Perrone, Ronald D.

Significance Statement Changes in albuminuria and GFR slope are individually used as surrogate end points in clinical trials of CKD progression, and studies have demonstrated that each is associated with treatment effects on clinical end points. In this study, the authors sought to develop a conceptual framework that combines both surrogate end points to better predict treatment effects on clinical end points in Phase 2 trials. The results demonstrate that information from the combined treatment effects on albuminuria and GFR slope improves the prediction of treatment effects on the clinical end point for Phase 2 trials with sample sizes between 100 and 200 patients and duration of follow-up ranging from 1 to 2 years. These findings may help inform design of clinical trials for interventions aimed at slowing CKD progression. Background Changes in log urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) and GFR slope are individually used as surrogate end points in clinical trials of CKD progression. Whether combining these surrogate end points might strengthen inferences about clinical benefit is unknown. Methods Using Bayesian meta-regressions across 41 randomized trials of CKD progression, we characterized the combined relationship between the treatment effects on the clinical end point (sustained doubling of serum creatinine, GFR <15 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 , or kidney failure) and treatment effects on UACR change and chronic GFR slope after 3 months. We applied the results to the design of Phase 2 trials on the basis of UACR change and chronic GFR slope in combination. Results Treatment effects on the clinical end point were strongly associated with the combination of treatment effects on UACR change and chronic slope. The posterior median meta-regression coefficients for treatment effects were −0.41 (95% Bayesian Credible Interval, −0.64 to −0.17) per 1 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 per year for the treatment effect on GFR slope and −0.06 (95% Bayesian Credible Interval, −0.90 to 0.77) for the treatment effect on UACR change. The predicted probability of clinical benefit when considering both surrogates was determined primarily by estimated treatment effects on UACR when sample size was small (approximately 60 patients per treatment arm) and follow-up brief (approximately 1 year), with the importance of GFR slope increasing for larger sample sizes and longer follow-up. Conclusions In Phase 2 trials of CKD with sample sizes of 100–200 patients per arm and follow-up between 1 and 2 years, combining information from treatment effects on UACR change and GFR slope improved the prediction of treatment effects on clinical end points.

Background and objectives The progression of polycystic liver disease is not well understood. The purpose of the study is to evaluate the associations of polycystic liver progression with other disease progression variables and classify liver progression on the basis of patient's age, height-adjusted liver cystic volume, and height-adjusted liver volume. Design, setting, participants, & measurements Prospective longitudinal magnetic resonance images from 670 patients with early autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease for up to 14 years of follow-up were evaluated to measure height-adjusted liver cystic volume and height-adjusted liver volume. Among them, 245 patients with liver cyst volume >50 ml at baseline were included in the longitudinal analysis. Linear mixed models on log-transformed height-adjusted liver cystic volume and height-adjusted liver volume were fitted to approximate mean annual rate of change for each outcome. The association of sex, body mass index, genotype, baseline height-adjusted total kidney volume, and Mayo imaging class was assessed. We calculated height-adjusted liver cystic volume ranges for each specific age and divided them into five classes on the basis of annual percentage increase in height-adjusted liver cystic volume. Results The mean annual growth rate of height-adjusted liver cystic volume was 12% (95% confidence interval, 11.1% to 13.1%; P <0.001), whereas that for height-adjusted liver volume was 2% (95% confidence interval, 1.9% to 2.6%; P <0.001). Women had higher baseline height-adjusted liver cystic volume than men, but men had higher height-adjusted liver cystic volume growth rate than women by 2% (95% confidence interval, 0.4% to 4.5%; P =0.02). Whereas the height-adjusted liver cystic volume growth rate decreased in women after menopause, no decrease was observed in men at any age. Body mass index, genotype, and baseline height-adjusted total kidney volume were not associated with the growth rate of height-adjusted liver cystic volume or height-adjusted liver volume. According to the height-adjusted liver cystic volume growth rate, patients were classified into five classes (number of women, men in each class): A (24, six); B (44, 13); C (43, 48); D (28, 17); and E (13, nine). Conclusions Compared with height-adjusted liver volume, the use of height-adjusted liver cystic volume showed greater separations in volumetric progression of polycystic liver disease. Similar to the Mayo imaging classification for the kidney, the progression of polycystic liver disease may be categorized on the basis of patient’s age and height-adjusted liver cystic volume.

Background Acute changes in GFR can occur after initiation of interventions targeting progression of CKD. These acute changes complicate the interpretation of long-term treatment effects. Methods To assess the magnitude and consistency of acute effects in randomized clinical trials and explore factors that might affect them, we performed a meta-analysis of 53 randomized clinical trials for CKD progression, enrolling 56,413 participants with at least one estimated GFR measurement by 6 months after randomization. We defined acute treatment effects as the mean difference in GFR slope from baseline to 3 months between randomized groups. We performed univariable and multivariable metaregression to assess the effect of intervention type, disease state, baseline GFR, and albuminuria on the magnitude of acute effects. Results The mean acute effect across all studies was −0.21 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 (95% confidence interval, −0.63 to 0.22) over 3 months, with substantial heterogeneity across interventions (95% coverage interval across studies, −2.50 to +2.08 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 ). We observed negative average acute effects in renin angiotensin system blockade, BP lowering, and sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor trials, and positive acute effects in trials of immunosuppressive agents. Larger negative acute effects were observed in trials with a higher mean baseline GFR. Conclusion The magnitude and consistency of acute GFR effects vary across different interventions, and are larger at higher baseline GFR. Understanding the nature and magnitude of acute effects can help inform the optimal design of randomized clinical trials evaluating disease progression in CKD.

Abstract Background Pain is the highest prioritized patient-reported outcome in people with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) but remains infrequently and inconsistently measured in clinical trials and poorly managed in clinical settings. A recently completed systematic review of pain in ADPKD identified 26 different outcome measures. None of these measures were considered appropriate as a core outcome measure due to the lack of patient-important dimensions, inadequate content, relatively long duration of completion time and limited evidence to support psychometric robustness. Methods We convened an international Standardized Outcomes in Nephrology–Polycystic Kidney Disease consensus workshop involving 21 patients/caregivers and 40 health professionals (clinicians, nurses, researchers, policy makers and industry representatives) from 18 countries to discuss the identification or development of a core outcome measure for pain. Results Four themes were identified highlighting fundamental issues for the measurement of pain in ADPKD: distressing and disrupting life participation; variability and ambiguity in defining pain; stigma, frustration and adaptation to pain; and ensuring validity and feasibility of pain measures. Conclusions Existing measures were found to be insufficient in capturing pain as a core outcome and there was consensus on the need for a new validated measure that is simple, succinct and addresses the impact of pain on life participation. This measure will facilitate the appropriate prioritization of pain in all trials and guide clinical decision making in people with ADPKD.

Significance Statement Patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease are treated with tolvaptan, a V2 receptor antagonist, to slow progression toward ESKD. In theory, tolvaptan could have both BP-increasing and BP-decreasing effects. To investigate the magnitude and time course of the effect of tolvaptan use on BP, the authors conducted a post hoc analysis of data from the TEMPO 3:4 trial, which randomized 1445 patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease to tolvaptan or placebo. Their analysis shows that directly after start of tolvaptan therapy, BP does not change, but in the long term, BP gradually becomes lower in patients with tolvaptan compared with placebo. This observation might be attributed to the beneficial effect of tolvaptan on disease progression, a sustained natriuretic effect, or both. Background The V2 receptor antagonist tolvaptan is prescribed to patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease to slow disease progression. Tolvaptan may alter BP via various acute and chronic effects. Methods To investigate the magnitude and time course of the effect of tolvaptan use on BP, we conducted a post hoc study of the TEMPO 3:4 trial, which included 1445 patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease randomized 2:1 to tolvaptan or placebo for 3 years. We evaluated systolic and diastolic BP, mean arterial pressure, hypertension status, and use and dosing of antihypertensive drugs over the course of the trial. Results At baseline, BP did not differ between study arms. After 3 weeks of tolvaptan use, mean body weight had decreased from 79.7 to 78.8 kg, and mean plasma sodium increased from 140.4 to 142.6 mmol/L (both P <0.001), suggesting a decrease in circulating volume. We observed none of these changes in the placebo arm. Nonetheless, BP remained similar in the study arms. After 3 years of treatment, however, mean systolic BP was significantly lower in participants receiving tolvaptan versus placebo (126 versus 129 mm Hg, respectively; P =0.002), as was mean diastolic BP (81.2 versus 82.6 mm Hg, respectively; P =0.01). These differences leveled off at follow-up 3 weeks after discontinuation of the study medication. Use of antihypertensive drugs remained similar in both study arms during the entire study. Conclusions Long-term treatment with tolvaptan gradually lowered BP compared with placebo, which may be attributed to a beneficial effect on disease progression, a continued natriuretic effect, or both. Clinical Trial registry name and registration number: TEMPO 3:4, NCT00428948

Background and objectives Tolvaptan slows kidney function decline in patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) at risk of rapid progression. In the 3-year Tolvaptan Efficacy and Safety in Management of ADPKD and Its Outcomes (TEMPO) 3:4, 2-year extension to TEMPO 3:4 (TEMPO 4:4), and 1-year Replicating Evidence of Preserved Renal Function: An Investigation of Tolvaptan Safety and Efficacy in ADPKD (REPRISE) trials, aquaretic adverse events were common. Serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) or aspartate aminotransferase (AST) elevations occurred in all three studies. Three patients met Hy Law criteria (ALT or AST more than three times and total bilirubin more than two times the upper limit of normal) for severe drug-induced liver injury (two in TEMPO 3:4 and one in TEMPO 4:4). In REPRISE, liver enzyme monitoring frequency was increased to monthly, with no Hy Law cases. A long-term, phase 3 safety study has further characterized tolvaptan safety. Design, setting, participants, & measurements Subjects who completed TEMPO 4:4, REPRISE, or other tolvaptan trials could enroll in this prospective, multinational, open-label safety study. Assessments included monthly liver enzyme testing during the first 18 months of tolvaptan exposure and every 3 months thereafter. Results Among 1803 subjects, median tolvaptan exposure during the extension was 651 days (interquartile range, 538–924), and cumulative exposure (extension and previous trials) was ≤11 years. Subjects entering from REPRISE placebo experienced more aquaretic adverse events compared with subjects from TEMPO 4:4 or REPRISE tolvaptan ( i.e ., patients with prior long-term tolvaptan exposure). Liver enzyme elevations also occurred more frequently in subjects from REPRISE placebo. Percentages experiencing ALT ≥3/≥5/ ≥10/≥20 times the upper limit of normal were 3.2%/2.1%/0.9%/0.7%, respectively, in subjects from REPRISE placebo and 0.6%–1.1%/0.0%–0.1%/0%/0%, respectively, in those from REPRISE tolvaptan and TEMPO 4:4. Percentages experiencing AST ≥3/ ≥5/≥10/≥20 times the upper limit of normal were 6.9%/3.8%/2.3%/0.8%, respectively, in subjects from REPRISE placebo and 0.9%–2.0%/0.0%–1.0%/0%/0%, respectively, in those from REPRISE tolvaptan and TEMPO 4:4. No Hy Law cases occurred. Conclusions No new safety signals emerged during this long-term extension. Monthly liver function testing for the first 18 months of treatment appeared to enable effective detection and management of transaminase elevations. Clinical Trial registry name and registration number: Open Label Extension of TEMPO 3:4, NCT02251275