Bradbury, Penelope Ann

TPS8124 Background: Immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI)–based regimens are standard first-line therapy for metastatic non–small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) without actionable driver mutations; however, most patients experience disease progression within 12 months. A subset develop oligoprogression, defined by progression at a limited number of metastatic sites with otherwise controlled disease. Oligoprogression represents a therapeutic window in which local ablative therapy could be used to prolong disease control. In the prior phase II CURB trial, SBRT was shown to significantly prolong progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with oligoprogressive NSCLC. Methods: CCTG-BR38 is an international, multicenter, open-label, randomized phase III trial conducted through the NCI National Clinical Trials Network. Adults with stage IV NSCLC receiving first-line ICI ± chemotherapy who develop ≤5 extracranial oligoprogressive lesions are randomized 1:1 to: (1) switch to second-line standard systemic therapy or (2) SBRT (30 Gy in 3 fractions) to all oligoprogressive sites followed by continuation of the same first-line systemic therapy. Randomization is stratified by type of first-line systemic therapy (ICI alone vs ICI + chemotherapy), number of oligoprogressive lesions (1–2 vs 3–5), and ECOG performance status (0-1 vs 2). Patients with treated, stable brain metastases are eligible. Primary Endpoints: Dual primary endpoints are PFS and overall survival (OS). Secondary endpoints include safety (CTCAE v5.0), patient-reported adverse events (PRO-CTCAE), quality of life (EORTC QLQ-C30/LC13), and cost-effectiveness (EQ-5D-5L; Canadian sites). Optional blood and tissue collection for exploratory biomarker analyses are planned. Statistical Considerations: A total of 320 patients (160 per arm) will be enrolled. The sample size is based on detecting a HR of 0.7 for OS (an improvement in median OS from 10 to 14.3 months) with 80% power using a 1-sided 2% level test (the overall 1-sided 2.5% type I error will be assigned 2% to OS and 0.5% to PFS). Interim analyses for futility and efficacy are planned. Current Status: The trial was centrally activated on April 3, 2025. Accrual is ongoing across Canadian and US NCTN sites. Clinical trial information: NCT06686771 .

7510 Background: We previously demonstrated that PFS may be a candidate surrogate endpoint for OS in ES-SCLC using data from 3 randomized trials (Foster, Cancer 2011). Here, we sought to formally assess the patient- and trial-level surrogacy of PFS using data from 9 additional randomized phase II and III trials conducted by the NCI-funded cancer cooperative groups since 1986. Methods: Individual patient data from all 12 trials (3178 patients: 9 phase III and 3 phase II) were pooled. OS was the primary endpoint in all phase III trials; 3 phase III and 1 phase II trial were positive per protocol. Patient-level surrogacy (Kendall’s tau) was assessed using the Clayton copula bivariate survival model. Trial-level surrogacy was assessed via association of the log hazard ratios on OS and PFS across trials, including: weighted (by trial size) least squares regression of Cox model effects (R² WLS) and weighted (by trial size) correlation of the copula effects (R² Copula). One trial had 4 treatment arms thus 14 total two-arm comparisons were made. Results: With a median follow-up of 41.8 months in the 106 patients still alive, the median OS and PFS across trials were 9.7 months (95% CI: 9.5, 9.9) and 5.7 months (95% CI: 5.5, 5.8), respectively. There were 3120 PFS events in total (2564 disease progressions and 556 deaths without progression). The median time from progression to death was 4.1 months (95% CI: 3.9, 4.3). PFS showed modest association with OS at the patient-level (tau= 0.56) and at the trial-level (R² WLS = 0.58; R² Copula (standard error) = 0.55 (0.29)). The 95% CIs for the predicted HR for OS given observed HR on PFS under a weighted leave-one-out prediction always included the observed HR for OS; however such intervals were wide, suggesting uncertainty on the practical use of PFS as a surrogate for OS in this setting. Conclusions: PFS failed to demonstrate surrogacy for OS in ES-SCLC based on this large pooled analysis. Given that the difference in the median PFS and OS is less than 6 months, we recommend using OS as the primary endpoint in phase III trials of previously untreated ES-SCLC.