Improving the Definition of Response Assessment: Prognostic Value of Minimal Residual Disease Combined with PET/CT at Day 100 Post Autologous Stem Cell Transplantation in Multiple Myeloma
Introduction: Response assessment at day 100 post Autologous Stem Cell Transplant (ASCT) is associated with long-term relapsed free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) in multiple myeloma (MM). The International Myeloma Working Group (IMWG) are the preferred criteria to define best response to treatment and define relapse. In the last years, response assessment has incorporated minimal residual disease (MRD) status -associated with improved RFS and OS (Munshi et al); and PET/CT combined with clinical characteristics -also associated with favorable outcomes (Zamagni et al. NCT01910987; MMY3033). The 2016 IMWG MRD criteria, combined imaging (PET/CT) plus next-generation sequencing (NGS) MRD-negative to define complete response (CR). To our knowledge, there is limited data examining the correlation and prognostic value of MRD and FDG-PET/CT at day 100 post ASCT in MM. IN this study, we aimed to determine the prognostic valued of MRD by NGS combined with PET/CT in RFS and OS status after high dose chemotherapy and ASCT in MM. Methods: Patients who underwent ASCT for MM at Mayo Clinic Arizona and had MRD and PET/CT data were included in the study. Clinical data was obtained via retrospective chart review. Cytogenetic risk (CyR) was classified using the mSMART criteria . Disease and ASCT related characteristics were compared by MRD status. MRD was measured by NGS on bone marrow aspirates using the previosly validated clonoSEQ ® Assay (Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation, Seattle, USA) tracking the IgH, IgK and IgL rearrangements at a minimum sensitivity level of 10-5. MRD was defined by residual clonal cells per million nucleated cells as: negative= 0, borderline= 1-5, positive >5. PET/CT scans were performed locally at baseline and at day 100. Comparisons were performed using the chi-square test for categorical variables, Wilcoxon rank-sum test for continuos variables, McNemar's test and Cohens's Kappa for agreement measures. Results: A total of 103 patients had matched MRD and PET/CT assessment around day 100 (+/-9 days) and were included in the analysis. Median age at diagnosis was 62 years (range, 54-66 years), 71 patients (68.9%) were men. CyR was standard risk in 49 (47.6%), high-risk in 39 (37.9%) and unknown in 15 (14.6%) patients. Most 75 (72.8%) patients were MRD positive, 16 (15.5%) were MRD negative, and 12 (11.7%) borderline. The median main MRD clone detected was 64 (range 0-91,874). 70 patients (68%) and 33 (32%) had a negative and positive PET/CT respectively. The median follow-up time was 18 months (range, 13-31 months). At the time of data analysis, 10 patients (9.7%) had relapsed and only 4 (3.9%) had died. There was a high-correlation between MRD status and PET/CT, 31 patients (93.9%) with positive PET/CT were also MRD positive (p=0.0027). There were no statistical differences between PET/CT and CyR (p=0.95). We analyzed the correlation using the FREQ procedure (McNemars's test); there was a strong association between positive PET/CT and positive MRD in 31/33 patients (93.9%, high sensitivity), and low association for negative PET/CT the negative/borderline MRD in 26/70 (37.1%, low specificity; p<0.001). The agreement measure between the PET/CT and MRD using negative/borderline combined had a kappa of 0.23 (95% CI 0.11, 0.35) indicating a fair agreement beyond chance (Figure 1). PET/CT-CT was a statistically significant predictor of worse RFS (HR 3.53, 95%CI: 1.02-12.24, p<0.0337) and OS (HR 11.38, 95%CI: 1.18-109.56, p<0.0078) (Figure 2-3, respectively). MRD was not predictive of neither RFS (HR 1.72, 95%CI: 0.36-8.14, p<0.49) or OS (p<0.16). Conclusions: In conclusion, we demonstrate that the combination of MRD by NGS (clonoSEQ ®) and PET/CT at day 100 are complementary and have a high sensitivity (true positive rate) and fair correlation of agreement but low specificity (true negative rate). PET/CT was the best most sensitive technique to prognosticate RFS and OS. We did not find prognostic correlation of MRD with RFS and OS. However, our findings might be confounded by the low risk of relapse and death, a longer follow-up may demonstrate clinically important differences. Our results add evidence that MRD plus PET/CT improve the definition of CR in MM patients post ASCT. Prospective studies are needed to elucidate the optimal timing and role of combined MRD, PET/CT with other prognostic markers of clinical outcomes. Disclosures Larsen: Takeda: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Janssen Oncology: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees. Fonseca:Juno: Consultancy; Kite: Consultancy; Aduro: Consultancy; OncoTracker: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Merck: Consultancy; Bayer: Consultancy; Janssen: Consultancy; Takeda: Consultancy; Novartis: Consultancy; Pharmacyclics: Consultancy; Sanofi: Consultancy; Oncopeptides: Consultancy; GSK: Consultancy; AbbVie: Consultancy; Adaptive Biotechnologies: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Amgen: Consultancy; BMS: Consultancy; Celgene: Consultancy.
A Phase I Dose Escalation Study of PT-112 in Patients with Relapsed or Refractory Multiple Myeloma
Background: PT-112 is a novel pyrophosphate-platinum conjugate with a multi-modal mechanism of action that induces immunogenic cell death and is not susceptible to DNA-repair drug resistance pathways. In phase I studies in solid tumors, PT-112 demonstrated safety and efficacy as single agent and in combination with PD-L1 checkpoint inhibitor avelumab, crossing a range of dose levels (DL) and tumor types, including in heavily pre-treated patients (pts) non-responsive to immunotherapy and refractory to other modalities. Non-clinical, in vivo research using advanced imaging technology demonstrated that PT-112 reached the highest concentrations in bone tissue (osteotropism). Moreover, PT-112 was highly active in the orthotopic, immune-competent Vk*MYC mouse model of multiple myeloma, including drug-resistant transplant variants. Thus, a rationale for PT-112 as an investigational candidate in multiple myeloma was established. Here, we present results of a phase I dose escalation study of PT-112 in pts with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma (RRMM). Methods: A 3+3 design was used to determine the recommended phase 2 dose (RP2D) for PT-112 (28-day cycle IV days 1, 8, 15) in pts with evaluable RRMM who had exhausted available therapies (Tx), with adequate bone marrow (abs neutrophil count ≥ 1.0 x 109/L; platelet count ≥ 50 x 109/L; and hemoglobin ≥ 8.0 g/dL) and renal function (calculated creatinine clearance ≥ 30 mL/min), and ECOG PS 0-2. Results: A total of 24 pts were treated with PT-112 monotherapy across 6 DLs: 125 mg/m2, 3 pts; 180 mg/m2, 4 pts; 250 mg/m2, 5 pts; 300 mg/m2, 4 pts; 360 mg/m2, 4 pts; 420 mg/m2, 4 pts. Patients had a median age of 72 years and were heavily pre-treated, with a median of 8 prior lines of systemic Tx: 22 (92%) pts were triple-class refractory with 19 (79%) pts penta-refractory, and 3 (13%) pts refractory to BCMA-based therapies. The most common treatment-related adverse events (TRAEs) were thrombocytopenia (58%), neutropenia (42%), diarrhea (38%), and nausea (38%). 38% of pts had ≥1 grade 3 non-hematologic TRAE, with no grade 4 non-hematologic TRAEs reported. One dose-limiting toxicity (DLT) of grade 4 neutropenia occurred at the 420 mg/m2 DL. In addition, due to frequent dose reductions and modifications at this DL, the safety committee declared 360 mg/m2 as the RP2D. Among 8 patients who received a starting dose at / above the RP2D, 2 had stable disease and 4 experienced responses to PT-112 Tx. These included a confirmed partial response (PR) achieved in a 79-year-old pt with kappa free light chain (FLC) disease treated at 360 mg/m2, whose previous Tx included combination regimens with most approved therapies (penta-refractory) and stem cell transplantation. FLC levels declined by 65% from baseline on PT-112 therapy and the pt remained progression free for 4.5 months. A 72-year-old pt treated at the 420 mg/m2 DL, reduced to 250mg/m2 every other week over the course of Tx due to grade 3-4 cytopenias, had a confirmed minor response. Prior Tx with multiple lines given over 9 years included stem cell transplantation, most approved therapies (penta-refractory), prior investigational antibody and CAR-T cell Tx (primary refractory to CAR-T). The patient was M-protein negative, kappa FLC levels declined by 32% following the first dose reduction, and the pt remained progression free and clinically stable without complaints for 4.5 months. Additionally, two transient, unconfirmed PRs occurred in patients at the 420mg/m2 DL: in a triple-class-refractory 82-year-old previously treated with 5 lines of Tx, with 70% reduction in kappa FLC during cycle 1; and in a penta-refractory 85-year-old, who experienced disappearance of M-protein during cycle 1 and Gr 4 neutropenia (DLT). Conclusions: PT-112 monotherapy was feasible and well tolerated in this heavily pre-treated, multi-refractory multiple myeloma population, and the Phase I clinical data appear to validate the developmental hypothesis, built upon activity in the Vk*MYC mouse model of multiple myeloma. Responses were confirmed in 25% of patients treated at / above the RP2D using single-agent PT-112, an encouraging result in a dose escalation trial conducted in heavily refractory patients. Activity of PT-112 in RRMM patients may be explained by its osteotropism and its unique mechanism of action compared to other drug classes used to treat this disease. Further clinical study of PT-112 in RRMM is warranted in a phase 2 clinical trial. Disclosures Ailawadhi: Celgene: Honoraria; Janssen: Research Funding; Pharmacyclics: Research Funding; Amgen: Research Funding; Medimmune: Research Funding; BMS: Research Funding; Cellectar: Research Funding; Phosplatin: Research Funding; Takeda: Honoraria. Vogl:Janssen: Consultancy; Celgene: Consultancy; MorphoSys: Consultancy; Takeda: Consultancy; Active Biotech: Consultancy, Research Funding; Oncopeptides: Consultancy; Karyopharm: Consultancy. Ames:Phosplatin Therapeutics: Current Employment, Current equity holder in private company. Yim:Phosplatin Therapeutics: Current Employment, Current equity holder in private company. Price:Phosplatin Therapeutics: Current Employment, Current equity holder in private company. Jimeno:Phosplatin Therapeutics: Current Employment, Current equity holder in private company.
Promiscuous Structural Variants Drive Myeloma Initiation and Progression
Abstract Summary: A comprehensive genomic analysis of structural variants in multiple myeloma in this issue highlights the key role of these events, involving primarily the immunoglobulin heavy chain locus in disease initiation and the MYC locus in disease progression. However, the current study reveals the large number of genomic hotspots, oncogenes, tumor suppressor genes, and recombination mechanisms that contribute to multiple myeloma heterogeneity. See related article by Rustad et al., p. 258.
Implications of MYC Rearrangements in Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma
Abstract Purpose: Rearrangements involving the MYC protooncogene are common in newly diagnosed multiple myeloma, but their prognostic significance is still unclear. The purpose of this study was to assess the impact of MYC rearrangement on clinical characteristics, treatment response, and survival in patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma. Experimental Design: This is a retrospective study including 1,342 patients seen in Mayo Clinic in Rochester, MN, from January 2006 to January 2018, who had cytogenetic testing by FISH at diagnosis, including MYC testing using the break apart FISH probe (8q24.1). Results: A rearrangement involving MYC was found in 8% of patients and was associated with elevated β2-microglobulin, ≥50% bone marrow plasma cells, IgA multiple myeloma, and the cooccurrence of trisomies. There were no differences in overall response rates between patients with and without MYC rearrangement when induction chemotherapy was proteasome inhibitor (PI)-based, immunomodulatory drug (IMiD)-based or PI + IMiD-based. Overall survival was shorter in patients with MYC rearrangement compared with patients without MYC rearrangement (5.3 vs. 8.0 years, P < 0.001). MYC rearrangement was associated with increased risk of death on multivariate analysis when high-risk cytogenetic abnormalities, ISS stage III, and ≥70 years of age were included (risk ratio: 1.5; P = 0.007). Conclusions: MYC rearrangement is associated with high disease burden and is an independent adverse prognostic factor in patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma.
Abstract 5630: Anti-BCMA bispecific tool therapy against Vk*MYC multiple myeloma is enhanced by IMiDs
Abstract BCMA is an ideal target antigen for myeloma immunotherapy as it is specifically expressed by plasma cells and T cell-engaging, BCMA-bispecific antibodies show potent tumor killing activity in human multiple myeloma (MM). However, a lack of longevity, potential immunotoxicity, and efficacy in high tumor burden situations are limitations to effective clinical utility. In order to optimize this therapeutic approach, we performed in vitro and in vivo assessments of a BCMA bispecific tool using the Vk*MYC immunocompetent mouse model of MM. Analysis at gene and protein level revealed variable levels of BCMA in Vk*MYC tumors, mirroring the heterogeneity of BCMA observed in human MM. In addition, we found that treatment with a gamma secretase inhibitor enhanced BCMA expression in Vk*MYC MM cells, similar to observations from patients. Having found the Vk*MYC model as a suitable model for BCMA targeted therapy, we treated Vk*MYC de novo and transplant mice with the BCMA targeting tool and established that the treatment was safe and efficacious (significant reduction in M-spike levels compared to control antibody). However, the response was transient and modest activity was noted in high tumor burden setting, likely because of poor T cell infiltration. Therefore, we hypothesized that combining BCMA therapy with agents capable of debulking the tumors would prolong and deepen therapeutic benefits and thus selected IMiDs for their anti-tumor and immunomodulatory properties. Because mice are resistant to therapy with IMiDs, we generated a humanized transgenic mouse strain with robust human CRBN expression and crossed it with the Vk*MYC mouse to obtain a novel immunocompetent, IMiD-responsive model, Vk*MYChCRBN. When combined with the IMiD pomalidomide (POM), bispecific-directed T cell control of MM was enhanced relative to bispecific alone. M-spike levels in two different transplantable models were reduced regardless of tumor burden. In addition, POM increased T cell effector activation, proliferation, and cytokine production. We also monitored transient weight loss unique to the bispecific-POM combination. Following this promising combinatorial result in vivo, we studied the relative roles of POM on target vs. effector cells by an in vitro killing assay using Vk*MYC tumor and splenocytes with or without expression of CRBN. Separately from the direct tumoricidal effects of POM on the tumor, we observed T cell-intrinsic effects of POM on the enhancement of BCMA-bispecific directed tumor lysis that correlated with T cell activation and proliferation. In summary, POM potentiated BCMA-CD3 bispecific directed T cell cytolysis of MM in the Vk*MYChCRBN animal model by enhancing effector cell activation, proliferation, cytokine production and directly reducing tumor burden. These results support ongoing preclinical studies of the benefits of combining standard of care therapy with potent T cell immunotherapy for MM. Citation Format: Erin W. Meermeier, Meaghen E. Sharik, Seth J. Welsh, Caleb K. Stein, Victoria M. Garbitt, Sochilt Brown, Kennedi T. Todd, Marco Bergsagel, P. Leif Bergsagel, Marta Chesi. Anti-BCMA bispecific tool therapy against Vk*MYC multiple myeloma is enhanced by IMiDs [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research 2020; 2020 Apr 27-28 and Jun 22-24. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2020;80(16 Suppl):Abstract nr 5630.
Abstract 5622: scRNA-seq reveals restructuring of the immune microenvironment of multiple myeloma following treatment with an IAP antagonist
Abstract Previously, the IAP antagonist LCL161 was shown to have robust anti-myeloma activity in a transgenic mouse model where an acute inflammatory response accompanied a reduction in tumor burden. In order to fully examine alterations to the immune microenvironment, murine splenocytes from twenty mice transplanted with Vk12598 myeloma and administered single-agent treatment regimens of LCL161, cyclophosphamide, or bortezomib were harvested after 24 hours and subjected to single cell RNA-seq sequencing. After initial removal of erythrocytic and mitochondrial expressing cells, count matrices of over 50,000 total cells span twenty murine whole spleen samples. In an examination of the myeloid component, we identified 13 clusters of immune cells with unique compositions across samples due to differing treatment regimens and initial tumor burden. While minimally present in all seven non-transplanted mice, macrophages with elevated expression of complement activation system genes (C1q) were the most abundant myeloid cell population in each of our untreated, Vk12598 transplanted mice. Alternatively, populations of cDC2, pDC, moDC, and monocytes lacking expression of MHC class II markers were fixtures for healthy controls while markedly less abundant in tumor-bearing mice. Tumor burdens in three samples subjected to LCL161 therapy were significantly reduced 24-hours post treatment and accompanied by an expansion of late-stage neutrophils and migratory DCs with expression features mirroring those of DCs from mesenteric lymph nodes. This composition of immune cells was distinct from all other sample including those treated with cyclophosphamide or bortezomib. In addition, relative proportions of B, T, and NK cells were nearly fully reconstituted, matching levels observed in healthy controls, in two of these samples. In a direct functional assessment, expression levels of Fscn1 and Ccr7 (key over-expressed genes in these migratory DCs) markedly increased following treatment of bone marrow derived DCs with LCL161. Overall, the transcriptional profile of these migratory DCs indicates their pivotal role in maturation of DCs (Fscn1, Tmem123) as well as the recruitment of T and NKT cells (Cxcl16, Ccr7) and increase in antigen presentation (Cd63)–all of which may serve to ‘warm' tumors, increasing T cell infiltration necessary for immunotherapy approaches. With the increased resolution of scRNA-seq, we observe unique alterations in the composition of the immune microenvironment of MM induced by treatment with LCL161 that further detail its unique mechanism of anti-MM activity. Citation Format: Caleb K. Stein, Erin Meermeier, Seth Welsh, Victoria Garbitt, Meaghen Sharik, P. Leif Bergsagel, Nicholas Banovich, Jonathan Keats, Marta Chesi. scRNA-seq reveals restructuring of the immune microenvironment of multiple myeloma following treatment with an IAP antagonist [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research 2020; 2020 Apr 27-28 and Jun 22-24. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2020;80(16 Suppl):Abstract nr 5622.
Clinical characteristics and treatment outcomes of newly diagnosed multiple myeloma with chromosome 1q abnormalities
Abstract A gain in chromosome 1q (+1q) is among the most common cytogenetic abnormalities in multiple myeloma (MM). It is unclear whether +1q is independently associated with decreased overall survival (OS). The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of +1q on clinical characteristics, treatment response, and survival outcomes. We included 1376 Mayo Clinic patients diagnosed with MM from 2005 to 2018 who underwent fluorescence in situ hybridization testing at diagnosis with a panel including the +1q probe. A gain in 1q was found in 391 patients (28%) and was associated with anemia, hypercalcemia, high tumor burden, International Staging System (ISS) stage 3, high-risk (HR) translocations, and chromosome 13 abnormalities. There was no difference in overall response or deeper responses to proteasome inhibitor (PI)–, immunomodulatory drug (iMiD)–, or PI plus IMiD–based induction. Time to next treatment was shorter in patients with +1q compared with those without +1q (19.9 vs 27.7 months; P < .001). On univariate analysis, +1q was associated with increased risk of death (risk ratio [RR], 1.9; P < .001), and decreased OS was seen in all treatment groups. +1q was independently associated with decreased OS on multivariate analysis when other HR cytogenetic abnormalities, ISS stage 3, and age ≥70 years were included (RR, 1.5; P < .001). Gain of >1 copy of 1q was not associated with worse OS compared with gain of 1 copy (4.9 vs 4.3 years; P = .21). +1q was associated with high tumor burden, advanced disease stage, and HR translocations. It is independently associated with decreased OS, even in the setting of novel therapy and transplant.
Expression of Nras
Q61R and MYC transgene in germinal center B cells induces a highly malignant multiple myeloma in mice
Abstract NRAS Q61 mutations are prevalent in advanced/relapsed multiple myeloma (MM) and correlate with poor patient outcomes. Thus, we generated a novel MM model by conditionally activating expression of endogenous NrasQ61R and an MYC transgene in germinal center (GC) B cells (VQ mice). VQ mice developed a highly malignant MM characterized by a high proliferation index, hyperactivation of extracellular signal-regulated kinase and AKT signaling, impaired hematopoiesis, widespread extramedullary disease, bone lesions, kidney abnormalities, preserved programmed cell death protein 1 and T-cell immunoreceptor with immunoglobulin and immunoreceptor tyrosine-based inhibition motif domain immune-checkpoint pathways, and expression of human high-risk MM gene signatures. VQ MM mice recapitulate most of the biological and clinical features of human advanced/high-risk MM. These MM phenotypes are serially transplantable in syngeneic recipients. Two MM cell lines were also derived to facilitate future genetic manipulations. Combination therapies based on MEK inhibition significantly prolonged the survival of VQ mice with advanced-stage MM. Our study provides a strong rationale to develop MEK inhibition–based therapies for treating advanced/relapsed MM.
Cytogenetic abnormalities in MM: Association with disease characteristics and treatment response.
e20520 Background: Cytogenetic abnormalities detected by FISH are found in the majority of multiple myeloma (MM) patients. Although their prognostic value has been studied extensively, less is known about their association with disease characteristics and treatment response. Methods: To address these questions, we designed a retrospective study including 2031 Mayo Clinic patients diagnosed with MM from 2004 to 2018. We compared baseline characteristics and treatment outcomes between primary cytogenetic groups: t(11;14), t(4;14), t(14;16), (14;20), t(6;14), unknown IgH translocation/del and trisomy (without IgH translocation). These included 373, 177, 78, 20, 18, 228 and 791 patients respectively. Kruskal-Wallis and Fisher’s exact tests were used for categorical and continuous variables respectively. Time to next treatment (TTNT) was estimated using Kaplan-Meier method and compared using Log-Rank test. Results: t(4;14), t(14;16), t(6;14) and t(14;20) groups were associated with hemoglobin < 10 g/dL, beta2microglobulin > 5.5 µg/ml, ISS stage 3 and ≥50% bone marrow plasma cells. The latter 3 groups were also associated with renal dysfunction (Cr ≥2 mg/dL) and higher urinary monoclonal protein. t(4;14) was associated with IgA isotype, serum monoclonal protein ≥1g/dL and plasma cell labeling index ≥1%. Light chain myeloma was more prevalent in patients with t(11;14). Overall response rate (ORR) to proteasome inhibitor (PI) induction was higher for those with IgH translocations (any) compared to trisomies (85% vs 77% P = 0.02), while ORR was higher for those with trisomies with immunomodulatory drug (IMiD) induction (90% vs 78% P < 0.01). The rate of ≥ very good partial response was higher for patients with high risk IgH translocations [t(4;14), t(14;16) or t(14;20)] compared to standard risk with PI-IMiD combination treatment (88% vs 65% P < 0.01). Otherwise, response rates did not differ between these 2 groups. TTNT was longer in patients with trisomies compared to those with IgH translocation with IMiD or PI-IMiD treatments (32.2 vs 19 and 44 vs 27.4 months, respectively P < 0.01). For all cytogenetic groups, better treatment responses and longer TTNT were seen with PI-IMiD combinations compared to other treatments. Conclusions: t(4;14), t(14;16), t(6;14), and t(14;20) are associated with high risk disease characteristics. Patients with IgH translocations may have better response to PI induction compared to those with trisomies, while those with trisomies may have better response to IMiD treatment, with best outcomes for both seen with PI-IMiD combinations.
Genomic Profiling of Smoldering Multiple Myeloma Identifies Patients at a High Risk of Disease Progression
PURPOSE Smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM) is a precursor condition of multiple myeloma (MM) with a 10% annual risk of progression. Various prognostic models exist for risk stratification; however, those are based on solely clinical metrics. The discovery of genomic alterations that underlie disease progression to MM could improve current risk models. METHODS We used next-generation sequencing to study 214 patients with SMM. We performed whole-exome sequencing on 166 tumors, including 5 with serial samples, and deep targeted sequencing on 48 tumors. RESULTS We observed that most of the genetic alterations necessary for progression have already been acquired by the diagnosis of SMM. Particularly, we found that alterations of the mitogen-activated protein kinase pathway ( KRAS and NRAS single nucleotide variants [SNVs]), the DNA repair pathway (deletion 17p, TP53, and ATM SNVs), and MYC (translocations or copy number variations) were all independent risk factors of progression after accounting for clinical risk staging. We validated these findings in an external SMM cohort by showing that patients who have any of these three features have a higher risk of progressing to MM. Moreover, APOBEC associated mutations were enriched in patients who progressed and were associated with a shorter time to progression in our cohort. CONCLUSION SMM is a genetically mature entity whereby most driver genetic alterations have already occurred, which suggests the existence of a right-skewed model of genetic evolution from monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance to MM. We identified and externally validated genomic predictors of progression that could distinguish patients at high risk of progression to MM and, thus, improve on the precision of current clinical models.