Pederson, Holly J.

10505 Background: Polygenic risk scores (PRS) have been shown to substantially improve breast cancer (BC) risk prediction when incorporated into traditional risk assessment models. However, PRS developed primarily in women of European ancestry have shown poor performance when applied to non-European populations. We previously described development and validation of a multiple-ancestry PRS (MA-PRS) that is based on individual ancestral genetic composition. MA-PRS has been incorporated into the Tyrer-Cuzick model for use in clinical practice and has been shown to provide independent value to the model. Here, we describe performance of the MA-PRS in a large cohort of women from diverse ancestral backgrounds. Methods: The study cohort included 203,586 patients who were referred for hereditary cancer testing and negative for pathogenic variants in genes associated with BC. MA-PRS was calculated as previously described based on 149 SNPs (93 BC and 56 ancestry-informative). Association of MA-PRS with invasive BC status (affected vs unaffected) was analyzed using logistic regression adjusted for personal and family cancer history, age, and ancestry. Calibration was assessed by examining the MA-PRS distribution within unaffected patients, and through goodness-of-fit tests. All analyses were conducted within the full cohort and within ancestral subpopulations. Odds ratios (ORs) are reported per standard deviation. Results: One-fifth (43,782/203,586, 21.5%) of patients were diagnosed with invasive BC, and 60,657 (29.8%) of patients reported BC in a first degree relative. The MA-PRS distribution was centered around zero among unaffected patients overall and within each subpopulation. MA-PRS significantly improved BC risk prediction over clinical factors in the full cohort (OR = 1.43, 95% CI:1.41-1.44) and within each ancestral subpopulation (Table). The strongest associations were observed in Ashkenazi Jewish (OR = 1.56, 95% CI:1.39-1.76) and South Asian (OR = 1.49,95% CI: 1.23-1.81) populations. The top decile of the MA-PRS consistently identified patients with two-fold increased risk of developing BC. Goodness-of-fit tests showed that the MA-PRS was well calibrated and predicted BC risk accurately in the tails of the distribution for both European and non-European women. Conclusions: The breast cancer MA-PRS based on genetic ancestral composition is well-calibrated and strongly associated with BC in all tested ancestral populations. Incorporation of PRS adds independent information to risk models and supports equitable access to personalized BC risk management. [Table: see text]

Abstract Background: Personalized breast cancer (BC) risk assessment depends on known traditional risk factors, specific germline mutations, and genome-wide polygenic risk scores (PRS). PRS explains a substantial proportion of genetic BC susceptibility. Accuracy of BC risk prediction may be improved by combining a PRS with traditional risk factors. We recently developed and validated a 149-SNP PRS for women of diverse ancestries using ancestry-informative genetic markers and combined this with version 7 of the Tyrer-Cuzick (TC) model to generate a Combined Risk Score (CRS). Here, we describe a pre-specified prospective longitudinal clinical validation of CRS as a predictor of BC risk. Methods: Women in the U.S. who were referred for clinical genetic testing between January 2017 and February 2019 were matched to medical and hospital claims in an anonymized dataset. Women with a pathogenic mutation in a BC-related gene were excluded from analysis. Follow-up began 4 months after testing and extended to the earliest date of BC diagnosis, censoring at the time of BC preventive treatment, or November 1, 2019. Incident BC events were determined by an ICD10 code of C50.* and confirmed by relevant treatment codes. CRS calibration was evaluated by the ratio of observed (O) to expected (E) incident BCs for the full cohort, and for women split into event-based 5-year CRS risk deciles. Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate discriminatory accuracy in terms of hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) and p-values from likelihood ratio chi-squared statistics. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to examine risk for women split into high- or low-risk groups according to a 3% 5-year CRS risk threshold. Results: 130,058 women with 148,349 total patient years met study eligibility criteria and were matched to claims data. Over a median (range) follow-up of 12.1 (4.0-29.5) months, 340 incident BC events were observed. The CRS was well calibrated in the overall cohort with an O/E ratio of 1.11 (95% CI=0.99-1.23) and within deciles of predicted risk (Table). Importantly, in the highest risk decile, the O/E was 0.91 (95% CI=0.63-1.27) with CRS, but 0.67 (95% CI=0.46-0.94) with TC alone, illustrating the superior calibration of CRS. In a Cox model adjusted for age at testing, PRS had an HR per standard deviation (SD) of 1.48 (95% CI=1.33-1.64, p=2.55×10-13); the HR/SD was 1.43 (95% CI=1.29-1.59, p=1.61×10-11) after adjusting for family history. In a bivariate analysis using both CRS and TC to predict time to BC, CRS added significantly to the model after accounting for TC (HR/SD=2.89, 95% CI=2.12-3.94, p=1.20×10-11), whereas TC did not add significant information after accounting for CRS. 15,986 (12.3%) women were above the CRS high-risk threshold, including 123 with events. A total of 10,248 (7.9%) women were reclassified by the CRS model compared to the TC model. Among women who were classified as high-risk by TC, 32.6% were reclassified as low-risk by CRS; among those classified as low-risk by TC, 4.3% were reclassified as high-risk by CRS. The CRS high-risk group experienced events at over three times the rate of the low-risk group (HR=3.75, 95% CI=3.00-4.68, p=6.39×10-27). Conclusion: The CRS was well-calibrated in predicting BC and significantly improved upon a traditional risk factor model. Clinical use of the CRS may lead to improved BC prevention and screening strategies. Table: Absolute risk calibration by 5-year risk decile Incidence is reported per 1,000 women-years. 34 breast cancers were observed per decile. Citation Format: Brent Mabey, Elisha Hughes, Braden Probst, Holly J. Pederson, Timothy Simmons, Brian Morris, Brooke Hullinger, Susan Domchek, Charis Eng, Monique Gary, Jennifer Klemp, Semanti Mukherjee, Vijai Joseph, Kenneth Offit, Olufunmilayo I. Olopade, Sandhya Pruthi, Allison W. Kurian, Mark E. Robson, Pat Whitworth, Susanne Wagner, Jerry Lanchbury, Thomas Slavin, Alexander Gutin. PD14-05 Prospective longitudinal validation of a breast cancer risk prediction model in a cohort of 130,058 women [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2022 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2022 Dec 6-10; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2023;83(5 Suppl):Abstract nr PD14-05.

Abstract Background: Despite evidence of substantial breast cancer risk reduction, few high-risk women adopt chemopreventive medications such as selective estrogen receptor modulators (SERMs) or aromatase inhibitors (AIs). Women with benign breast disease, such as atypical hyperplasia (AH) or lobular carcinoma in situ (LCIS), have an increased risk of developing breast cancer and derive a greater benefit from antiestrogens compared to other high-risk women. Reasons for low uptake of chemoprevention include insufficient patient and clinician knowledge about antiestrogens, time constraints during the clinical encounter, and concerns about side effects. To address these barriers, we have developed patient and provider web-based decision support tools to improve informed choice about breast cancer chemoprevention among women with AH or LCIS. Study design: We are conducting a cluster-randomized controlled trial of clinical decision support to improve chemoprevention informed choice among women with AH or LCIS and their treating providers. Twenty-six U.S. sites through the SWOG Cancer Research Network were randomly assigned 1:1 to standard educational materials alone or in combination with the patient-centered decision aid (RealRisks) and provider decision support tool (BNAV). A total of 415 patients and 200 healthcare providers will be recruited from these sites. RealRisks consists of interactive modules to calculate personalized breast cancer risk and elicit preferences on chemoprevention. The modules are available in English and Spanish. BNAV is comprised of self-directed case-based learning modules on breast cancer risk assessment and chemoprevention. Patients complete questionnaires at baseline, 6 and 12 months. Providers complete surveys at baseline and after their enrolled patient’s 6-month clinical encounter. The primary endpoint is chemoprevention informed choice at 6 months, using a measure combining knowledge, attitude, and intention scales. Secondary endpoints include perceived breast cancer risk/worry, chemoprevention knowledge/intention, decision conflict/regret, shared decision-making, and chemoprevention uptake. For patients who begin chemoprevention, adherence and reasons for discontinuation are assessed annually for up to 5 years. Barriers and facilitators to implementing RealRisks and BNAV into clinic workflow will be assessed by conducting patient and provider interviews at baseline and mid-implementation. Eligibility criteria: Eligible patients include women, age 35-74 years, with AH or LCIS, no history of breast cancer, no prior use of SERMs or AIs, no bilateral mastectomies, English or Spanish-speaking, and access to the internet. Eligible providers include breast surgeons, medical oncologists, primary care providers, and physician extenders who see patients with AH or LCIS. Statistical methods: We have 90% power to detect a 15% increase in the frequency of chemoprevention informed choice with a 1-sided 0.025 level test, assuming an intraclass correlation (ICC) of 0.02 to account for clustering, roughly equal accrual at each site, 10% loss to follow-up, and ≤10% event rate in the control arm. Current/target accrual: The trial was activated on 9/1/2020. As of 7/7/2022, all 26 sites have been randomized, 157/200 providers and 184/415 patients have been enrolled. Discussion: Our hybrid effectiveness/implementation study seeks to evaluate the effectiveness of a multi-level intervention in promoting informed decision-making about breast cancer chemoprevention. Study results will provide valuable insights on how the decision support tools are integrated in diverse clinical settings. Citation Format: Katherine D. Crew, Garnet Anderson, Kathryn Arnold, Andrew Stieb, Jacquelyn N. Amenta, Cynthia Law, Ana Sandoval-Leon, Sarah Colonna, Tari King, Debra Mangino, Sandhya Pruthi, Maria Grosse Perdekamp, Christa Braun-Inglis, Stacy Krisher, Lisa Yee, Danielle Bertoni, Samantha Seaward, Kari B. Wisinski, Justin Floyd, Corrine Zarwan, Tarah J. Ballinger, Lindi VanderWalde, Masey M. Ross, Preston Steen, Shelly Lo, Alison Conlin, Kathleen Yost, John Ellerton, Erin Lin, Holly J. Pederson, Sagar Sardesai, Cheryl Jernigan, Dawn Hershman, Marian L. Neuhouser, Banu K. Arun, Rita Kukafka. SWOG 1904: Cluster-randomized controlled trial of patient and provider decision support to increase chemoprevention informed choice among women with atypical hyperplasia or lobular carcinoma in situ (MiCHOICE) [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2022 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2022 Dec 6-10; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2023;83(5 Suppl):Abstract nr OT1-15-01.

The NCCN Guidelines for Genetic/Familial High-Risk Assessment: Breast, Ovarian, and Pancreatic focus primarily on assessment of pathogenic or likely pathogenic variants associated with increased risk of breast, ovarian, and pancreatic cancer and recommended approaches to genetic testing/counseling and management strategies in individuals with these pathogenic or likely pathogenic variants. This manuscript focuses on cancer risk and risk management for BRCA-related breast/ovarian cancer syndrome and Li-Fraumeni syndrome. Carriers of a BRCA1/2 pathogenic or likely pathogenic variant have an excessive risk for both breast and ovarian cancer that warrants consideration of more intensive screening and preventive strategies. There is also evidence that risks of prostate cancer and pancreatic cancer are elevated in these carriers. Li-Fraumeni syndrome is a highly penetrant cancer syndrome associated with a high lifetime risk for cancer, including soft tissue sarcomas, osteosarcomas, premenopausal breast cancer, colon cancer, gastric cancer, adrenocortical carcinoma, and brain tumors.

The NCCN Guidelines for Genetic/Familial High-Risk Assessment: Breast, Ovarian, and Pancreatic provide recommendations for genetic testing and counseling for hereditary cancer syndromes, and risk management recommendations for patients who are diagnosed with syndromes associated with an increased risk of these cancers. The NCCN panel meets at least annually to review comments, examine relevant new data, and reevaluate and update recommendations. These NCCN Guidelines Insights summarize the panel’s discussion and most recent recommendations regarding criteria for high-penetrance genes associated with breast and ovarian cancer beyond BRCA1/2 , pancreas screening and genes associated with pancreatic cancer, genetic testing for the purpose of systemic therapy decision-making, and testing for people with Ashkenazi Jewish ancestry.

Abstract This abstract was not presented at the symposium.