Guthery, Stephen L.

Background and Aims Many children with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) receive oral vancomycin therapy (OVT) or ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA). There is a paucity of data on whether these medications improve outcomes. Approach and Results We analyzed retrospective data from the Pediatric PSC Consortium. Children treated with OVT were matched 1:1:1 to those treated with UDCA or managed with observation (no treatment) based on the closest propensity score, ensuring similar baseline characteristics. Two hundred sixty‐four patients (88 each with OVT, UDCA, or observation) had matching propensity scores and were similar in demographics, phenotype, immunosuppression, baseline biochemistry, and hepatic fibrosis. After 1 year in an intention‐to‐treat analysis, all outcome metrics were similar regardless of treatment group. In OVT, UDCA, and untreated groups, respectively: Gamma‐glutamyltransferase normalized in 53%, 49%, and 52% (P = not significant [NS]), liver fibrosis stage was improved in 20%, 13%, and 18% and worsened in 11%, 29%, and 18% (P = NS), and the 5‐year probability of liver transplant listing was 21%, 10%, and 12% (P = NS). Favorable outcome was associated with having a mild phenotype of PSC and minimal hepatic fibrosis. Conclusions We presented the largest‐ever description of outcomes on OVT in PSC and compared them to carefully matched patients on UDCA or no therapy. Neither OVT nor UDCA showed improvement in outcomes compared to a strategy of observation. Patients progressed to end‐stage liver disease at similar rates. Spontaneous normalization of biochemistry is common in children receiving no therapy, particularly in the majority of children with a mild phenotype and an early stage of disease. Placebo‐controlled treatment trials are needed to identify effective treatments for pediatric PSC.

ABSTRACTBackground:Natural history models for primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) are derived from adult patient data, but have never been validated in children. It is unclear how accurate such models are for children with PSC.Methods:We utilized the pediatric PSC consortium database to assess the Revised Mayo Clinic, Amsterdam‐Oxford, and Boberg models. We calculated the risk stratum and predicted survival for each patient within each model using patient data at PSC diagnosis, and compared it with observed survival. We evaluated model fit using the c‐statistic.Results:Model fit was good at 1 year (c‐statistics 0.93, 0.87, 0.82) and fair at 10 years (0.78, 0.75, 0.69) in the Mayo, Boberg, and Amsterdam‐Oxford models, respectively. The Mayo model correctly classified most children as low risk, whereas the Amsterdam‐Oxford model incorrectly classified most as high risk. All of the models underestimated survival of patients classified as high risk. Albumin, bilirubin, AST, and platelets were most associated with outcomes. Autoimmune hepatitis was more prevalent in higher risk groups, and over‐weighting of AST in these patients accounted for the observed versus predicted survival discrepancy.Conclusions:All 3 models offered good short‐term discrimination of outcomes but only fair long‐term discrimination. None of the models account for the high prevalence of features of autoimmune hepatitis overlap in children and the associated elevated aminotransferases. A pediatric‐specific model is needed. AST, bilirubin, albumin, and platelets will be important predictors, but must be weighted to account for the unique features of PSC in children.