Blecker, Saul

Objective To identify primary care structures and processes that have the highest and lowest impact on chronic disease management and screening and prevention outcomes as well as to assess the feasibility of implementing these structures and processes into practice. Design A two-round Delphi study was conducted to establish consensus on the impact and feasibility of 258 primary care structures and processes. Participants 29 primary care providers, health system leaders and health services researchers in the USA. Outcomes Primary outcomes were (1) consensus on the impact of each structure and process on chronic disease management and screening and prevention outcomes, separately and (2) consensus on feasibility of implementation by primary care practices. Results Consensus on high impact and feasibility of implementation was reached on four items for chronic disease management: ‘Providers use motivational interviewing to help patients set goals’, ‘Practice has designated staff to manage patient panel’, ‘Practice has onsite providers or staff that speak the most dominant, non-English language spoken by patients’ and ‘Practice includes mental health providers and/or behavioural health specialists in care team’ and seven items for screening and prevention: ‘Practice utilizes standing protocols and orders’, ‘Practice generates reports to alert clinicians to missed targets and to identify gaps in care, such as overdue visits, needed vaccinations, screenings or other preventive services’, ‘Practice has designated staff to manage patient panel’, ‘Practice sets performance goals and uses benchmarking to track quality of care’, ‘Practice uses performance feedback to identify practice-specific areas of improvement’, ‘Practice builds quality improvement activities into practice operations’ and ‘Pre-visit planning data are reviewed during daily huddles’. Only ‘Practice has designated staff to manage patient panel’ appeared on both lists. Conclusion Findings suggest that practices need to focus on implementing mostly distinct, rather than common, structures and processes to optimise chronic disease and preventive care.

Abstract Background Endocrine ECHO (Extension for Community Healthcare Outcomes) is a scalable model of healthcare education that extends enhanced training through ongoing telementoring of community primary care providers (PCPs) by a team of specialists. The purpose of this study was to assess whether patients of providers engaged in the Endocrine ECHO program (Endo ECHO) exhibited improvements in lifestyle, and self-management behaviors. Methods A sample of 533 adult Endo ECHO patients diagnosed with type 1 or complex type 2 diabetes (insulin dependent and/or with an HbA1c of 9% or higher) took a comprehensive survey during Endo ECHO study enrollment (pre-test) and again after at least one year past their first exposure to the intervention (post-test). We assessed pre/post changes in patient-reported outcomes on well-being, lifestyle, and self-management behaviors using McNemar’s tests for paired data. Results A broad array of patients’ self-reported well-being, lifestyle, and self-management behaviors improved over the course of their engagement in the Endo ECHO program. Despite relatively low average health literacy and numeracy, patients’ confidence and self-efficacy to manage their disease also improved significantly from pre-test to post-test. Discussion Endo ECHO may be an effective means of enhancing primary care for individuals with type 1 and complex type 2 diabetes and improving patient capacity to perform the extensive array of lifestyle and self-care behaviors necessary to effectively manage their diabetes outside of the clinical setting. Conclusions The ECHO model of care has been shown to improve provider and satisfaction, quality of care, and in some cases clinical outcomes across various program areas. This study indicates that endocrinology-focused ECHO programs may also lead to behavior changes among patients in between visits to their provider. Further research should examine the impact of the ECHO model on patient behavior.

Background: Some patients with heart failure (HF) will go on to develop advanced HF, characterized by severe HF symptoms despite attempts to optimize medical therapy. The goals of this study were to examine the risk of developing advanced HF in patients with newly diagnosed HF, identify risk factors for developing advanced HF, and evaluate the impact of advanced HF on outcomes. Methods: This was a population-based, retrospective cohort study of Olmsted County, Minnesota, residents with a new clinical diagnosis of HF between 2007 and 2017. Risk factors for the development of advanced HF (2018 European Society of Cardiology criteria) were examined using cause-specific Cox proportional hazard regression models. The associations of development of advanced HF with risks of hospitalization and mortality were examined using the Andersen-Gill and Cox models, respectively. Results: There were 4597 residents with incident HF from 2007 to 2017. The cumulative incidence of advanced HF was 11.5% (95% CI, 10.5%–12.5%) at 6 years after incident HF diagnosis overall and was 14.4% (95% CI, 12.3%–16.9%), 11.4% (95% CI, 8.9%–14.6%), and 11.7% (95% CI, 10.3%–13.2%) in patients with incident HF with reduced, mildly reduced, and preserved ejection fraction, respectively. Key demographics, comorbidities, and echocardiographic characteristics were independently associated with the development of advanced HF. Development of advanced HF was associated with increased risks of all-cause hospitalization (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.0 [95% CI, 2.7–3.4]; P <0.001), HF hospitalization (hazard ratio, 10.2 [95% CI, 8.7–12.1]), all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 5.0 [95% CI, 4.5–5.6]; P <0.001), and cardiovascular mortality (hazard ratio, 7.8 [95% CI, 6.7–9.1]). Conclusions: In this population-based study, development of advanced HF was common and was associated with markedly increased morbidity and mortality.

Introduction: Some patients with heart failure (HF) will go on to develop advanced HF, characterized by severe HF symptoms despite attempts to optimize medical therapy. Our understanding of advanced HF at a population level remains limited. The goals of this study were to determine the risk of developing advanced HF in patients with newly diagnosed HF, identify risk factors for developing advanced HF, and evaluate the impact of advanced HF on outcomes. Methods: This was a population-based, retrospective cohort study of Olmsted County, Minnesota residents with a new clinical diagnosis of HF between 2007-2017. The primary outcome was development of advanced HF, defined using the 2018 European Society of Cardiology Criteria. Risk factors for development of advanced HF from the time of incident HF diagnosis were examined using cause-specific Cox proportional hazard regression models. The associations of development of advanced HF with risks of hospitalization and mortality were examined using Andersen-Gill and Cox models, respectively, with advanced HF treated as a time dependent covariate. Results: There were 4597 residents with incident HF from 2007 to 2017. The cumulative incidence of advanced HF was 6.0%, 9.1%, and 11.5% at 2, 4, and 6 years after incident HF diagnosis. Characteristics independently associated with development of advanced HF included older age, male sex, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, peripheral vascular disease, lower serum sodium, worse right ventricular function, left atrial enlargement, higher estimated filling pressures, and higher right ventricular systolic pressure (p<0.05 for each). Development of advanced HF was associated with increased risks of all-cause hospitalization (adjusted HR 3.00; 95% CI 2.65-3.41, p<0.001), HF hospitalization (HR 10.24, 95% CI 8.67-12.10), all-cause mortality (HR 5.00, 95% CI 4.46-5.59, p<0.001), and cardiovascular mortality (HR 7.84, 95% CI 6.74-9.12). Conclusions: In this population-based study, clinical, laboratory and echocardiographic characteristics at the time of incident HF diagnosis were associated with future risk of advanced HF. Development of advanced HF was associated with markedly increased morbidity and mortality.

Introduction: Guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT) dramatically improves outcomes in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). Our goal was to examine GDMT use in community patients with newly diagnosed HFrEF. Methods: We performed a population-based, retrospective cohort study of all Olmsted County, Minnesota residents with newly diagnosed HFrEF (EF≤40%) 2007-2017. We excluded patients with contraindications to medication initiation (allergy, intolerance, heart rate<50 for beta blockers, SBP <80mm Hg for beta blockers, ACEi/ARB/ARNI; high creatinine (>3 mg/dL ACEi/ARB/ARNI, >2.5 men or >2.0 mg/dL women for mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists, MRAs) or hyperkalemia (potassium >5 meQ/L for ACEi/ARB/ARNI, MRA). We examined use and peak dose achieved for beta blockers, HF beta blockers (metoprolol succinate, carvedilol, bisoprolol), ACEi/ARB/ARNI, and MRA in the first year after HFrEF diagnosis. We used logistic regression to evaluate predictors of GDMT use. Results: From 2007-2017, 1160 patients were diagnosed with HFrEF (mean age 69.7 years, 65.6% men). Most eligible patients received beta blockers (92.1%) and ACEi/ARB/ARNI (86.5%) in the first year after HFrEF. However, only 63.6% of patients were treated with a HF beta blocker, and most did not receive MRAs (82.6%). The percentage of treated patients reaching medication target doses was 20.5% for HF beta blockers, 25.3% for ACEi/ARB/ARNI, and 11.2% for MRA. Compared to patients not seen in an HF clinic, patients seen in an HF clinic (n=380, 32.8%) were at greater odds of receiving beta blockers (OR 3.85, 95% CI 1.79-8.33); HF beta blockers (OR 3.85, 95% CI 2.63-5.26); ACEi/ARB/ARNIs (OR 3.85, 95% CI 2.17-6.67); and MRAs (OR 3.03, 95% CI 2.08-4.35). Other independent predictors of GDMT use included younger age (beta blockers, ACEi/ARB/ARNI), male gender (MRAs), higher SBP (beta blockers, ACEi/ARB/ARNI), lower EF (HF beta blockers), higher BMI (MRAs), and diabetes (ACEi/ARB/ARNI, p<0.05 for each). Conclusions: In this population-based study, most patients with newly diagnosed HFrEF received beta blockers and ACEi/ARB/ARNIs, but goal doses were usually not achieved. GDMT use was much higher in patients referred to an HF clinic.

Introduction: Advanced or “Stage D” heart failure (Adv HF) patients are at high risk of poor outcomes. However, recognition of Adv HF is limited as diagnostic criteria are complex. Administrative algorithms to identify Adv HF could enable better understanding of who has advanced HF and lead to enhanced therapeutics development, dissemination, and outcomes. Methods: In a population-based cohort of all Olmsted County, Minnesota residents with ≥1 HF billing code 2007-2017 (n=9881), we identified all patients with Adv HF (n=753) by applying the gold standard European Society of Cardiology Adv HF criteria via manual medical review by a HF cardiologist. The Adv HF index date was the date the patient first met all ESC criteria. We then developed candidate algorithms to identify Adv HF using only administrative data (billing codes and HF prescriptions or comorbidities known to affect HF outcomes), applied them to the entire HF cohort and assessed their ability to identify patients with Adv HF on or after their Adv HF index date. Results: A single hospitalization (Hsp) for HF or ventricular arrhythmias (VA, 2007-2017) identified all patients with Adv HF (sensitivity 100%), but the PPV was low (36.4%). Requiring more Hsp, other signs of Adv HF such as hyponatremia, acute kidney injury, hypotension or high-dose diuretic use decreased the sensitivity but improved specificity and PPV. As Adv HF was relatively uncommon, negative predictive values (NPV) were high regardless of algorithm characteristics. Conclusions: Algorithms using administrative data can identify patients with Adv HF with clinically useful accuracy.

Objective: To investigate the association between low forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV 1 ) and incident atrial fibrillation (AF) in a population-based cohort. Background: Impaired FEV 1 , a complex measure indicating genetic, developmental, obstructive and restrictive airway disease, musculoskeletal function, and motivation, has been inconsistently associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease mortality. Also, extant reports do not provide separate estimates for African Americans, who surprisingly have lower AF incidence than Caucasians. Methods: We examined 15,282 middle-aged African Americans (26%) and Caucasians, men (45%) and women from four U.S. communities enrolled in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) cohort study. Lung volumes by standardized spirometry and information on covariates were collected on these participants at the baseline visit (1987-1989). Prevalent AF cases were excluded by 12-lead ECG at baseline. Incident AF was defined as the first event identified from the following: ICD codes for AF from hospital discharge records or death certificates, or ECGs performed during three triennial follow-up visits. Results: Over an average follow-up of 17.5 years, a total of 1,733 (11%) participants developed new-onset AF. The rate of incident AF increased monotonically and inversely by tertiles of FEV 1 in each of the 4 gender-race strata. The unadjusted average incidence rates of AF per 100 person years of follow up by tertiles of FEV 1 (from lowest to highest tertile) were 13.6, 8.3, and 5.7 for white men; 8.7, 4.5, and 3.4 for white women; 8.2, 5.5, and 3.8 for black men; 6.9, 4.1, and 2.4 for black women. After multivariable adjustment for traditional cardiovascular disease risk factors and height, hazard ratios (95% CI) of AF comparing the lowest with the highest tertile of FEV 1 were 1.44 (1.16,1.78) among white men, 1.45 (1.12, 1.87) among white women, 1.81 (1.09, 3.02) among black men, and 1.84(1.20, 2.82) among black women. The trend estimate for per 1 Standard-Deviation lower FEV 1 for the corresponding race and gender groups were 1.21 (1.12, 1.32), 1.38 (1.25, 1.54), 1.45 (1.18, 1.76), and 1.35 (1.12, 1.63), respectively. The above associations were observed across all smoking status categories (current, former, and never). The association between low lung function and incidence of AF was similarly unchanged after exclusion of participants with heart failure (n = 689) or CHD (n = 558) at baseline. The hazard of AF was about 50% higher among those with FEV1/FVC ratio below 0.7. Conclusions: In this large population-based cohort study with a long term follow-up, reduced FEV 1 is strongly associated with a higher AF risk, independent of race, gender, smoking, and several other CVD risk factors. These findings suggest the need for research on mechanisms underlying the observed association to seek broader opportunities for prevention of AF.

Background— Reduced low forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV 1 ) is reportedly associated with an increased risk of atrial fibrillation (AF). Extant reports do not provide separate estimates for never smokers or for blacks, who incongruously have lower AF incidence than whites. Methods and Results— We examined 15 004 middle-aged blacks and whites enrolled in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) cohort study. Standardized spirometry data were collected at the baseline examination. Incident AF was identified from the first among the following: International Classification of Diseases codes for AF on hospital discharge records or death certificates or 12-lead ECGs performed during 3 triennial follow-up visits. Over an average follow-up of 17.5 years, a total of 1691 participants (11%) developed new-onset AF. The rate of incident AF was inversely associated with FEV 1 in each of the 4 race and sex groups. After multivariable adjustment for traditional cardiovascular disease risk factors and height, hazard ratios of AF comparing the lowest with the highest quartile of FEV 1 were 1.37 (95% confidence interval, 1.02–1.83) for white women, 1.49 (95% confidence interval, 1.16–1.91) for white men, 1.63 (95% confidence interval, 1.00–2.66) for black women, and 2.36 (95% confidence interval, 1.30–4.29) for black men. The above associations were observed across all smoking status categories. Moderate/severe airflow obstruction (FEV 1 /forced vital capacity <0.70 and FEV 1 < 80% of predicted value) was also associated with higher AF incidence. Conclusions— In this large population-based study with a long-term follow-up, reduced FEV 1 and obstructive respiratory disease were associated with a higher AF incidence after adjustment for measured confounders.