Hirose, Ryutaro

For patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) listed for liver transplantation (LT), United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) enacted policy changes in 2015 to improve equity between HCC and non‐HCC patients. We evaluated the impact of these changes on regional disparities in wait‐list dropout and LT. We included patients in the UNOS database listed with Model for End‐Stage Liver Disease HCC exceptions in long‐wait regions (LWRs), mid‐wait regions (MWRs), and short‐wait regions (SWRs) before these policy changes (era 1, January 1 to December 31, 2013) and after (era 2, October 7, 2015, to October 7, 2016). Cumulative incidence of wait‐list dropout and LT were evaluated using competing risk regression. Median time to LT increased by 3.6 months (3.1 to 6.7 months) in SWRs and 1.3 months (6.9 to 8.2 months) in MWRs (P < 0.001), with a slight decrease in LWRs (13.4 to 12.9 months; P = 0.02). The 2‐year cumulative incidence of dropout increased from 9.7% to 14.8% in SWRs (P = 0.03) and from 18.9% to 22.6% in MWRs (P = 0.18) but decreased in LWRs from 26.7% to 24.8% (P = 0.31). Factors predicting wait‐list dropout included listing in era 2 (hazard ratio [HR], 1.17), in LWRs (HR, 2.56), and in MWRs (HR, 1.91). Regional differences in wait‐list outcomes decreased with policy changes, but HCC patients in SWRs remain advantaged. Recent policy change may narrow these disparities.

The current system granting liver transplant candidates with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) additional Model for End‐Stage Liver Disease (MELD) points is controversial due to geographic disparity and uncertainty regarding optimal prioritization of candidates. The current national policy assigns a MELD exception score of 22 immediately upon listing of eligible patients with HCC. The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential effects of delays in granting these exception points on transplant rates for HCC and non‐HCC patients. We used Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients data and liver simulated allocation modeling software and modeled (1) a 3‐month delay before granting a MELD exception score of 25, (2) a 6‐month delay before granting a score of 28, and (3) a 9‐month delay before granting a score of 29. Of all candidates waitlisted between January 1 and December 31, 2010 (n = 28,053), 2773 (9.9%) had an HCC MELD exception. For HCC candidates, transplant rates would be 108.7, 65.0, 44.2, and 33.6 per 100 person‐years for the current policy and for 3‐, 6‐, and 9‐month delays, respectively. Corresponding rates would be 30.1, 32.5, 33.9, and 34.8 for non‐HCC candidates. Conclusion: A delay of 6‐9 months would eliminate the geographic variability in the discrepancy between HCC and non‐HCC transplant rates under current policy and may allow for more equal access to transplant for all candidates. (Hepatology 2015;61:1643–1650)