Qayed, Muna

ACCESS is a prospective, multicenter phase II trial evaluating peripheral blood stem cell (PBSC) transplantation using 4-7/8 HLA-mismatched unrelated donors (MMUD) with post-transplant cyclophosphamide (PTCy), tacrolimus, and mycophenolate. Adults undergoing first HCT with myeloablative (MAC) or reduced-intensity/nonmyeloablative (RIC/NMA) conditioning were enrolled, with donors aged 18-35 years and matched at 4/8-7/8 HLA loci by high-resolution typing. This expanded analysis includes all enrolled adult PBSC recipients, including the protocol-specified RIC/NMA cohort expansion, to improve precision of outcome estimates and provide descriptive analyses by HLA match level. Among 268 adults, 183 received 7/8 and 85 received <7/8 MMUD grafts; 82.4% of the <7/8 cohort received 6/8 grafts. Median follow-up among survivors was 11.9 months. At 1-year, overall survival was 78.6% (95% CI, 71.9-83.9) in the 7/8 cohort and 85.6% (95% CI, 76.0-91.5) in the <7/8 cohort. One-year relapse, non-relapse mortality, and GVHD-free relapse-free survival were 17.1%, 13.7%, and 51.1% versus 22.8%, 8.4%, and 54.6%, respectively. The cumulative incidence of grade II-IV and grade III-IV acute GVHD by day 100 was 36.6% and 7.7% in the 7/8 cohort versus 28.3% and 5.9% in the <7/8 cohort. Moderate-to-severe chronic GVHD at 1 year was 11.3% versus 7.7%, respectively. Among adult ACCESS recipients treated on a uniform young-donor PBSC/PTCy platform, short-term outcomes with predominantly 6/8 MMUD transplantation were encouraging. Because donor match level was not prospectively assigned and between-group comparisons were exploratory, these findings are descriptive and should not be interpreted as establishing equivalence with 7/8 MMUD transplantation. (Registered as NCT04904588 at CT.gov)

ABSTRACT Approximately 30% of patients with acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) develop steroid-refractory disease and have very poor outcomes. Ruxolitinib has become the standard of care for steroid-refractory acute GVHD, but it is unclear which patients derive benefit. The MAGIC Composite Score (MCS), an algorithm that combines clinical symptoms and biomarkers, has been validated to predict outcomes at the start of primary GVHD treatment. Here, we evaluated its performance at the initiation of second-line treatment in 278 patients. MCS stratified patients into three risk groups (MCS1-3), with the majority (88%) classified as intermediate or high risk. Increasing MCS score was associated with progressively higher 1-year non-relapse mortality (NRM) rates (16%, 41%, and 73%; p<0.001), lower 1-year survival (77%, 56%, and 24%; p<0.001), and lower complete response (CR) rates at day 28 (47%, 38%, and 20%, respectively; p<0.01). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for 1-year NRM was significantly higher with MCS compared to clinical symptoms alone (0.70 vs. 0.63; p=0.023). Among patients treated with ruxolitinib, higher MCS similarly predicted higher NRM and lower survival and CR rates. Patients classified as MCS2/3 had poor outcomes despite ruxolitinib, underscoring the need for novel therapies in this patient population. In conclusion the MCS is an accurate predictor of outcomes for patients who require second-line treatment and may be of use as an eligibility criterion for future clinical trials in this high-risk population. Key Points MAGIC Composite Scores that integrate clinical symptoms and biomarker scores predict outcomes of second-line therapy for acute GVHD more accurately than clinical symptoms alone. MCS identifies patients with high NRM despite treatment with ruxolitinib.

Abstract Background Acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) is a major cause of non-relapse mortality (NRM) after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT). High-dose steroids are standard first-line therapy for grade II–IV acute GVHD, whereas systemic treatment (tx) is generally not recommended for grade I. However, in practice many patients (pts) with grade I GVHD receive systemic steroids. A prior GITMO randomized trial (n=173) of grade I GVHD to either systemic steroid tx or “watch and wait” found that preemptive steroid tx reduced progression to grade II but not grade III/IV GVHD, increased serious infections, and resulted in similar chronic GVHD, NRM and survival (Bacigalupo, Haematologica 2017). In this study we analyzed real world evidence for early systemic steroid use and the potential impact of serum biomarkers in grade I GVHD. Methods We analyzed clinical data and serum samples from pts with grade I acute GVHD at 24 Mount Sinai Acute GVHD International Consortium (MAGIC) centers between 2014 and 2022 who were treated according to physician discretion. Pts were divided into a preemptive steroid tx group or a watch-and-wait group (systemic steroids administered only if progression to grade II–IV GVHD). Preemptive steroid use was treated as a time-dependent covariate and a frailty proportional hazards model with random effects was used to adjust for center effects to account for possible heterogeneity in clinical practices across transplant centers. Serum samples collected at the diagnosis of grade I GVHD were analyzed for ST2 and REG3α to calculate validated Ann Arbor (AA) scores (1, 2, 3). Results Grade I GVHD was diagnosed in 1143 pts; 591 (52%) received preemptive tx and 552 (48%) were treated by a watch-and-wait strategy. In the preemptive tx group, steroids were initiated at a median of 0 days and within 7 days for &gt;90%. The median initial dose of steroids was 1 mg/kg of prednisone or its equivalent. In the watch and wait group, only 184 pts (33%) required systemic steroids for progression to grade II-IV GVHD at a median of 14 days from grade I diagnosis. Preemptive steroid tx reduced the risk of grade II–IV acute GVHD (HR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.56–0.89; P=0.003), but not the risk of grade III/IV acute GVHD (HR, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.69–1.52; P=0.899) or chronic GVHD (HR, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.69–1.52; P=0.899), consistent with the GITMO trial. The 12-month incidence of NRM was higher for preemptive tx vs. watch and wait (13% vs 7%, P=0.002). In multivariate analysis preemptive steroid use independently predicted an increased risk of NRM (HR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.06–2.50; P=0.026) as did several other known risk factors (older recipient age, umbilical cord blood donor, HCT-CI ≥3, and myeloablative conditioning). Greater NRM in the preemptive tx group was driven primarily by 3-fold more infectious deaths; deaths due to uncontrolled GVHD were similar for both tx groups. The risk for relapse was unexpectedly lower in the preemptive tx group (HR 0.64; 95% CI 0.47-0.88; P=0.006) and overall survival was therefore not different between groups, but risk factors for relapse such as minimal residual disease status were not available precluding further analysis of this finding. Serum was collected in 871 (76%) pts at onset of grade I GVHD for retrospective biomarker analysis. AA scores were AA1 (80%), AA2 (15%), and AA3 (5%). AA scores were highly predictive of progression to grade III/IV GVHD (AA1 vs AA2 vs AA3: 9% vs 14% vs 44%, all P&lt;0.001) and the risk of 12-month NRM (8% vs 16% vs 39%, all P&lt;0.001); this pattern was observed in both tx groups. The negative effect of preemptive steroid tx was most pronounced in pts with grade I/AA1 GVHD who experienced 5-fold more infectious related deaths compared to pts managed with a watch and wait approach. Conclusion Treatment of grade I GVHD with systemic steroids did not reduce the incidence of grade III/IV GVHD or deaths due to uncontrolled GVHD and instead increased the risk of NRM from infections compared to pts who were treated only after GVHD progressed. Importantly, 2/3 of the watch and wait pts never needed systemic steroid tx. These findings remained robust after adjusting for multiple confounders, including center effects, and were consistent with the GITMO trial. MAGIC biomarkers at the onset of grade I GVHD predicted outcomes and a watch and wait strategy may be best for the 80% of pts with AA1 GVHD. Better treatment options are needed for the 20% of pts with grade I and AA2/3 GVHD.

Abstract Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) using an HLA mismatched unrelated donor (MMUD) with calcineurin inhibitor-based graft versus host disease (GVHD) prophylaxis results in increased incidence of non-relapse mortality (NRM) and lower survival compared to matched donor HCT. The NMDP sponsored 15-MMUD study demonstrated that post-transplant cyclophosphamide (PTCy)-based prophylaxis following bone marrow derived MMUD HCT resulted in reduced incidence of GVHD and favorable survival. Because marrow grafts can be difficult to procure and vary in quality, we conducted a phase II, prospective, multicenter study to evaluate PTCy-based GVHD prophylaxis in adult recipients of MMUD using peripheral blood stem cell (PBSC) allografts. The primary study aim was to estimate the probability of one-year overall survival (OS) post HCT. Secondary aims were to assess other key clinical endpoints and determine the rate of severe infections. Initial results of the first 70 recipients who received reduced intensity conditioning (RIC) were previously reported by Al Malki et al (JCO 2025) demonstrating a 1-year OS of 78.6% (95% CI, 67% to 86.5%). Here, we report results from a planned expansion of the study that included 123 additional RIC recipients, with updated results from the initial cohort of 70 patients (total N = 193 subjects) treated at 33 centers. Study participants received cyclophosphamide 50 mg/kg (ideal body weight) administered on days 3 and 4 post HCT with tacrolimus and mycophenolate mofetil as previously described (Al Malki, JCO, 2025). The median study participant age was 65.0 (range: 22.9-78.9); 92 (47.7%) of participants were male, and 84 (43.5%) identified as having other than non-Hispanic white ancestry. The HCT comorbidity index was high-risk (&gt;3) in 65 (33.7%). Underlying histologic diagnosis was AML in 96 (49.7%) participants, MDS in 43 (22.3%), ALL in 20 (10.4%), lymphoma or CLL in 24 (12.4%), and CML/other leukemias in 10 (5.2%). Conditioning regimens used were fludarabine and melphalan (100 or 140 mg/m2) (N=120; 62.2%), 2-day busulfan and fludarabine (N=38; 19.7%), and fludarabine, cyclophosphamide and total body irradiation (200 cGy) (N=32; 16.6%). Donor HLA matching (considering HLA-A, -B, -C, and -DRB1) was 7/8 in 131 (67.9%) of participants, 6/8-matched in 51 (26.4%), and 4-5/8-matched in 11 (5.7%) participants. Median donor age was 25.5 years (range: 18.7-35.7). The one-year overall OS estimate was 79.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 73.2-84.7). Survival was similar among HLA 7/8-matched donor recipients (77.8%, 69.7-84%) and &lt;7/8 matched donor recipients (83.7%, 71.8-90.9%). The one-year GVHD-free, relapse-free survival (GRFS) was 49.9% (42.6-56.9%) and the one-year progression-free survival was 70.2% (63.2-76.2%). The one-year cumulative incidence (CI) rates of NRM and relapse were 12.5% (8.3-17.6%) and 17.3%(12.3-23%), respectively. The 6-month CI of grade II-IV and grade III-IV acute GVHD were 40.0% (33.0-46.8%) and 7.8% (4.6-12.1%), respectively. The one-year incidence of all chronic GVHD and severe chronic GVHD were 15.6% (10.7-21.2%) and 3.7% (1.6-7%), respectively, by NIH consensus criteria. The CI of grade 1-4 cytokine release syndrome (CRS) by day 7 post HCT was 28.0% (21.8-34.9%), and grade 3-4 CRS was 0.5% (0-2.9%). Primary engraftment failure occurred in 9 (4.7%) participants. Among 145 evaluated participants, 85.5% were &gt;95% donor in blood chimerism at day 100 post HCT. Within the first 100 days after HCT, CTCAE grade 2-5 infections occurred in 113 (58.5%) of participants and grade 3-5 infections occurred in 59 (30.6%) of participants. The most common etiologies of grade 2-5 infections were bacterial (N=78), followed by viral (N=48). The most common grade 3-5 non-infectious toxicities were cardiac disorders, which occurred in 4 (2.1%) of participants. In conclusion, the results including this expansion cohort demonstrate encouraging 1-year OS, NRM and relapse rates in RIC recipients of PTCy-based GVHD prophylaxis and PBSC allografts from MMUDs. This larger cohort of 193 recipients re-affirm the results from the initial cohort with greater robustness.Measures to mitigate infection risk are likely to further improve outcomes. Reducing the dose of PTCy is a candidate approach currently being tested in the ongoing OPTIMIZE trial (NCT 06001385).These results support the extension of PBSC MMUD using PTCy to individuals who lack an HLA-matched donor and require RIC HCT.

Abstract Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) remains inaccessible to many patients, particularly those of non-European ancestry, due to the limited availability of matched unrelated donors (URD). While single-HLA mismatched donors (7/8) often yield acceptable outcomes, URD HCT mismatched at ≥ 2 HLA alleles (&lt;7/8) has historically been associated with poor survival and prohibitive toxicity. Post-transplant cyclophosphamide (PTCy) has improved outcomes following mismatched unrelated donor (MMUD) HCT, potentially enabling less stringent donor matching. Whether the degree of donor-recipient HLA disparity remains prognostic after MMUD HCT when PTCy is used is unknown. The ACCESS trial (NCT04904588) was conducted by the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research Clinical Research Organization and prospectively evaluated PTCy-based graft versus host disease (GVHD) prophylaxis in adult recipients of 4–7/8 (HLA-A, -B, -C and -DRB1) MMUD peripheral blood stem cells (PBSC) from donors age ≤35 years old following either myeloablative (MAC) or reduced intensity/non-myeloablative (RIC/NMA) conditioning. This analysis focused on all adult recipients of &lt;7/8 grafts enrolled on the study across both conditioning strata, with descriptive comparison to patients who received 7/8 MMUD PBSC grafts. The primary endpoint was 1-year overall survival (OS). Secondary endpoints included primary graft failure (PGF), non-relapse mortality (NRM), relapse, acute and chronic GVHD, and GVHD-free relapse-free survival (GRFS). A total of 268 adults received MMUD PBSC grafts: 85 with &lt;7/8 matches (MAC: n=23; RIC/NMA: n=62) and 183 with 7/8 matches (MAC: n=52; RIC/NMA: n=131). Among &lt;7/8 recipients, median age was 57 years old (range, 24–78), 49% were male, with diagnoses of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) (55%), myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) (15%), and lymphoma (14%). HLA mismatch distribution in the &lt;7/8 group was 6/8 in 82%, 5/8 in 14%, and 4/8 in 4%. Most received fludarabine/melphalan (44%) or myeloablative busulfan/fludarabine (21%). Median CD34+ cell dose was 5.5 ×10^6/recipient kg (range: 3.2-8.0) and 75% of grafts were cryopreserved prior to infusion. Median donor age was 25.8 (range: 18.7-35.7) in the 7/8 group and 25.0 (range: 18.3-34.8) in the &lt;7/8 group. The &lt;7/8 cohort was racially and ethnically diverse, with 61% identifying as other than non-Hispanic white. The 7/8 cohort had a median age of 63 years old (range, 20–79), with 52% male. Disease distribution, conditioning intensity, and infused cell doses were similar to the &lt;7/8 group. A smaller proportion of grafts were cryopreserved (61%), and 47% of patients identified as other than non-Hispanic White. One-year OS for &lt;7/8 recipients was 86% (95% CI: 76–92%), compared to 79% (95% CI: 72–84%) in 7/8 recipients. One-year incidence of relapse was 23% (95% CI: 14–33%) in the &lt;7/8 group and 17% (95% CI: 12–23%) in 7/8 recipients; NRM was 8% (95% CI: 4–16%) and 14% (95% CI: 9–19%), respectively. GRFS was 55% (95% CI: 43–65%) for &lt;7/8 and 51% (95% CI: 44–58%) for 7/8 recipients. PGF occurred in 8% (95% CI: 3–18%) of &lt;7/8 RIC recipients and 3% (95% CI: 1–8%) of 7/8 RIC recipients; no MAC recipients had PGF. At 6 months post-HCT, grade II–IV acute GVHD occurred in 34% (95% CI: 24–44%) of &lt;7/8 patients and 39% (95% CI: 32–46%) of 7/8; grade III–IV acute GVHD was observed in 7% (95% CI: 3–14%) and 8% (95% CI: 5–13%), respectively. Moderate to severe chronic GVHD (NIH consensus criteria) at one year occurred in 8% (95% CI: 3–15%) of &lt;7/8 recipients and 11% (95% CI: 7–16%) of 7/8 recipients. When grouped by conditioning intensity, 1-year outcomes within the &lt;7/8 cohort were: OS 91% after MAC and 84% after RIC/NMA; relapse in 32% after MAC and 20% after RIC/NMA, respectively; GRFS was 53% for MAC and 55% for RIC/NMA; and NRM remained low at 9% after MAC and 8% after RIC/NMA. In this cohort of adult recipients of &lt;7/8 MMUD PBSC grafts with PTCy-based GVHD prophylaxis enrolled on the ACCESS study, 1-year OS exceeded 80% and was comparable to 7/8 recipients. Relapse, NRM, and GVHD rates were similarly favorable and consistent with outcomes reported in 7/8 donor recipients. These findings support extending suitable MMUD match considerations to include 4-6/8 in the context of PTCy, potentially enabling near-universal donor access, while allowing for optimization of other non-HLA donor factors.

Abstract Changes in the clinical symptoms of acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) are currently used to assess treatment responses. The Mount Sinai Acute GVHD International Consortium (MAGIC) consortium has recently revealed that the integration of serum biomarkers with clinical symptoms at the onset of treatment in a MAGIC composite score (MCS) more accurately predicts treatment response and 6-month nonrelapse mortality (NRM) than clinical symptoms alone. In this study, we evaluated whether the integration of serum biomarkers and clinical symptoms on day 28 (D28) would also better predict NRM than clinical response only (CRO). We analyzed data from 1135 patients receiving systemic treatment for acute GVHD and created a fourth MCS category for patients with complete resolution of symptoms and low-risk clinical biomarkers on D28. Using a classification and regression tree model with 6-month NRM as the end point, we identified status of MCS 0 or MCS 1 at D28 as responses, which we termed the MAGIC composite response (MCR). In the validation cohort (n = 309), MCR more accurately predicted 6-month NRM than CRO (area under the curve: 0.77 vs 0.69; P = .014) and demonstrated higher negative and positive predictive values. MCR correctly reclassified both clinical nonresponders and responders: 28 of 213 clinical responders (13%) became nonresponders with fivefold higher NRM (34.3% vs 6.8%, P &lt; .001) and a larger group (29/96, 30%) of clinical nonresponders became responders with sixfold lower NRM (7.6% vs 50.7%, P &lt; .001). These findings support the use of MCR as a superior surrogate end point for long-term GVHD control and survival in future clinical trials.

Background: The majority of patients respond to steroid treatment for graft-vs-host disease (GVHD), but the typically high doses and prolonged courses can cause substantial morbidity. GVHD can be classified at onset into two groups with significant differences in treatment response and non-relapse mortality (NRM) by clinical criteria (Minnesota risk) but the more favorable standard risk group still experiences high rates of treatment failure and NRM [MacMillan, BBMT 2015]. We previously validated a serum biomarker-based (ST2+REG3α) risk stratification system, MAGIC algorithm probabilities (MAPs), that can stratify patients both at initiation and during treatment into risk groups for treatment response and NRM [Hartwell, JCI Insight 2017, Srinagesh, Blood Adv 2019]. GVHD that is Minnesota standard risk and has a low MAP (i.e., Ann Arbor 1) at start of treatment represents a low risk group with &gt;80% response rate to steroids and ~10% NRM [Etra, Blood 2023]. We hypothesized that serial monitoring of GVHD symptom severity and MAPs twice (days (d) 7 and 14) in patients with clinical and biomarker defined low risk GVHD could further stratify patients into clinically meaningful groups. Methods: We retrospectively determined MAPs at d7 and 14 in 450 patients with low risk GVHD who participated in a prospective, multi-center, observational trial and were treated with systemic steroids between 2015-2023. MAPs &lt;0.291 at days 7 and 14 were defined as low risk based on a previously validated threshold [Major-Monfried Blood 2018]. Clinical responses were scored as complete (CR), partial (PR), or non-response (NR) by standard criteria. Initiation of second line therapy was considered NR. Patients were categorized into three groups (A-C) based on clinical responses and MAPs at days d7 and 14. A: CR/PR by d14 and low MAP at both d7+14; B: stable or worse GVHD (NR) by d14 with low MAP at both d7 and 14; C: any response with a high MAP at d7 or 14. The endpoints were clinical response at day 28 (overall response rate, ORR=CR or PR), regardless of earlier response status, and 6-month NRM. Results: The median age of the study population was 54 years (range: 0-79); 19% of patients received PT-Cy for GVHD prophylaxis. Target organ involvement was skin ± upper GI (66%), lower GI (23%), isolated UGI (11%), and skin+liver (1%), and GVHD severity was grade I (35%), II (61%), and III (4%) at start of treatment. Patients in group A (n=310, 69%), clinical responders with low MAPs through day 14, had excellent d28 ORR (93%) and very low NRM (4%). GVHD in this group was considered ultra-low risk (ULR) and subset analyses revealed highly consistent d28 ORR and NRM, regardless of target organ severity, age (&lt;18, 18-59, &gt;60), HCT-CI score, conditioning intensity, and GVHD prophylaxis. Group B patients comprised clinical non-responders with low MAPs through day 14 (n=112, 25%); half of them responded by d28 and their NRM was low (8%), albeit double that of group A (p=0.079). Group C was small (n=28, 6%) and included both clinical responders (n=20, 4%) and clinical non-responders (n=8, 2%) who had at least one high MAP through day 14. Their d28 ORR was 54% but NRM increased four-fold (32%) and was significantly worse than patients who maintained low MAPs regardless of clinical response (p&lt;0.001). Conclusion: Serial monitoring by clinical response and biomarkers during the first two weeks of treatment identifies a small number of high risk patients whose GVHD is initially low risk (group C). This group experiences high NRM regardless of clinical response to steroid treatment and may benefit from treatment escalation. Patients with low risk GVHD who do not have an early clinical response to steroids but maintain low MAPs, (group B) have reasonably good long-term outcomes with standard treatment. Finally, serial monitoring identifies a very large subset of patients with ULR GVHD (group A) who respond exceptionally well to standard treatment and experience very low rates of 6-month NRM regardless of pre-transplant characteristics and GVHD prophylaxis. Such patients may benefit from treatment de-escalation strategies such as shorter courses of lower dose steroids, a strategy we are currently testing in a clinical trial (NCT05090384).

Abstract To examine the activity of ibrutinib in steroid-refractory chronic graft-versus-host disease (SR-cGVHD) after the US Food and Drug Administration approval, we conducted a multicenter retrospective study. Data were standardly collected (N = 270 from 19 centers). Involved organs included skin (75%), eye (61%), mouth (54%), joint/fascia (47%), gastrointestinal (GI) (26%), lung (27%), liver (19%), genital (7%), and others (4.4%). The National Institutes of Health (NIH) severity was mild in 5.7%, moderate 42%, and severe 53%. Thirty-nine percent had overlap subtype. Karnofsky performance status (KPS) was ≥80% in 72%. The median prednisone was 0.21 mg/kg (0-2.27). Ibrutinib was started at a median of 18.2 months after cGVHD onset and in earlier lines of therapy (second line, 26%; third, 30%; fourth, 21%; fifth, 9.6%; sixth, 10%; seventh or higher, 1.2%). Among evaluable patients, the 6-month NIH overall response rate (ORR; complete response [CR]/partial response [PR]) was 45% (PR 42%; CR 3%). The median duration of response was 15 months (range, 1-46). Liver involvement had association with 6-month ORR (multivariate [MVA] odds ratio, 5.49; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.3-14.2; P &lt; .001). The best overall response was 56%, with most (86%) achieving by 1 to 3 months. With a median follow-up for survivors of 30.5 months, failure-free survival (FFS) was 59% (53%-65%) at 6 months and 41% (36%-48%) at 12 months. On MVA, increased age (hazard ratio [HR], 1.01; 95% CI, 1.0-1.02; P = .033), higher baseline prednisone (HR, 1.92; 95% CI, 1.09-3.38; P = .032), and lung involvement (HR, 1.58; 95% CI, 1.1-2.28; P = .016) had worse FFS. Ibrutinib discontinuation was most commonly due to progressive cGVHD (44%) or toxicity (42%). These data support that ibrutinib has activity in SR-cGVHD, provide new insight into factors associated with response and FFS, and demonstrate the toxicity profile associated with discontinuation.

Abstract Acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) grading systems that use only clinical symptoms at treatment initiation such as the Minnesota risk identify standard and high-risk categories but lack a low-risk category suitable to minimize immunosuppressive strategies. We developed a new grading system that includes a low-risk stratum based on clinical symptoms alone and determined whether the incorporation of biomarkers would improve the model’s prognostic accuracy. We randomly divided 1863 patients in the Mount Sinai Acute GVHD International Consortium (MAGIC) who were treated for GVHD into training and validation cohorts. Patients in the training cohort were divided into 14 groups based on similarity of clinical symptoms and similar nonrelapse mortality (NRM); we used a classification and regression tree (CART) algorithm to create three Manhattan risk groups that produced a significantly higher area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for 6-month NRM than the Minnesota risk classification (0.69 vs 0.64, P = .009) in the validation cohort. We integrated serum GVHD biomarker scores with Manhattan risk using patients with available serum samples and again used a CART algorithm to establish 3 MAGIC composite scores that significantly improved prediction of NRM compared to Manhattan risk (AUC, 0.76 vs 0.70, P = .010). Each increase in MAGIC composite score also corresponded to a significant decrease in day 28 treatment response (80% vs 63% vs 30%, P &lt; .001). We conclude that the MAGIC composite score more accurately predicts response to therapy and long-term outcomes than systems based on clinical symptoms alone and may help guide clinical decisions and trial design.

Abstract The significance of biomarkers in second-line treatment for acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) has not been well characterized. We analyzed clinical data and serum samples at the initiation of second-line systemic treatment of acute GVHD from 167 patients from 17 centers of the Mount Sinai Acute GVHD International Consortium (MAGIC) between 2016 and 2021. Sixty-two patients received ruxolitinib-based therapy, whereas 102 received other systemic agents. In agreement with prospective trials, ruxolitinib resulted in a higher day 28 (D28) overall response Frate than nonruxolitinib therapies (55% vs 31%, P = .003) and patients who received ruxolitinib had significantly lower nonrelapse mortality (NRM) than those who received nonruxolitinib therapies (point estimates at 2-year: 35% vs 61%, P = .002). Biomarker analyses demonstrated that the benefit from ruxolitinib was observed only in patients with low MAGIC algorithm probabilities (MAPs) at the start of second-line treatment. Among patients with a low MAP, those who received ruxolitinib experienced significantly lower NRM than those who received nonruxolitinib therapies (point estimates at 2-year: 12% vs 41%, P = .016). However, patients with high MAP experienced high NRM regardless of treatment with ruxolitinib or nonruxolitinib therapies (point estimates at 2-year: 67% vs 80%, P = .65). A landmark analysis demonstrated that the relationship between the D28 response and NRM largely depends on the MAP level at the initiation of second-line therapy. In conclusion, MAP measured at second-line systemic treatment for acute GVHD predicts treatment response and NRM. The outcomes of patients with high MAP are poor regardless of treatment choice, and ruxolitinib appears to primarily benefit patients with low MAP.