Huang, Jing Yang

Background: Cardiac disease is the leading cause of premature mortality in Friedreich Ataxia (FA). However, validated prognostic indicators or early imaging biomarkers that can reliably predict cardiac events are lacking. To address this gap, we created a multicenter FA cardiac registry to characterize disease progression and identify early echocardiographic (echo) predictors of major adverse cardiac events (MACE). Methods: FA subjects from 6 North American centers with at least two echos performed ≥5 years apart were included. Demographics, FA-specific disease characteristics, and MACE (a composite of death, heart failure hospitalization, aborted sudden cardiac death, and/or life-threatening arrhythmia) were abstracted. Digital echo images were re-read at a centralized core lab. Paired T tests were utilized for comparison of the normally distributed first and second echo parameters, and logistic regression models were utilized to evaluate for predictors of MACE. Results: Of 115 subjects, 52 (45%) were female. Mean age at diagnosis was 10 ± 3 years, median GAA1 repeat length (a marker of genetic severity) was 700 (range 66–1200), and median age at first analyzed echo was 12 years (range 4-36). MACE occurred in 35 (30%) of the cohort. Serial echocardiograms demonstrated progressive worsening of multiple cardiac parameters over time, including markers of ventricular thickness and hypertrophy, chamber size, systolic function, and novel markers of atrial and ventricular strain (Table 1). On univariate analysis, several markers of hypertrophy and systolic function from the earliest analyzed echo predicted MACE. However, after adjusting for age of diagnosis, GAA1 repeat length, and collinearity among variables, only posterior wall thickness in diastole (PWTd) remained an independent predictor of MACE (odds ratio 1.8 per mm increase, 95% CI 1.1–3.3, p = 0.028). Conclusions: This multicenter FA registry identifies early posterior wall thickness as a significant and independent predictor of major adverse cardiac events in FA. Each millimeter increase in PWTd on early echo is associated with nearly double the odds of MACE. This commonly acquired parameter is often overlooked and may serve as a powerful early marker of cardiac risk. Further investigation of PWTd as a potential surrogate endpoint for therapeutic trials in FA is warranted.

AbstractPurposeSevere adverse events (AEs), such as Guillain‐Barré syndrome (GBS) occur rarely after influenza vaccination. We identify highly associated AEs with GBS and develop prediction models for GBS using the US Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) reports following trivalent influenza vaccination (FLU3).MethodsThis study analyzed 80 059 reports from the US VAERS between 1990 and 2017. Several AEs were identified as highly associated with GBS and were used to develop the prediction model. Some common and mild AEs that were suspected to be underreported when GBS occurred simultaneously were removed from the final model. The analyses were validated using European influenza vaccine AEs data from EudraVigilance.ResultsOf the 80 059 reports, 1185 (1.5%) were annotated as GBS related. Twenty‐four AEs were identified as having strong association with GBS. The full prediction model, using age, sex, and all 24 AEs achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) of 85.4% (90% CI: [83.8%, 86.9%]). After excluding the nine (e.g., pruritus, rash, injection site pain) likely underreported AEs, the final AUC became 77.5% (90% CI: [75.5%, 79.6%]). Two hundred and one (0.25%) reports were predicted as of high risk of GBS (predicted probability >25%) and 84 actually developed GBS.ConclusionThe prediction performance demonstrated the potential of developing risk‐prediction models utilizing the VAERS cohort. Excluding the likely underreported AEs sacrificed some prediction power but made the model more interpretable and feasible. The high absolute risk of even a small number of AE combinations suggests the promise of GBS prediction within the VAERS dataset.