Betts, Brian Christopher

Abstract Graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) is a major cause of nonrelapse mortality (NRM) after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation. Algorithms containing either the gastrointestinal (GI) GVHD biomarker amphiregulin (AREG) or a combination of 2 GI GVHD biomarkers (suppressor of tumorigenicity-2 [ST2] + regenerating family member 3 alpha [REG3α]) when measured at GVHD diagnosis are validated predictors of NRM risk but have never been assessed in the same patients using identical statistical methods. We measured the serum concentrations of ST2, REG3α, and AREG by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay at the time of GVHD diagnosis in 715 patients divided by the date of transplantation into training (2004-2015) and validation (2015-2017) cohorts. The training cohort (n = 341) was used to develop algorithms for predicting the probability of 12-month NRM that contained all possible combinations of 1 to 3 biomarkers and a threshold corresponding to the concordance probability was used to stratify patients for the risk of NRM. Algorithms were compared with each other based on several metrics, including the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve, proportion of patients correctly classified, sensitivity, and specificity using only the validation cohort (n = 374). All algorithms were strong discriminators of 12-month NRM, whether or not patients were systemically treated (n = 321). An algorithm containing only ST2 + REG3α had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (0.757), correctly classified the most patients (75%), and more accurately risk-stratified those who developed Minnesota standard-risk GVHD and for patients who received posttransplant cyclophosphamide-based prophylaxis. An algorithm containing only AREG more accurately risk-stratified patients with Minnesota high-risk GVHD. Combining ST2, REG3α, and AREG into a single algorithm did not improve performance.

Abstract Standard initial therapy of chronic graft vs. host disease (cGVHD) with glucocorticoids results in suboptimal response. Safety and feasibility of therapy with ofatumumab (1000 mg IV on days 0 and 14) and prednisone (1 mg/kg/day) was previously established in our phase I trial (n = 12). We now report the mature results of the phase II expansion of the trial (n = 38). The overall NIH severity of cGVHD was moderate (63%) or severe (37%) with 74% of all patients affected by the overlap subtype of cGVHD and 82% by prior acute cGVHD. The observed 6 month clinician-reported and 2014 NIH-defined overall response rates (ORR = complete + partial response [CR/PR]) of 62.5% (1-sided lower 90% confidence interval=51.5%) were not superior to pre-specified historic benchmark of 60%. Post-hoc comparison of 6 month NIH response suggested benefit compared to more contemporaneous NIH-based benchmark of 48.6% with frontline sirolimus/prednisone (CTN 0801 trial). Baseline cGVHD features (organ involvement, severity, initial immune suppression agents) were not significantly associated with 6-month ORR. The median time to initiation of second-line therapy was 5.4 months (range 0.9-15.1 months). Failure-free survival (FFS) was 64.2% (95% CI 46.5-77.4%) at 6 months and 53.1% (95% CI 35.8-67.7%) at 12 months, whereas FFS with CR/PR at 12 months of 33.5% exceeded a benchmark of 15% in post-hoc analysis, and was associated with greater success in steroid discontinuation by 24 months (odds ratio 8 (95% CI 1.21-52.7). This single-arm phase II trial demonstrated acceptable safety and potential efficacy of the upfront use of ofatumumab in combination with prednisone in cGVHD. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT01680965.