Herrin, Jeph

Abstract Variation in de-adoption of ineffective or unsafe treatments is not well-understood. We examined de-adoption of erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESA) in anemia treatment among patients with chronic kidney diseases (CKD) following new clinical evidence of harm and ineffectiveness (the TREAT trial) and the FDA's revision of its safety warning. We used an interrupted time series approach to estimate changes in use of epoetin alfa (EPO) and darbepoetin alfa (DPO) in the commercial and Medicare Advantage (MA) and Medicare fee-for-service (FFS) populations. We also examined how changes in both trends and levels of use were associated with physicians’ characteristics. Study cohort included patients with CKD stages 3 to 5 during 2007-2015. Use of DPO and EPO declined over the study period. There were no consistent changes in DPO trend across insurance groups, but the level of DPO use decreased right after the FDA revision in all groups. The decline in EPO use trend was faster after the TREAT trial for all groups. Nephrologists were largely more responsive to evidence than primary care physicians. Differences by physician's gender, and age were not consistent across insurance populations and types of ESA.

AbstractObjectiveTo describe physicians’ variation in de‐adopting concurrent statin and fibrate therapy for type 2 diabetic patients following a reversal in clinical evidence.Data SourcesWe analyzed 2007‐2015 claims data from OptumLabs® Data Warehouse, a longitudinal, real‐world data asset with de‐identified administrative claims and electronic health record data.Study DesignWe modeled fibrate use among Medicare Advantage and commercially insured type 2 diabetic statin users before and after the publication of the ACCORD lipid trial, which found statins and fibrates were no more effective than statins alone in reducing cardiovascular events among type 2 diabetic patients. We modeled fibrate use trends with physician random effects and physician characteristics such as age and specialty.Data ExtractionWe identified patient‐year‐quarters with one year of continuous insurance enrollment, type 2 diabetes diagnoses, and fibrate use. We designated the physician most responsible for patients’ diabetes care based on evaluation and management visits and prescriptions of glucose‐lowering drugs.Principal FindingsFibrate use increased by 0.12 percentage points per quarter among commercial patients (95% CI, 0.10 to 0.14) and 0.17 percentage points per quarter among Medicare Advantage patients (95% CI, 0.13 to 0.20) before the trial and then decreased by 0.16 percentage points per quarter among commercial patients (95% CI, −0.18 to −0.15) and 0.05 percentage points per quarter among Medicare Advantage patients (95% CI, −0.06 to −0.03) after the trial. However, 45% of physicians treating commercial patients and 48% of physicians treating Medicare Advantage patients had positive trends in prescribing following the trial. Physicians’ characteristics did not explain their variation (pseudo R2 = 0.000).ConclusionOn average, physicians decreased fibrate prescribing following the ACCORD lipid trial. However, many physicians increased prescribing following the trial. Observable physician characteristics did not explain variations in prescribing. Future research should examine whether physicians vary similarly in other de‐adoption settings.

SummaryBackgroundGastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) frequently occurs following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for acute coronary syndrome (ACS) with the prescription of P2Y12 inhibiting antiplatelet agents. Compared with clopidogrel, the newer P2Y12 inhibitors lower major adverse cardiac events with similar or possibly higher major bleeding events. The comparative GIB rates of these medications remain poorly understood.AimTo compare GIB rates associated with clopidogrel, prasugrel and ticagrelor using national medical and pharmacy claims data from privately insured and Medicare Advantage enrollees .MethodsPropensity score and inverse probability treatment weighting were used to balance baseline characteristics among treatment groups. The 1‐year GIB risk was calculated using weighted Cox proportional hazard models and expressed as hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) and number needed to harm (NNH).ResultsWe identified 37 019 patients with ACS (non‐ST elevation ACS [NSTE‐ACS] and ST‐elevation myocardial infarction [STEMI]) within 14 days of a PCI (mean age 63 years and 70% male). Clopidogrel prescription was most common (69%) with prasugrel (16%) and ticagrelor (14%) prescribed less frequently. When compared with clopidogrel, ticagrelor was associated with a 34% risk reduction (HR 0.66; 95% CI: 0.54–0.81) in GIB overall and with NSTE‐ACS, and a 37% GIB risk reduction (HR 0.63; 95% CI: 0.42–0.93) in STEMI patients. When compared with clopidogrel, prasugrel was associated with a 21% risk reduction (HR 0.79; 95% CI: 0.64–0.97) overall, a 36% GIB risk reduction (HR 0.64; 95% CI: 0.49–0.85) in STEMI patients but no reduction of GIB risk in NSTE‐ACS patients.ConclusionsIn the first year following PCI, ticagrelor or prasugrel are associated with fewer GIB events than clopidogrel.

610 Background: Personalized treatment for clinical T1 renal cortical masses (RCMs) should account for competing risks related to tumor and patient characteristics. Using a contemporary multi-institutional cohort, we developed treatment-specific prediction models for cancer-specific mortality (CSM), other-cause mortality (OCM), and 90-day complication rates for patients managed with surgery, thermal ablation (TA), and active surveillance (AS). Methods: Preoperative clinical and radiological features were collected for eligible patients aged 18-91 years treated at four academic centers from 2000-2016. Prediction models used competing risks regressions for CSM and OCM and logistic regressions for 90-day Clavien >3 complications, adjusting for tumor size as well as patient age, sex, ECOG performance status (PS), and Charlson comorbidity index (CCI). Predictions accounted for missing data using multiple imputation. Results: After excluding 25 patients with no follow-up, the cohort included 4995 patients treated with radical nephrectomy (RN, n=1270), partial nephrectomy (PN, n=2842), thermal ablation (n=479), or active surveillance (n=404). Median follow-up was 5.1 years (IQR 2.5-8.5). Predictions from the fitted model are shown in an online calculator ( https://rgulati.shinyapps.io/rcc-risk-calculator ). To illustrate the use of this calculator for a specific patient, a 70-year-old female with a 5.5 cm RCM, PS of 2, and CCI of 3 has a predicted 5-year CSM of 4-7% across treatments, 5-year OCM of 34-49%, and 90-day risk of Clavien ≥3 complications of 4%, 10%, and 6% for RN, PN, and TA respectively. Conclusions: Personalized treatment selection for cT1 RCM is challenging. We present a competing risk calculator that incorporates pretreatment features to quantify competing causes of mortality and treatment-associated complications. Pending validation, this tool may be used in clinical practice to provide patients with estimated individualized treatment-specific probabilities of competing causes of death and complication risks to facilitate shared decision-making.

AbstractObjectiveTo test the hypotheses that use of the Head CT Choice decision aid would be similarly effective in all parent/patient dyads but parents with high (vs low) numeracy experience a greater increase in knowledge while those with low (vs high) health literacy experience a greater increase in trust.MethodsThis was a secondary analysis of a cluster randomized trial conducted at seven sites. One hundred seventy‐two clinicians caring for 971 children at intermediate risk for clinically important traumatic brain injuries were randomized to shared decision making facilitated by the DA (n = 493) or to usual care (n = 478). We assessed for subgroup effects based on patient and parent characteristics, including socioeconomic status (health literacy, numeracy and income). We tested for interactions using regression models with indicators for arm assignment and study site.ResultsThe decision aid did not increase knowledge more in parents with high numeracy (P for interaction [Pint] = 0.14) or physician trust more in parents with low health literacy (Pint = 0.34). The decision aid decreased decisional conflict more in non‐white parents (decisional conflict scale, −8.14, 95% CI: −12.33 to −3.95; Pint = 0.05) and increased physician trust more in socioeconomically disadvantaged parents (trust in physician scale, OR: 8.59, 95% CI: 2.35‐14.83; Pint = 0.04).ConclusionsUse of the Head CT Choice decision aid resulted in less decisional conflict in non‐white parents and greater physician trust in socioeconomically disadvantaged parents. Decision aids may be particularly effective in potentially vulnerable parents.

Although scholars have long studied circumstances that shape prejudice, inquiry into factors associated with long-term prejudice reduction has been more limited. Using a 6-year longitudinal study of non-Black physicians in training ( N = 3,134), we examined the effect of three medical-school factors—interracial contact, medical-school environment, and diversity training—on explicit and implicit racial bias measured during medical residency. When accounting for all three factors, previous contact, and baseline bias, we found that quality of contact continued to predict lower explicit and implicit bias, although the effects were very small. Racial climate, modeling of bias, and hours of diversity training in medical school were not consistently related to less explicit or implicit bias during residency. These results highlight the benefits of interracial contact during an impactful experience such as medical school. Ultimately, professional institutions can play a role in reducing anti-Black bias by encouraging more frequent, and especially more favorable, interracial contact.