Tice, Jeffrey A.

Purpose Women with proliferative breast lesions are candidates for primary prevention, but few risk models incorporate benign findings to assess breast cancer risk. We incorporated benign breast disease (BBD) diagnoses into the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) risk model, the only breast cancer risk assessment tool that uses breast density. Methods We developed and validated a competing-risk model using 2000 to 2010 SEER data for breast cancer incidence and 2010 vital statistics to adjust for the competing risk of death. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate the relative hazards for age, race/ethnicity, family history of breast cancer, history of breast biopsy, BBD diagnoses, and breast density in the BCSC. Results We included 1,135,977 women age 35 to 74 years undergoing mammography with no history of breast cancer; 17% of the women had a prior breast biopsy. During a mean follow-up of 6.9 years, 17,908 women were diagnosed with invasive breast cancer. The BCSC BBD model slightly overpredicted risk (expected-to-observed ratio, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.06) and had modest discriminatory accuracy (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, 0.665). Among women with proliferative findings, adding BBD to the model increased the proportion of women with an estimated 5-year risk of 3% or higher from 9.3% to 27.8% (P < .001). Conclusion The BCSC BBD model accurately estimates women's risk for breast cancer using breast density and BBD diagnoses. Greater numbers of high-risk women eligible for primary prevention after BBD diagnosis are identified using the BCSC BBD model.

Abstract Purpose: Mammographic breast density is an established and strong risk factor for breast cancer. Recently, a number of common genetic susceptibility loci have been identified as risk factors for breast cancer. We present the first report on the relative contribution of 76 validated breast cancer susceptibility loci, in the context of a polygenic risk score (PRS), to the breast density and breast cancer association. We also examine whether the PRS improves prediction of the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) 5-year risk model above and beyond breast density and clinical factors included in the model. Methods: The study population included 1643 cases and 2397 controls from three independent epidemiologic studies: the Mayo Mammography Health Study (MMHS), the Mayo Clinic Breast Cancer Study (MCBCS), and the Bavarian Breast Cancer Cases and Control Study (BBCC). Data collected on patients in each of the studies included clinical risk factor, BI-RADS breast density [a) almost entirely fat; b) scattered fibroglandular densities; c) heterogeneously dense; and d) extremely dense] and genotypes for the 76 breast cancer susceptibility loci known at the time of the study. We formed a PRS from the reported per-SNP odds ratios (OR) for 76 known breast cancer susceptibility loci, and evaluated whether BI-RADS density and the PRS were independent risk factors for breast cancer, when adjusted for age, 1/BMI and study. We also incorporated the PRS (OR) into the BCSC 5-year risk model and estimated 5-year risk for the MMHS nested case-control study of 339 invasive cases, 765 controls. Results: BI-RADS density (p&lt;0.0001) and PRS (p&lt;0.0001) were independent risk factors for breast cancer that together showed greater discrimination of risk (AUC=0.69) than density (AUC=0.66; ΔAUC=0.029) or PRS score alone (AUC=0.68; ΔAUC=0.013; p&lt;0.001). Relative to those with scattered fibroglandular densities and average (2nd quartile) PRS, women with extremely dense breasts and in the highest PRS quartile, had a 2.7 fold (95%CI: 1.7-4.1) increased risk of breast cancer, while those with fatty breasts and in the lowest PRS quartile had a reduced risk (OR=0.30, 95%CI: 0.18-0.51). Incorporation of the PRS into the BCSC risk model improved discrimination (ΔAUC=0.031, p=0.001), for a net reclassification improvement of 20% (95%CI: 11%-28%), split equally among cases (9%) and controls (11%). Conclusion: BI-RADS density and the PRS are both important risk factors for breast cancer that can be included in breast cancer risk models to improve prediction of this disease. Using these models to identify high and low-risk risk groups will facilitate improved tailored screening and primary prevention interventions. Citation Format: Celine M. Vachon, V. Shane Pankratz, Christopher G. Scott, Lothar Haeberle, Elad Ziv, Matthew R. Jensen, Kathleen R. Brandt, Dana H. Whaley, Janet E. Olson, Katharina Heusinger, Carolin C. Hack, Sebastian M. Jud, Matthias W. Beckmann, Jeffrey A. Tice, Kristen S. Purrington, Thomas A. Sellers, Karla Kerlikowske, Peter A. Fasching, Fergus J. Couch. The contribution of common breast cancer susceptibility loci to the breast density and breast cancer association and the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) risk model. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 105th Annual Meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research; 2014 Apr 5-9; San Diego, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2014;74(19 Suppl):Abstract nr 940. doi:10.1158/1538-7445.AM2014-940