Luo, Chongliang

Abstract Background and Aims Perianal fistuliing Crohn’s disease [PFCD] is an aggressive phenotype of Crohn’s disease defined by frequent relapses and disabling symptoms. A novel consensus classification system was recently outlined by the TOpCLASS consortium, which seeks to unify disease severity with patient-centred goals but has not yet been validated. We aimed to apply this to a real-world cohort and to identify factors that predict transition between classes over time. Methods We identified all patients with PFCD and at least one baseline and one follow-up pelvic MRI [pMRI]. TOpCLASS classification, disease characteristics, and imaging indices were collected retrospectively at time periods corresponding with respective MRIs. Results We identified 100 patients with PFCD, of whom 96 were assigned TOpCLASS Classes 1–2c at baseline. Most patients [78.1%] started in Class 2b, but changes in classification were observed in 52.1% of all patients. Male sex [72.0%, 46.6%, 40.0%, p = 0.03] and prior perianal surgery [52.0% vs 44.6% vs 40.0%, p = 0.02] were more frequently observed in those with improved class compared to unchanged and worsened class. Baseline pMRI indices were not associated with changes in classification; however, greater improvements in mVAI, MODIFI-CD, and PEMPAC were seen among those who improved. Linear mixed effect modelling identified only male sex [-0.31, 95% CI -0.60 to -0.02] with improvement in class. Conclusion The TOpCLASS classification highlights the dynamic nature of PFCD over time. However, our ability to predict transitions between classes remains limited and requires prospective assessment. Improvement in MRI index scores over time was associated with a transition to lower TOpCLASS classification.

AbstractPurposeSevere adverse events (AEs), such as Guillain‐Barré syndrome (GBS) occur rarely after influenza vaccination. We identify highly associated AEs with GBS and develop prediction models for GBS using the US Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) reports following trivalent influenza vaccination (FLU3).MethodsThis study analyzed 80 059 reports from the US VAERS between 1990 and 2017. Several AEs were identified as highly associated with GBS and were used to develop the prediction model. Some common and mild AEs that were suspected to be underreported when GBS occurred simultaneously were removed from the final model. The analyses were validated using European influenza vaccine AEs data from EudraVigilance.ResultsOf the 80 059 reports, 1185 (1.5%) were annotated as GBS related. Twenty‐four AEs were identified as having strong association with GBS. The full prediction model, using age, sex, and all 24 AEs achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) of 85.4% (90% CI: [83.8%, 86.9%]). After excluding the nine (e.g., pruritus, rash, injection site pain) likely underreported AEs, the final AUC became 77.5% (90% CI: [75.5%, 79.6%]). Two hundred and one (0.25%) reports were predicted as of high risk of GBS (predicted probability >25%) and 84 actually developed GBS.ConclusionThe prediction performance demonstrated the potential of developing risk‐prediction models utilizing the VAERS cohort. Excluding the likely underreported AEs sacrificed some prediction power but made the model more interpretable and feasible. The high absolute risk of even a small number of AE combinations suggests the promise of GBS prediction within the VAERS dataset.