Visscher, Daniel W.

Background More than 1.5 million women per year have a benign breast biopsy resulting in concern about their future breast cancer (BC) risk. This study examined the performance of 2 BC risk models that integrate clinical and histologic findings in this population. Methods The BC risk at 5 and 10 years was estimated with the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) and Benign Breast Disease to Breast Cancer (BBD‐BC) models for women diagnosed with benign breast disease (BBD) at the Mayo Clinic from 1997 to 2001. Women with BBD were eligible for the BBD‐BC model, but the BCSC model also required a screening mammogram. Calibration and discrimination were assessed. Results Fifty‐six cases of BC were diagnosed among the 2142 women with BBD (median age, 50 years) within 5 years (118 were diagnosed within 10 years). The BBD‐BC model had slightly better calibration at 5 years (0.89; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.71‐1.21) versus 10 years (0.81; 95% CI, 0.70‐1.00) but similar discrimination in the 2 time periods: 0.68 (95% CI, 0.60‐0.75) and 0.66 (95% CI, 0.60‐0.71), respectively. In contrast, among the 1089 women with screening mammograms (98 cases of BC within 10 years), the BCSC model had better calibration (0.94; 95% CI, 0.85‐1.43) and discrimination (0.63; 95% CI, 0.56‐0.71) at 10 years versus 5 years (calibration, 1.31; 95% CI, 0.94‐2.25; discrimination, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.46‐0.71) where discrimination was not different from chance. Conclusions The BCSC and BBD‐BC models were validated in the Mayo BBD cohort, although their performance differed by 5‐year risk versus 10‐year risk. Further enhancement of these models is needed to provide accurate BC risk estimates for women with BBD.

Purpose Women with atypical hyperplasia (AH) on breast biopsy have an aggregate increased risk of breast cancer (BC), but existing risk prediction models do not provide accurate individualized estimates of risk in this subset of high-risk women. Here, we used the Mayo benign breast disease cohort to develop and validate a model of BC risk prediction that is specifically for women with AH, which we have designated as AH-BC. Patients and Methods Retrospective cohorts of women age 18 to 85 years with pathologically confirmed benign AH from Rochester, MN, and Nashville, TN, were used for model development and external validation, respectively. Clinical risk factors and histologic features of the tissue biopsy were selected using L1-penalized Cox proportional hazards regression. Identified features were included in a Fine and Gray regression model to estimate BC risk, with death as a competing risk. Model discrimination and calibration were assessed in the model-building set and an external validation set. Results The model-building set consisted of 699 women with AH, 142 of whom developed BC (median follow-up, 8.1 years), and the external validation set consisted of 461 women with 114 later BC events (median follow-up, 11.4 years). The final AH-BC model included three covariates: age at biopsy, age at biopsy squared, and number of foci of AH. At 10 years, the AH-BC model demonstrated good discrimination (0.63 [95% CI, 0.57 to 0.70]) and calibration (0.87 [95% CI, 0.66 to 1.24]). In the external validation set, the model showed acceptable discrimination (0.59 [95% CI, 0.51 to 0.67]) and calibration (0.91 [95% CI, 0.65 to 1.42]). Conclusion We have created a new model with which to refine BC risk prediction for women with AH. The AH-BC model demonstrates good discrimination and calibration, and it validates in an external data set.

5 Background: Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) is an immunogenic breast cancer subtype, with a greater percentage of tumors containing tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) compared to non-TNBC. TILs are prognostic for recurrence and predictive for chemotherapy benefit in TNBC, but not in estrogen receptor (ER)-positive tumors. A subset of TNBC expresses the androgen receptor (AR), and resembles ER-positive breast cancer in terms of demographics (older age) and clinical course (later recurrences that tend to involve bone). However, little is known regarding the association between TILs and AR expression in TNBC. Methods: From a cohort of 9982 women with surgically-treated non-metastatic breast cancer, patients who met criteria for TNBC (ER/PR < 1% and HER2-negative) by centralized-pathology review were included as previously published [Leon-Ferre et al, Breast Cancer Res Treat 2017]. Stromal TILs in these tumors were quantified on full-face hematoxylin and eosin sections from the surgical specimen, following the 2014 TIL Working Group recommendations [Salgado et al, Ann Oncol 2014]. The expression of AR [EPR1535(2), Abcam] was scored as a continuous variable (1% increments), and categorized as absent (0%), low (1-25% ), low-moderate (26-50%) moderate (51-75%) and high (> 75%) and correlated with TIL density. Results: 605 patients met criteria for TNBC. The median age was 56 years. Most tumors were T1-2 (95%), N0-1 (86%), and high grade (88%). The median stromal TIL content was 20% (0-90%). Tumor tissue was available for AR staining in 509/605 patients. 165 (32%) tumors expressed AR as follows: low: 12%, low-moderate: 7%, moderate: 5%, and high: 8%. Apocrine tumors (n = 30) expressed AR most frequently (86%) and at higher levels (AR high: 50%). For all 509 tumors, the median stromal TIL content according to AR expression was AR absent: 20%, AR low: 20%, AR low-moderate: 15%, AR high: 10%. AR and stromal TILs (both as continuous variables) demonstrated a weak inverse correlation (correlation coefficient -0.1064, p = 0.017). Conclusions: AR expression in TNBC is associated with lower levels of stromal TILs. Additional data correlating the AR, stromal TILs and outcomes in this cohort will be presented at the meeting.

Abstract In breast adipose tissue, macrophages that encircle damaged adipocytes form “crown-like structures of breast” (CLS-B). Although CLS-B have been associated with breast cancer, their role in benign breast disease (BBD) and early carcinogenesis is not understood. We evaluated breast biopsies from three age-matched groups (n = 86 each, mean age 55 years), including normal tissue donors of the Susan G. Komen for the Cure Tissue Bank (KTB), and subjects in the Mayo Clinic Benign Breast Disease Cohort who developed cancer (BBD cases) or did not develop cancer (BBD controls, median follow-up 14 years). Biopsies were classified into histologic categories, and CD68-immunostained tissue sections were evaluated for the frequency and density of CLS-B. Our data demonstrate that CLS-B are associated with BBD: CLS-B–positive samples were significantly less frequent among KTB biopsies (3/86, 3.5%) than BBD controls (16/86 = 18.6%, P = 0.01) and BBD cases (21/86 = 24%, P = 0.002). CLS-B were strongly associated with body mass index (BMI); BMI &lt; 25: 7% CLS-B positive, BMI 25–29: 13%, and BMI ≥ 30: 29% (P = 0.0005). Among BBD biopsies, a high CLS-B count [&gt;5 CLS-B/sample: 10.5% (BBD cases) vs 4.7% (BBD controls), P = 0.007] conferred a breast cancer OR of 6.8 (95% CI, 1.4–32.4), P = 0.02, after adjusting for adipose tissue area (cm2), histologic impression, and BMI. As high CLS-B densities are independently associated with an increased breast cancer risk, they may be a promising histologic marker of breast cancer risk in BBD. Cancer Prev Res; 11(2); 113–9. ©2017 AACR.

Abstract Background: PARP inhibitors (PARPis) are active in cancers with homologous recombination (HR) defects. Preclinical studies have shown that secondary mutations or alterations in gene expression (e.g., downregulation of 53BP1, Ku70, Ku80 or DNA-PKcs) restore HR and confer PARPi resistance. In addition, low PARP1 expression can diminish PARP trapping and cause PARPi resistance. ARIEL2 Part 1 is a phase 2 study of the PARPi rucaparib in platinum sensitive, relapsed high grade serous or endometrioid ovarian cancer (OC). Pretreatment OC biopsies were previously assayed for HR gene mutations and loss of heterozygosity (LOH), a genomic scar that reflects HR deficiency. Two tumor groups (BRCA wildtype [wt]/LOH high and BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutant) have objective response rates of 29.3% and 80%, respectively, as well as progression free survival (PFS) of 5.7 and 12.8 months, respectively, on rucaparib (E. Swisher et al., Lancet Oncol., in press). Common AEs included nausea (80%), asthenia/fatigue (78%), constipation (46%), and vomiting (44%). The present studies tested the hypotheses that i) lower PARP1 expression and/or ii) lower expression of NHEJ components 53BP1, DNA-PKcs, Ku80, Ku70, or LIG4, may correlate with diminished response rate as well as PFS in pts treated with rucaparib on ARIEL2. Methods: Immunohistochemical assays were developed for 53BP1, DNA-PKcs, Ku80, Ku70, LIG4, and PARP1 and validated in formalin fixed, paraffin embedded cell lines differing in analyte expression. Available pretreatment OC biopsies from ARIEL2 Part 1 were stained and scored for % of tumor nuclei that were negative (0), weak (1+), moderate (2+) or strong (3+). Modified H-scores were correlated with clinical characteristics and outcome measures. Results: Pretreatment biopsies from 62-68 pts were successfully stained for each repair protein. Across the samples, PARP1 H-scores varied from 0 to 300 (median 160). Focusing on the BRCA wt/LOH high group (n = 38), there was no significant difference in PFS of pts with low (&lt;100), intermediate (100-200) or high (&gt;200) PARP1 H-score (p = 0.57). Expression of DNA-PKcs, Ku70, Ku80, and LIG4 was generally lower (median H-scores 20-60) and did not individually correlate with response or PFS. In contrast, there was a trend toward improved PFS in BRCA wt/LOH high OC pts expressing intermediate or high 53BP1 (H-score ≥ 100, n = 10) compared to pts with low 53BP1 (H-score &lt;100, n = 25), with median PFS 20.7 vs. 5.5 months (p = 0.073), respectively. Staining of additional pretreatment biopsies is planned. Conclusions: In the BRCA wt/LOH high group, pretreatment PARP1 expression does not correlate with rucaparib response. In contrast, BRCA wt/LOH high OC pts with low 53BP1 have a trend toward shorter PFS with rucaparib, suggesting that 53BP1 downregulation might correlate with clinical PARPi resistance in BRCA wt/LOH high OC. Citation Format: Andrea E. Wahner Hendrickson, Kevin K. Lin, Daniel W. Visscher, Rachel M. Hurley, Mitch Raponi, Thomas C. Harding, Linda M. Murphy, Jill M. Wagner, Heidi Giordano, Iain McNeish, Elizabeth M. Swisher, Scott Kaufmann. DNA repair protein expression and response of homologous recombination deficient ovarian cancer to the poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase (PARP) inhibitor rucaparib in the ARIEL2 Part 1 study [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2017; 2017 Apr 1-5; Washington, DC. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2017;77(13 Suppl):Abstract nr 4676. doi:10.1158/1538-7445.AM2017-4676

Abstract Background: The Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) model predicts invasive breast cancer risk in women with Benign Breast Disease (BBD), and recently incorporated BBD histology into the model. The BCSC has been validated in the Mayo Mammography Health Study, but has yet to be examined in Mayo Clinic’s BBD cohort. The Benign Breast Disease to Breast Cancer (BBD-BC) model predicts risk of both invasive and in situ breast cancer. Here we compare the performance of the BCSC and BBD-BC in Mayo Clinic’s BBD cohort. Methods: Eligible women underwent a breast biopsy with benign findings at the Mayo Clinic between years 1997-2001 and had a 4-view screening mammogram within six months of biopsy. Clinical BI-RADS density assessments using the 4th edition American College of Radiology were available on all mammograms, and were coded as almost entirely fat, scattered fibroglandular densities, heterogeneously dense, and extremely dense. Risk at 5 and 10 years of invasive cancer only (BCSC model) or both invasive and in situ cancer (BBD-BC model) were estimated. In situ cancers were censored at time of diagnosis for both models. Concordance statistics, i.e. model discrimination (higher is better), for each model were calculated using a Cox proportional hazards model with predicted risk as the sole predictor, and were compared using permutation tests. The ratio of total predicted (sum of predicted risk) to observed number of invasive breast cancers was used to assess model calibration. Calibration was not formally compared across models due to differences in how DCIS was treated in the development of each (BCSC censored; BBD-BC event). Results: 999 women met inclusion criteria. BI-RADS density was categorized as fatty in 46 (4.6%), scattered densities in 372 (37.2%), heterogeneously dense in 423 (42.3%), and extremely dense in 158 (15.8%). 62 invasive cancers occurred over a median 13.3yrs of follow-up, with 16 (25.8%) and 48 (77.4%) of the cancers occurring with-in 5 and 10 years. The concordance of the BCSC at 5 years was 0.550 (95% CI 0.409—0.691), compared to 0.719 (95% CI 0.578—0.860) for the BBD-BC (p-value=0.005). At 10 years the BCSC concordance was not significantly different from the BBD-BC, at 0.624 (95% CI 0.542—0.706) and 0.662 (95% CI 0.580—0.744), respectively (p-value=0.306). The BCSC over predicted the number invasive cancers in the BBD cohort at 5 years (predicted-to-observed=1.54; 95% CI 1.01—2.70), but was well calibrated at 10 years (1.06; 95% CI 0.83, 1.47). Conclusions: The BCSC model performed reasonably well in the BBD Cohort 10 years post-biopsy, but overestimated risk at 5 years. Additional study is needed to improve models for prediction of breast cancer risk among women with BBD. Citation Format: Ryan D. Frank, Celine M. Vachon, Stacey J. Winham, Robert A. Vierkant, Marlene H. Frost, Derek C. Radisky, Daniel W. Visscher, Amy C. Degnim. Validation of the BCSC model within the Mayo Benign Breast Disease Cohort [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2017; 2017 Apr 1-5; Washington, DC. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2017;77(13 Suppl):Abstract nr 5299. doi:10.1158/1538-7445.AM2017-5299

3 Background: Atypical ductal hyperplasia (ADH) is a high-risk breast lesion usually diagnosed with core needle biopsy. Although upgraded to cancer at surgical excision in ~15 to 25% of cases, routine excision is questioned due to cost and overtreatment. We evaluated clinical, imaging, and histologic features associated with cancer upgrade and developed a multivariate model to predict risk of upgrade. Methods: With IRB approval a single institution retrospective review was performed of patients who underwent surgical excision of ADH diagnosed by core biopsy from 06/2005 to 06/2013. Review was performed of electronic records, breast imagin,g and biopsy slides. Multiple imputations were used for missing data. Association of cancer upgrade with various features was assessed with logistic regression. Results: 409 biopsies with ADH on core biopsy, with later surgical excision, were included. The overall upgrade rate was (16.1%, 95% CI:12.9-20.0%); 10 patients had invasive cancer at excision and 56 DCIS only. Features on core biopsy most strongly associated with upgrade were imaging estimated percent of lesion removed (upgrade 9% for 90% removed, 14% for 50 to 75%, and 27% for < 50% removed), individual cell necrosis (upgrade 34% with necrosis vs. 9.5% without), and # foci of ADH (22% for >1 focus vs 8% for 1 focus). A multivariate predictive model (see Table) showed an average C-statistic of 0.77. Women with no necrosis and either 1 focus with ≥ 50% removal or >1 focus with 90% removal (36% of the sample) have low risk of upgrade (5.0%, 95% CI:1.3-8.7%). Conclusions: ADH on core biopsy with low risk of upgrade to cancer is defined by percent of imaging lesion removed, # of foci of ADH, and lack of individual cell necrosis. If findings are validated, women whose biopsies meet low-risk criteria might be considered for chemoprevention and surveillance rather than surgical excision.[Table: see text]