Foster, Nathan R.

4065 Background: Tumor infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) and tumor budding (linked to epithelial mesenchymal transition) may influence metastatic potential and patient prognosis. We analyzed these features and their relative contribution to survival among low (T1-3 N1) and high (T4 and/or N2) risk groups, defined by the IDEA study, used to inform the duration of adjuvant chemotherapy in stage III colon cancer. Methods: Among 1,532 patients (low risk n=804; high risk n=728) treated in a phase III adjuvant trial of FOLFOX + cetuximab (x 6 months), intraepithelial TIL densities and tumor budding were quantified at microscopy in routine histologic sections. Optimal cutpoints were determined in association with 5-yr disease-free survival (DFS). Relative contribution of variables to DFS was calculated using χ2 from Harrell’s rms R package based on multivariable Cox regression models. Results: In the overall cohort, the tumor budding/TILs combined variable was more robust for predition of DFS than either alone. Budding/TILs was significantly associated with DFS in both low (HRadj, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.02-2.48; p=.0273) and high (HRadj, 2.82; 95% CI, 1.72-4.63; p<.0001) risk patients. We then determined its relative contribution (%) to DFS (Table). Among low risk, budding/TILs ranked second (24.4%) behind KRAS status (45.5%) and ahead of treatment arm (7.2%) and mismatch repair (MMR) status (6.1%). Among high risk, budding/TILs contributed the most to DFS (45.4%) followed by primary tumor sidedness (13.0%), performance status (12.0%), and MMR (10.4%). Conclusions: Tumor budding/TILs provides robust prognostic stratification by risk group to improve anatomic tumor staging. The relative contribution of budding/TILs to DFS was second only to KRAS status in low risk patients, and was the most important predictor of DFS in high risk patients. Evaluation in patients treated with 3 vs 6 mos of adjuvant chemotherapy is warranted. [Table: see text]

11119 Background: Evaluation of prognostic factors in carcinoid tumors of the lung is limited due to the rarity of disease. This study assessed Ki-67 expression and other clinical variables as prognostic factors in 262 patients. Methods: A systematic search of Mayo Clinic lung cancer epidemiology and tumor registry databases from 1997 to 2009 identified 449 consecutive patients, with 262 having available tissue blocks [40 atypical carcinoids (AC) and 222 typical carcinoids (TC)]. Clinical data were collected by chart review. Tissue blocks were reviewed by 1/3 pathologists using WHO criteria. Tumors were tested for the Ki-67 index using digital image analysis (tumor tracing) by two operators. The association and predictive value of the factors with recurrence-free and overall survival (RFS and OS) were explored using univariable Cox proportional Hazards model and concordance (c) index. Results: Age, stage, smoking history, lymph node (LN) involvement and Ki-67 index were significant prognostic factors for RFS and OS. Median follow-up on alive-patients is 5 years (range: 0.006-5). Median percentage of Ki-67 index of AC and TC were 1.61% and 0.56% (P<0.0001), respectively. Patients with Ki-67 ≥ 1% had significantly worse RFS (HR=3.69, P<0.0001) and OS (HR=3.69, P=0.0007) compared with Ki-67 < 1% group. The c-index of Ki-67 (0.65) was comparable to the pathologic distinction between AC and TC (0.62 for original diagnosis and 0.63 for central-reviewed diagnosis). Conclusions: Ki-67 index cutoff value of 1% is a valuable prognostic biomarker for pulmonary carcinoids based on this large cohort. Our data also provide strong evidence for clinical variables such as age, stage, smoking history, and LN involvement as clinical prognostic factors in pulmonary carcinoids. A prognostic calculator incorporating Ki-67 and clinical variables is under development. [Table: see text]

2562 Background: Empiric chemotherapy (taxane/platinum) is standard for CUP. Because prognosis is poor, novel approaches are needed. The PI3K/mTOR pathway is frequently dysregulated in cancer. Everolimus (E), an mTOR inhibitor, is approved for multiple malignancies. We performed a phase II study of Pac + Carb + E as first-line therapy in metastatic CUP patients (pts). We additionally determined if a gene expression profiling (GEP) test that identifies tissue of origin (Pathwork Tissue of Origin) could identify responsive pts. (NCT00936702) Methods: Newly diagnosed, untreated CUP pts were eligible. Central pathology review confirmed CUP prior to registration; GEP was performed on formalin fixed tumor tissue. Pac (200 mg/m2), Carb (AUC=6) and E (30 mg once weekly) were delivered every 3 wks until progression or intolerable adverse events (AEs). The primary endpoint was confirmed response, with ≥11 of 50 responses (22%) needed for trial success. Secondary endpoints were OS, progression-free survival (PFS) and AEs. Results: 46 pts (median age 61) received a median 4 cycles (range: 1-33). 39 (85%), 21 (46%) and 1 (2%) experienced ≥1 grade (gr) 3+, 4+, or 5 (sepsis) AE, with gr 3+ hematologic AE most common (74%). Of 44 evaluable pts, 15 had a confirmed response (RR 34%, 95% CI: 21-50%), with a median PFS and OS of 4.1 and 10.1 mos, respectively. Adequate tissue for GEP was available in 36 pts and predicted 10 different sites of origin. In pts with a predicted tissue of origin in which taxane/platinum is standardly used, higher RR and significantly longer PFS and OS were observed compared with pts whose GEP identified a malignancy where taxane/platinum is not standard (Table). Conclusions: In pts with untreated CUP, Carb +Pac +E demonstrated promising antitumor activity. The GEP test identified patients clinically responsive to Carb/Pac/E therapy, and may be useful to select CUP pts for specific antitumor regimens. Clinical trial information: NCT00936702. [Table: see text]

7605 Background: Overall survival (OS) can be partitioned into progression-free survival (PFS) and PPS. PPS helps to understand trial results, especially when PFS and OS data on trial treatment effects are discordant. At ASCO 2011, we reported that the magnitude of difference in the PFS estimates using different DP date methods was large enough to alter trial conclusions. Here, we investigate the impact of the DP date method on 1) PPS estimates, and 2) predictive utility of DP metrics on subsequent OS (SOS). Methods: Individual patient (pt) data from 14 trials were pooled. DP date was determined using: reported progression date (RPD) (method 1, M1), one day after last progression-free (PF) scan (M2), and midpoint between last PF scan and RPD (M3). PPS was estimated using the method of Kaplan-Meier for the 3 DP date methods. A flexible landmark analysis at 2, 4, and 6 months (mos) using Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess the impact of DP status (progression versus no-progression) on SOS (using M1, M2, or M3). Results: Among NSCLC (SCLC), 87% (91%) of pts reported DP. As expected, the PPS estimates were the lowest for RPD, highest for M2, and in-between for M3 (a direct consequence of the DP date method); with no difference by arm for the randomized trials. Regardless of the DP date method, patients who were progression-free had improved SOS (NSCLC: Hazard ratio, HR<=0.33; p < 0.0001; SCLC: HR<=0.48; p < 0.002) at each landmark time point, with comparable concordance index (SCLC: 0.57-0.65; NSCLC: 0.63-0.67), i.e., ability to discriminate patients with different SOS outcomes. Conclusions: While the DP date methods do not impact the predictive utility of the DP metrics, they significantly impact PPS estimates. The translation of a significant treatment effect on PFS to an effect on OS is influenced by PPS (longer PPS dilutes effect on OS). Standards for declaring DP date are thus critical to trial design and for trial go/no-go decisions. [Table: see text]

7510 Background: We previously demonstrated that PFS may be a candidate surrogate endpoint for OS in ES-SCLC using data from 3 randomized trials (Foster, Cancer 2011). Here, we sought to formally assess the patient- and trial-level surrogacy of PFS using data from 9 additional randomized phase II and III trials conducted by the NCI-funded cancer cooperative groups since 1986. Methods: Individual patient data from all 12 trials (3178 patients: 9 phase III and 3 phase II) were pooled. OS was the primary endpoint in all phase III trials; 3 phase III and 1 phase II trial were positive per protocol. Patient-level surrogacy (Kendall’s tau) was assessed using the Clayton copula bivariate survival model. Trial-level surrogacy was assessed via association of the log hazard ratios on OS and PFS across trials, including: weighted (by trial size) least squares regression of Cox model effects (R² WLS) and weighted (by trial size) correlation of the copula effects (R² Copula). One trial had 4 treatment arms thus 14 total two-arm comparisons were made. Results: With a median follow-up of 41.8 months in the 106 patients still alive, the median OS and PFS across trials were 9.7 months (95% CI: 9.5, 9.9) and 5.7 months (95% CI: 5.5, 5.8), respectively. There were 3120 PFS events in total (2564 disease progressions and 556 deaths without progression). The median time from progression to death was 4.1 months (95% CI: 3.9, 4.3). PFS showed modest association with OS at the patient-level (tau= 0.56) and at the trial-level (R² WLS = 0.58; R² Copula (standard error) = 0.55 (0.29)). The 95% CIs for the predicted HR for OS given observed HR on PFS under a weighted leave-one-out prediction always included the observed HR for OS; however such intervals were wide, suggesting uncertainty on the practical use of PFS as a surrogate for OS in this setting. Conclusions: PFS failed to demonstrate surrogacy for OS in ES-SCLC based on this large pooled analysis. Given that the difference in the median PFS and OS is less than 6 months, we recommend using OS as the primary endpoint in phase III trials of previously untreated ES-SCLC.

7073 Background: In preclinical studies, combinations of bortezomib and RT result in synergistic tumor killing (Cancer Chemother Pharmacol. 2007;59:207-15). Our group reported the results from the phase I portion of this study previously (J Clin Oncol. 200;28 (suppl; abstr 7085)). Based on these data, we undertook a phase II study of bortezomib in combination with paclitaxel/CBCDA and RT. Methods: Based on results from our previously reported phase I trial, systemic therapy included bortezomib (1.2 mg/m² IV days 1,4,8,11), paclitaxel (175 mg/m² IV day 2), and carboplatin (CBCDA; AUC=6 day 2) given every 3 weeks for 2 cycles. Thoracic radiotherapy (RT) included 60Gy/30 daily fractions starting day 1. The primary endpoint was the 12-month survival rate. If 41 or more of these 60 patients (68%) were alive at least 12 months after study entry, the trial would be deemed as positive and further study would be warranted. Results: 27 pts were enrolled to the phase II portion: M/F=17/10; stage IIIA/IIIB=13/14; ECOG PS 0/1=9/18; and median age: 58 (range 43-79). 18 pts (67%) completed therapy per protocol. At a planned interim analysis, 23 of 26 evaluable patients (88.5%, 95% CI: 70-98%) survived for at least 6 months, which exceeded the boundary of 21 or more needed to continue to full accrual. This trial could have continued per protocol, but was closed early due to slow accrual. With a median follow-up of 15.0 months in the 17 patients still alive, the 12-month survival rate was 71% (95% CI: 49 – 85). The median OS was 19 months (95% CI: 11 – no upper). Grade 3 or higher adverse events (regardless of attribution) were reported in 22 (82%) patients. Grade 4/5 adverse events were reported in 15 (56%) patients. There was one grade 5 event (pneumonitis). The most common (5 or more patients) grade 3/4 adverse events were fatigue (22%), leukopenia (63%), neutropenia (67%), and thrombocytopenia (44%). Conclusions: The addition of bortezomib resulted in high levels of severe hematologic toxicity, but also demonstrated evidence of activity with a 12-month survival rate of 71% and a median OS of 19 months. Further testing of this regimen in a larger study appears warranted.

20023 Background: EGFR is a transmembrane receptor tyrosine kinase belonging to the ErbB family of proteins. Anti-EGFR antibodies have shown efficacy as monotherapy and can enhance cytotoxic chemotherapy in patients with advanced colorectal cancers. We studied EGFR expression in primary colon cancers and its association with, microsatellite instability (MSI), clinicopathological variables and patient survival rates. Methods: Archival colon carcinomas were studied from patients with high risk Dukes’ stage B2 (n = 78) and C (n = 230) patients enrolled in a prior adjuvant trial of 5-fluorouracil, leucovorin plus standard dose or high-dose levamisole (NCCTG 91–46–53). EGFR expression (anti-EGFR H11 antibody, DAKO) was analyzed by immunohistochemistry (IHC) and intensity (0–3+), extent and their product (weighted score) were determined. MSI was analyzed using BAT26 and expression of hMLH1, hMSH2 and hMSH6 proteins by IHC. Patients were censored at 5 years after randomization for DFS and censored at 8 years post study randomization for overall survival (OS) data. Results: EGFR protein expression was detected in 216 of 308 (70%) of Dukes’ B2 and C primary colon carcinomas from patients and localized to the plasma membrane. EGFR expression variables (intensity, extent, weighted score) were increased in poor/undifferentiated compared to moderate/well differentiated tumors (p ≤ 0.036). Similar EGFR expression levels were found in MSI-H (n = 27) versus MSS (n = 203) colon cancers and for other clinicopathological variables. EGFR intensity was more likely moderate (2+) or strong (3+) in Dukes’ C versus B2 tumors (p = 0.088). In addition, higher EGFR intensity (2+, 3+) showed a trend toward worse disease-free survival (5 yr DFS %: 62.2 vs. 71.7; p = 0.095), but not overall survival (p = 0.14). Conclusions: EGFR overexpression is associated with increased tumor aggressiveness as indicated by poor tumor cell differentiation and reduced DFS in colon cancer patients receiving adjuvant 5-FU and levamisole. These findings indicate that EGFR may be an important therapeutic target in the adjuvant setting. [Table: see text]

10022 Background: Patients with colon cancers displaying high frequency microsatellite instability (MSI-H) are reported to have a favorable prognosis compared to microsatellite stable (MSS) tumors. However, prognostic factors underlying this observation are poorly understood. We studied apoptotic and proliferative indices and their relationship to MSI status, clinicopathological features, and patient survival rates. Methods: Archival Dukes’ stage B2 (n=83) and C (n=246) primary colon adenocarcinomas from patients enrolled in five 5-fluorouracil-based adjuvant therapy trials were analyzed for MSI using a PCR-based assay (MSI-H: ≥30% of loci with instability), and expression of hMLH1, hMSH2 and p53 proteins by immunostaining. Apoptosis was analyzed by the TUNEL assay and the proliferative index (PI: S phase + G2M) and DNA ploidy by flow cytometry. Correlations between markers and associations with overall survival (OS) censored at 8 yrs were sought. Results: MSI-H (n=58.18%) tumors were more likely proximal, diploid, high grade, p53 negative (vs. MSS/MSI-L; all p<0.0001), and from women (p=0.002). Of 58 MSH-H cases tested, 54 showed loss of hMLH1 (n=50) or hMSH2 (n=4) proteins. Median proliferative index (PI) [12.6 vs. 17.4; p=0.0002] was reduced in MSI-H versus MSS/MSI-L tumors. Lower PI was associated with diploidy (p<0.0001) and negative p53 expression (p=0.003). Apoptotic indices (AIs) were increased in MSI-H cancers (vs. MSS/MSI-L, p=0.082), as was the AI/PI ratio (p=0.0065). Interestingly, AI (p=0.02) and AI/PI (p<0.0001) were significantly increased in diploid versus nondiploid tumors, and after removal of MSI-H cases, relationships held for PI and AI/PI with ploidy. Better OS was related to MSI-H (p=0.032), loss of hMLH1 or hMSH2 (p=0.024), diploidy (p=0.0015), and lower PI (p=0.078), but not AI, AI/PI, nor p53 (adjusting for stage, grade, treatment and stratifying by study). Conclusions: MSI-H tumors are characterized by reduced proliferative indices and a higher ratio of apoptosis to proliferation, reflecting slower tumor growth rates compared to MSS/MSI-L tumors. These features may contribute to their better survival. Lower PI and increased AI/PI are also features of diploid MSS cancers. [Table: see text]

10019 Background: Colon cancers with microsatellite instability (MSI) display resistance to 5-fluorouracil (5-FU), and in vitro resistance can be reversed by restoring DNA mismatch repair proficiency. 5-FU inhibits the thymidylate synthase (TS) enzyme and TS may predict clinical outcome after 5-FU-based chemotherapy. To define molecular predictors of prognosis, we analyzed TS, p53, chromosome 17p allelic imbalance (AI), and patient survival stratified by MSI status. Methods: Primary colon carcinomas from patients enrolled in five 5-FU-based adjuvant therapy trials were analyzed for MSI and 17p AI using 11 microsatellite markers (MSI-H: ≥ 30% of the loci demonstrating instability). For 17p AI, markers included D17S261 and TP53 at or near the p53 locus. Expression of DNA mismatch repair (hMLH1, PharMingen; hMSH2; Oncogene), TS (TS106, Zymed), and p53 (D07, Novacastra) proteins were analyzed by immunohistochemistry. Correlations between markers and associations with overall survival (OS) were determined. Patients were censored at 5 years for DFS and at 8 years post study randomization for overall survival (OS) data. Results: Of 320 Dukes’ stage B2 and C cancers studied, 60 of 320 (19%) were MSI-H. TS expression variables (intensity, extent, weighted score) were similar in MSI-H and MSI stable/low frequency (MSS/MSI-L) cancers; similar results were found using DNA mismatch repair (dMMR) proteins. MSI-H tumors had lower stage (p= 0.0007), fewer metastatic lymph nodes (p= 0.004), and improved OS (vs. MSS/MSI-L tumors; p= 0.01). Loss of dMMR proteins was also associated with better OS (p= 0.006). None of the TS variables were prognostic for OS. Histologic grade (p= 0.0008) and nodal status (p= 0.0002) were associated with OS in contrast to 17p LOH or p53. Only MSI status or dMMR, histologic grade, and tumor stage were independent markers for OS. Conclusions: MSI-H tumors show earlier stage at presentation and better stage-adjusted survival rates. MSI status and TS expression were unrelated and TS was not prognostic, suggesting that TS levels cannot explain therapeutic resistance to 5-FU reported in MSI-H colon cancers. [Table: see text]

21046 Background: The Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) is a transmembrane receptor tyrosine kinase that is important for colon cancer cell growth and represents a therapeutic target. We studied EGFR expression in relation to rates of apoptosis and cell proliferation. Methods: TNM stage II and III colon carcinomas (n= 361) from patients treated in a 5-FU-based adjuvant trial were studied. EGFR expression (EGFR pharmDx™) and extent were analyzed and their relationship to rates of cell turnover, histologic grade, mismatch repair (MMR) status (defective if instability at BAT 26 locus plus loss of hMLH1, hMSH2 or hMSH6 proteins) and clinical outcome were determined. Results: EGFR plasma membrane staining was detected in 214 (59.3 %) colon carcinomas. Increased EGFR intensity (2+, 3+) was associated with a higher number of caspase-3- (p= 0.02) and Ki-67- (p< 0.001)positive tumor cells. Increased EGFR intensity (p= 0.02) and extent (p= 0.03) were associated with poor differentiation, and did not depend upon MMR status (Breslow-Day test p ≥ 0.46). Diffuse (vs. focal) EGFR extent was increased in tumors with defective MMR [22 of 32 (69%)] compared to those with intact MMR [136 of 271 (50%)] (p= 0.047). EGFR intensity was unrelated to MMR status. Neither EGFR intensity nor extent was significantly associated with patient survival. Conclusions: Stage II and III colon cancers with EGFR overexpression show adverse prognostic variables, i.e., increased rates of cell turnover and poor histologic grade, suggesting that EGFR may be an important target for adjuvant therapy. *Chi-square test for categorical data, Wilcoxin rank-sum test for continuous data [Table: see text] No significant financial relationships to disclose.