El‐Matary, Wael

Background and Aims Many children with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) receive oral vancomycin therapy (OVT) or ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA). There is a paucity of data on whether these medications improve outcomes. Approach and Results We analyzed retrospective data from the Pediatric PSC Consortium. Children treated with OVT were matched 1:1:1 to those treated with UDCA or managed with observation (no treatment) based on the closest propensity score, ensuring similar baseline characteristics. Two hundred sixty‐four patients (88 each with OVT, UDCA, or observation) had matching propensity scores and were similar in demographics, phenotype, immunosuppression, baseline biochemistry, and hepatic fibrosis. After 1 year in an intention‐to‐treat analysis, all outcome metrics were similar regardless of treatment group. In OVT, UDCA, and untreated groups, respectively: Gamma‐glutamyltransferase normalized in 53%, 49%, and 52% (P = not significant [NS]), liver fibrosis stage was improved in 20%, 13%, and 18% and worsened in 11%, 29%, and 18% (P = NS), and the 5‐year probability of liver transplant listing was 21%, 10%, and 12% (P = NS). Favorable outcome was associated with having a mild phenotype of PSC and minimal hepatic fibrosis. Conclusions We presented the largest‐ever description of outcomes on OVT in PSC and compared them to carefully matched patients on UDCA or no therapy. Neither OVT nor UDCA showed improvement in outcomes compared to a strategy of observation. Patients progressed to end‐stage liver disease at similar rates. Spontaneous normalization of biochemistry is common in children receiving no therapy, particularly in the majority of children with a mild phenotype and an early stage of disease. Placebo‐controlled treatment trials are needed to identify effective treatments for pediatric PSC.

ABSTRACTBackground:Natural history models for primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) are derived from adult patient data, but have never been validated in children. It is unclear how accurate such models are for children with PSC.Methods:We utilized the pediatric PSC consortium database to assess the Revised Mayo Clinic, Amsterdam‐Oxford, and Boberg models. We calculated the risk stratum and predicted survival for each patient within each model using patient data at PSC diagnosis, and compared it with observed survival. We evaluated model fit using the c‐statistic.Results:Model fit was good at 1 year (c‐statistics 0.93, 0.87, 0.82) and fair at 10 years (0.78, 0.75, 0.69) in the Mayo, Boberg, and Amsterdam‐Oxford models, respectively. The Mayo model correctly classified most children as low risk, whereas the Amsterdam‐Oxford model incorrectly classified most as high risk. All of the models underestimated survival of patients classified as high risk. Albumin, bilirubin, AST, and platelets were most associated with outcomes. Autoimmune hepatitis was more prevalent in higher risk groups, and over‐weighting of AST in these patients accounted for the observed versus predicted survival discrepancy.Conclusions:All 3 models offered good short‐term discrimination of outcomes but only fair long‐term discrimination. None of the models account for the high prevalence of features of autoimmune hepatitis overlap in children and the associated elevated aminotransferases. A pediatric‐specific model is needed. AST, bilirubin, albumin, and platelets will be important predictors, but must be weighted to account for the unique features of PSC in children.

Adverse clinical events in primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) happen too slowly to capture during clinical trials. Surrogate endpoints are needed, but no such validated endpoints exist for children with PSC. We evaluated the association between gamma glutamyltransferase (GGT) reduction and long‐term outcomes in pediatric PSC patients. We evaluated GGT normalization (< 50 IU/L) at 1 year among a multicenter cohort of children with PSC who did or did not receive treatment with ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA). We compared rates of event‐free survival (no portal hypertensive or biliary complications, cholangiocarcinoma, liver transplantation, or liver‐related death) at 5 years. Of the 287 children, mean age of 11.4 years old, UDCA was used in 81% at a mean dose of 17 mg/kg/day. Treated and untreated groups had similar GGT at diagnosis (314 versus 300, P= not significant [NS]). The mean GGT was reduced at 1 year in both groups, with lower values seen in treated (versus untreated) patients (99 versus 175, P= 0.002), but 5‐year event‐free survival was similar (74% versus 77%, P= NS). In patients with GGT normalization (versus no normalization) by 1 year, regardless of UDCA treatment status, 5‐year event‐free survival was better (91% versus 67%, P< 0.001). Similarly, larger reduction in GGT over 1 year (> 75% versus < 25% reduction) was also associated with improved outcome (5‐year event‐free survival 88% versus 61%, P= 0.005). Conclusion:A GGT < 50 and/or GGT reduction of > 75% by 1 year after PSC diagnosis predicts favorable 5‐year outcomes in children. GGT has promise as a potential surrogate endpoint in future clinical trials for pediatric PSC.

There are limited data on the natural history of primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) in children. We aimed to describe the disease characteristics and long‐term outcomes of pediatric PSC. We retrospectively collected all pediatric PSC cases from 36 participating institutions and conducted a survival analysis from the date of PSC diagnosis to dates of diagnosis of portal hypertensive or biliary complications, cholangiocarcinoma, liver transplantation, or death. We analyzed patients grouped by disease phenotype and laboratory studies at diagnosis to identify objective predictors of long‐term outcome. We identified 781 patients, median age 12 years, with 4,277 person‐years of follow‐up; 33% with autoimmune hepatitis, 76% with inflammatory bowel disease, and 13% with small duct PSC. Portal hypertensive and biliary complications developed in 38% and 25%, respectively, after 10 years of disease. Once these complications developed, median survival with native liver was 2.8 and 3.5 years, respectively. Cholangiocarcinoma occurred in 1%. Overall event‐free survival was 70% at 5 years and 53% at 10 years. Patient groups with the most elevated total bilirubin, gamma‐glutamyltransferase, and aspartate aminotransferase‐to‐platelet ratio index at diagnosis had the worst outcomes. In multivariate analysis PSC–inflammatory bowel disease and small duct phenotypes were associated with favorable prognosis (hazard ratios 0.6, 95% confidence interval 0.5‐0.9, and 0.7, 95% confidence interval 0.5‐0.96, respectively). Age, gender, and autoimmune hepatitis overlap did not impact long‐term outcome. Conclusion: PSC has a chronic, progressive course in children, and nearly half of patients develop an adverse liver outcome after 10 years of disease; elevations in bilirubin, gamma‐glutamyltransferase, and aspartate aminotransferase‐to‐platelet ratio index at diagnosis can identify patients at highest risk; small duct PSC and PSC–inflammatory bowel disease are more favorable disease phenotypes. (Hepatology 2017;66:518–527).