Mulder, Chris J.

Validated nonbiopsy methods to assure duodenal mucosal healing in celiac disease are lacking, yet ongoing mucosal injury is associated with anemia, osteoporosis, and lymphoma. Most providers utilize clinical data as surrogates of mucosal status to avoid additional esophagogastroduodenoscopy. The reliability of such surrogates to predict mucosal recovery has been incompletely evaluated. The aim of this study was to rigorously assess patterns of histologic mucosal recovery at follow-up in celiac disease and to correlate findings with clinical data. Gastrointestinal pathologists from 13 centers evaluated initial and follow-up duodenal biopsies from 181 celiac disease patients. Marsh scores and intraepithelial lymphocytes (IELs)/100 enterocytes were assessed blindly. Histology at follow-up was correlated with symptoms, immunoglobulin A anti–tissue transglutaminase titers and gluten-free diet adherence. Fifty-six/181 (31%) patients had persistent villous blunting and 46/181 (25%) patients had just persistently elevated IELs at follow-up, with only 79/181 (44%) patients having complete histologic remission. IEL normalization (82/181; 45%) lagged villous recovery (125/181;69%). In a minority of patients, villous blunting was limited to proximal duodenal biopsies. No correlation was found between Marsh scores and symptoms, normalization of immunoglobulin A anti–tissue transglutaminase serology, or diet adherence. Children showed greater recovery of Marsh score (P<0.001) and IELs (P<0.01) than adults. Persistent mucosal injury is common in celiac disease, with discordant villous/IEL normalization. Pathologist awareness of expected findings in celiac disease follow-up biopsies, including their frequent lack of correlation with clinical data, is important for patient management, and has implications for eligibility criteria for therapeutics currently in development.

SummaryBackgroundRefractory coeliac disease is a severe complication of coeliac disease with heterogeneous outcome.AimTo create a prognostic model to estimate survival of patients with refractory coeliac disease.MethodsWe evaluated predictors of 5‐year mortality using Cox proportional hazards regression on subjects from a multinational registry. Bootstrap resampling was used to internally validate the individual factors and overall model performance. The mean of the estimated regression coefficients from 400 bootstrap models was used to derive a risk score for 5‐year mortality.ResultsThe multinational cohort was composed of 232 patients diagnosed with refractory coeliac disease across seven centres (range of 11–63 cases per centre). The median age was 53 years and 150 (64%) were women. A total of 51 subjects died during a 5‐year follow‐up (cumulative 5‐year all‐cause mortality = 30%). From a multiple variable Cox proportional hazards model, the following variables were significantly associated with 5‐year mortality: age at refractory coeliac disease diagnosis (per 20 year increase, hazard ratio = 2.21; 95% confidence interval, CI: 1.38–3.55), abnormal intraepithelial lymphocytes (hazard ratio = 2.85; 95% CI: 1.22–6.62), and albumin (per 0.5 unit increase, hazard ratio = 0.72; 95% CI: 0.61–0.85). A simple weighted three‐factor risk score was created to estimate 5‐year survival.ConclusionsUsing data from a multinational registry and previously reported risk factors, we create a prognostic model to predict 5‐year mortality among patients with refractory coeliac disease. This new model may help clinicians to guide treatment and follow‐up.