Den, Robert B.

5000 Background: It is clinically challenging to integrate genomic classifier results that report a continuous numerical risk of recurrence into treatment decisions for prostate cancer (PCa). We aimed to develop a novel clinical-genomic risk system that can readily be incorporated into treatment guidelines for localized PCa. Methods: Four multi-center cohorts (n = 6928 men; 5937 prospective samples and 991 retrospective samples with long-term follow-up) were utilized to identify and validate our clinical-genomic risk system in radical prostatectomy (RP) samples and subsequently in pre-treatment biopsy samples. All patients’ FFPE tissue underwent microarray analysis, and the expression values for 22 prespecified biomarkers that constitute Decipher were extracted. Cumulative incidence curves were constructed to estimate metastasis risk. C-indices were calculated to compare NCCN and CAPRA score to our clinical-genomic system. Results: With a median follow-up of 8 years for men in our RP cohort, the 10-year distant metastasis rates for NCCN low, favorable-intermediate, unfavorable-intermediate, and high-risk were 7.8%, 9.4%, 40.1%, and 41.4%, respectively. Our 3-tier clinical-genomic risk groups had 10-year distant metastasis rates of 3.7%, 30.7%, and 57.7%, for low, intermediate, and high-risk, which were validated in our pre-treatment biopsy cohort with 10-year rate of distant metastasis of 0%, 30.3%, and 63.2%, respectively. C-indices for the clinical-genomic system (0.84, 95%CI 0.62-0.92) were significantly improved over NCCN (0.71, 95%CI 0.59-0.84) and CAPRA (0.71, 95%CI 0.60-0.81) score. A total of 33.4% of men would be reclassified by the clinical-genomic system, and specifically 17.1%, 41.3%, and 19.4% of men in NCCN low, intermediate and high risk groups would be reclassified by our new system. Conclusions: The use of a readily available genomic classifier in combination with clinicopathologic variables can generate a simple to use 3-tier clinical-genomic risk system that is highly prognostic for distant metastasis, is more accurate than clinical risk, and can be easily incorporated into NCCN guidelines to inform treatment decisions.

Purpose Molecular characterization of prostate cancer, including The Cancer Genome Atlas, has revealed distinct subtypes with underlying genomic alterations. One of these core subtypes, SPOP (speckle-type POZ protein) mutant prostate cancer, has previously only been identifiable via DNA sequencing, which has made the impact on prognosis and routinely used risk stratification parameters unclear. Methods We have developed a novel gene expression signature, classifier (Subclass Predictor Based on Transcriptional Data), and decision tree to predict the SPOP mutant subclass from RNA gene expression data and classify common prostate cancer molecular subtypes. We then validated and further interrogated the association of prostate cancer molecular subtypes with pathologic and clinical outcomes in retrospective and prospective cohorts of 8,158 patients. Results The subclass predictor based on transcriptional data model showed high sensitivity and specificity in multiple cohorts across both RNA sequencing and microarray gene expression platforms. We predicted approximately 8% to 9% of cases to be SPOP mutant from both retrospective and prospective cohorts. We found that the SPOP mutant subclass was associated with lower frequency of positive margins, extraprostatic extension, and seminal vesicle invasion at prostatectomy; however, SPOP mutant cancers were associated with higher pretreatment serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA). The association between SPOP mutant status and higher PSA level was validated in three independent cohorts. Despite high pretreatment PSA, the SPOP mutant subtype was associated with a favorable prognosis with improved metastasis-free survival, particularly in patients with high-risk preoperative PSA levels. Conclusion Using a novel gene expression model and a decision tree algorithm to define prostate cancer molecular subclasses, we found that the SPOP mutant subclass is associated with higher preoperative PSA, less adverse pathologic features, and favorable prognosis. These findings suggest a paradigm in which the interpretation of common risk stratification parameters, particularly PSA, may be influenced by the underlying molecular subtype of prostate cancer.

Abstract Purpose: Currently, no genomic signature exists to distinguish men most likely to progress on adjuvant androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) after radical prostatectomy for high-risk prostate cancer. Here we develop and validate a gene expression signature to predict response to postoperative ADT. Experimental Design: A training set consisting of 284 radical prostatectomy patients was established after 1:1 propensity score matching metastasis between adjuvant-ADT (a-ADT)-treated and no ADT–treated groups. An ADT Response Signature (ADT-RS) was identified from neuroendocrine and AR signaling–related genes. Two independent cohorts were used to form three separate data sets for validation (set I, n = 232; set II, n = 435; set III, n = 612). The primary endpoint of the analysis was postoperative metastasis. Results: Increases in ADT-RS score were associated with a reduction in risk of metastasis only in a-ADT patients. On multivariable analysis, ADT-RS by ADT treatment interaction term remained associated with metastasis in both validation sets (set I: HR = 0.18, Pinteraction = 0.009; set II: HR = 0.25, Pinteraction = 0.019). In a matched validation set III, patients with Low ADT-RS scores had similar 10-year metastasis rates in the a-ADT and no-ADT groups (30.1% vs. 31.0%, P = 0.989). Among High ADT-RS patients, 10-year metastasis rates were significantly lower for a-ADT versus no-ADT patients (9.4% vs. 29.2%, P = 0.021). The marginal ADT-RS by ADT interaction remained significant in the matched dataset (Pinteraction = 0.035). Conclusions: Patients with High ADT-RS benefited from a-ADT. In combination with prognostic risk factors, use of ADT-RS may thus allow for identification of ADT-responsive tumors that may benefit most from early androgen blockade after radical prostatectomy. We discovered a gene signature that when present in primary prostate tumors may be useful to predict patients who may respond to early ADT after surgery. Clin Cancer Res; 24(16); 3908–16. ©2018 AACR.

24 Background: The use of radical prostatectomy (RP) as initial treatment of high-risk/locally-advanced prostate cancer is increasing but patients (pts) with adverse pathologic features such as positive surgical margins or T3 disease have up to 70% recurrence risk. These high-risk pts may be managed with adjuvant radiotherapy (ART) or early salvage radiotherapy (ESRT). The optimal timing of post-operative radiotherapy is unclear. Methods: Individual data from 1566 consecutive pts with pT2N0M0/R1 or pT3N0M0/R0-1 disease who underwent post-prostatectomy ART or ESRT (1987-2013) at 10 academic centers were pooled. Post-irradiation freedom from biochemical failure (FFBF), freedom from distant metastases (FFDM), prostate-cancer specific survival (PCSS), and overall survival (OS) were compared using Kaplan-Meier and multivariate competing-risks regression (MVA) analyses. Propensity score (PS) matching was used to account for covariates potentially associated with treatment allocation. All outcomes were measured from the date of surgery to address lead time bias. Results: After PS-matching, median follow-up after surgery was 66 vs. 73 months for the ART and ESRT groups, respectively, and baseline characteristics were well-matched. ART was associated with higher FFBF (12-yr: 69% vs. 43%; log-rank P < 0.0001), FFDM (12-yr: 95% vs. 85%; log-rank P = 0.03), PCSS (12-yr: 99% vs. 94%; log-rank P = 0.048), and OS (12-yr: 91% vs. 79%; log-rank P = 0.01). ART, lower Gleason score, lower T-stage, nodal irradiation, and postoperative androgen deprivation therapy were favorable prognostic features on MVA for BF. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the decreased risk of BF associated with ART remained significant unless more than 56% of ART pts were cured by surgery alone. This threshold is greater than the estimated 12-yr FFBF of 46% after RP alone as determined by a contemporary nomogram. Conclusions: To the best of our knowledge, this represents the largest multi-institutional study to date comparing ART to ESRT. ART was associated with reduced biochemical recurrence, distant metastases, and death compared to ESRT for high-risk pts, pending prospective validation.