a complete case analysis (n= 2147; 44 SCD end points at 5 years), patients with a predicted 5-year risk of <4% (n=1524; 71%) had an observed 5-year SCD incidence of 1.4% (95% CI, 0.8–2.2); patients with a predicted risk of ≥6% (n=297; 14%) had an observed SCD incidence of 8.9% (95% CI, 5.96–13.1) at 5 years. For every 13 (297/23) implantable cardioverter defibrillator implantations in patients with an estimated 5-year SCD risk ≥6%, 1 patient can potentially be saved from SCD. Conclusions: This study confirms that the HCM Risk-SCD model provides accurate prognostic information that can be used to target implantable cardioverter defibrillator therapy in patients at the highest risk of SCD.