Malu, Abraham O.

Abstract Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a disease of global public health significance with mortality on the rise, despite the preventable nature of its risk factors especially in Africa. It is now the sixth most common cancer worldwide, fifth in males, and ninth in females. HCC incidence and mortality are predicted to increase in African countries constrained by limited resources to combat endemic levels of viral infection and synergistic environmental risk factors. The changing nature of HCC etiology is particularly illustrated here with the traditional risk factors like viral hepatitis coexisting alongside high human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence and rapidly increasing urbanization that have promoted a sharp increase in additional risk factors like coinfection, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and obesity. Although there are some differences in etiology between North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa, risk factors like chronic viral hepatitis B and C, aflatoxin exposure, and iron overload predominate. Aggressive hepatitis B genotypes, combined with hepatitis B virus/hepatitis C virus/HIV coinfections and aflatoxin exposure, promote a more aggressive molecular phenotype. In parallel to a better understanding of the molecular etiology of HCC, policy and planning initiatives to address the burden of HCC must be anchored within the reality of the limited resources available. Establishment and coordination of cancer registries across Africa is needed to improve the quality of data necessary to galvanize action. Preventive measures including hepatitis B vaccination programs, measures to prevent maternal-to-child and child-to-child transmission, delivery of universally accessible antiretroviral and antiviral treatments, and reduction of dietary aflatoxin exposure can contribute markedly to reduce HCC incidence. Finally, the development of biomarkers and new therapeutic interventions will need a better understanding of the unique genetic and epigenetic characteristics of HCC on the continent. We present a narrative review of HCC in Africa, discussing present and future trends.

SummaryDue to the introduction of newer, more efficacious treatment options, there is a pressing need for policy makers and public health officials to develop or adapt national hepatitis C virus (HCV) control strategies to the changing epidemiological landscape. To do so, detailed, country‐specific data are needed to characterize the burden of chronic HCV infection. In this study of 17 countries, a literature review of published and unpublished data on HCV prevalence, viraemia, genotype, age and gender distribution, liver transplants and diagnosis and treatment rates was conducted, and inputs were validated by expert consensus in each country. Viraemic prevalence in this study ranged from 0.2% in Hong Kong to 2.4% in Taiwan, while the largest viraemic populations were in Nigeria (2 597 000 cases) and Taiwan (569 000 cases). Diagnosis, treatment and liver transplant rates varied widely across the countries included in this analysis, as did the availability of reliable data. Addressing data gaps will be critical for the development of future strategies to manage and minimize the disease burden of hepatitis C.

SummaryFactors influencing the morbidity and mortality associated with viremic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection change over time and place, making it difficult to compare reported estimates. Models were developed for 17 countries (Bahrain, Bulgaria, Cameroon, Colombia, Croatia, Dominican Republic, Ethiopia, Ghana, Hong Kong, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Morocco, Nigeria, Qatar and Taiwan) to quantify and characterize the viremic population as well as forecast the changes in the infected population and the corresponding disease burden from 2015 to 2030. Model inputs were agreed upon through expert consensus, and a standardized methodology was followed to allow for comparison across countries. The viremic prevalence is expected to remain constant or decline in all but four countries (Ethiopia, Ghana, Jordan and Oman); however, HCV‐related morbidity and mortality will increase in all countries except Qatar and Taiwan. In Qatar, the high‐treatment rate will contribute to a reduction in total cases and HCV‐related morbidity by 2030. In the remaining countries, however, the current treatment paradigm will be insufficient to achieve large reductions in HCV‐related morbidity and mortality.

SummaryThe hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemic was forecasted through 2030 for 17 countries in Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America and the Middle East, and interventions for achieving the Global Health Sector Strategy on viral hepatitis targets—“WHO Targets” (65% reduction in HCV‐related deaths, 90% reduction in new infections and 90% of infections diagnosed by 2030) were considered. Scaling up treatment and diagnosis rates over time would be required to achieve these targets in all but one country, even with the introduction of high SVR therapies. The scenarios developed to achieve the WHO Targets in all countries studied assumed the implementation of national policies to prevent new infections and to diagnose current infections through screening.