Quesenberry, Charles P.

Importance Despite treatment advances, metastatic recurrence continues to be a leading cause of morbidity and mortality. Empirical data on the incidence and survival after metastatic recurrence remain limited, as cancer registries historically do not collect data on recurrence. Objective To estimate the cumulative incidence (CMI) of metastatic recurrence among adolescents and young adults diagnosed with earlier-stage disease and compare survival to those with metastatic disease at diagnosis. Design, Setting, Participants This was a retrospective cohort study of adolescents and young adults aged 15 to 39 years who were diagnosed with nonmetastatic cancers from 2006 to 2018. Adolescents and young adults were identified from the California Cancer Registry linked with statewide hospitalization, emergency department, and ambulatory surgery encounters from the California Department of Health Care Access and Information. Data were analyzed from December 2023 to June 2025. Exposures Cancer types, including melanoma, sarcoma, and breast, cervical, colorectal, testicular, and thyroid cancers. Main Outcomes and Measures Metastatic recurrence was identified using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification, and Tenth Revision, Clinical Modification, metastatic disease codes at least 6 months after cancer diagnosis or from an underlying cancer cause of death. Follow-up was through December 31, 2020. Results Of a total of 48 406 adolescents and young adults (median [IQR] age at diagnosis, 33.0 [28.0-37.0] years; 67.4% female), 9.2% had metastatic disease at diagnosis, and 9.5% had metastatic recurrence. Among 43 935 adolescents and young adults who presented with nonmetastatic disease, the 5-year CMI of metastatic recurrences was highest among patients with sarcoma (24.5%; 95% CI, 22.6%-26.6%) and colorectal cancer (21.8%; 95% CI, 20.3%-23.4%) and intermediate for cervical (16.3%; 95% CI, 15.0%-17.6%) and breast (14.7%; 95% CI, 14.0%-15.4%) cancers. The CMI for metastatic recurrence increased with increasing stage at diagnosis, with 5-year CMIs higher than 30% for all stage III cancers (except thyroid). The 5-year CMI of metastatic recurrence also increased over time for cervical cancer (2006-2009: 12.7% [95% CI, 10.8%-14.8%]; 2015-2018: 20.4% [95% CI, 17.5%-23.6%]) and decreased for colorectal cancer (2006-2009: 24.4% [95% CI, 21.3%-27.6%]; 2015-2018: 19.2% [95% CI, 16.4%-22.2%]). Survival after metastatic recurrence was worse than metastatic disease at diagnosis for all cancer types, except for testicular and thyroid cancers. Conclusions and Relevance The findings from this cohort study highlight the overall burden of metastatic disease in adolescents and young adults, expanding the knowledge of metastatic recurrences that help improve care for adolescent and young adult survivors throughout the cancer survivorship spectrum.

Abstract Background Few studies have assessed the burden of chronic medical conditions in adolescent and young adult (AYA) cancer survivors. This study estimated the risk of these conditions among AYA survivors compared to a matched cohort without cancer. Methods This retrospective cohort study included 2‐year survivors ( n = 14,917) of 11 common AYA (15–39 years) cancers diagnosed at the integrated health care organizations of Kaiser Permanente (KP) Southern and Northern California during 2006–2020. A comparison cohort ( n = 149,164) without cancer (matched 10:1 by age, sex, calendar year, and KP site) was included. Cumulative incidence (CMI) accounting for death as a competing risk was calculated. Poisson regression estimated the incidence rate ratio (IRR) of each condition in cancer survivors versus the matched cohort, adjusting for age, sex, and race/ethnicity. Results The 5‐year CMI was highest for thyroid (17.4%), respiratory (6.6%), cardiovascular (5.0%), and liver (4.8%) diseases. At 10 years, the CMI of any condition was 39% in survivors versus 26% in the matched cohort. Survivors had a 2‐fold increased risk of being diagnosed with any medical condition (IRR, 2.0; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.9–2.0) as well as two or more conditions (IRR, 2.3; 95% CI, 2.2–2.5). Risk was highest among survivors of hematologic cancers and those diagnosed with distant stage disease. Elevated risks were observed within all sociodemographic groups of this insured population. Conclusion AYAs with cancer had a higher risk of chronic medical conditions compared to those without cancer. Long‐term surveillance, risk mitigation through lifestyle modifications and effective disease management are crucial to reduce premature mortality.

Abstract A genome-wide association study (GWAS) of prostate cancer in Kaiser Permanente health plan members (7,783 cases, 38,595 controls; 80.3% non-Hispanic white, 4.9% African-American, 7.0% East Asian, and 7.8% Latino) revealed a new independent risk indel rs4646284 at the previously identified locus 6q25.3 that replicated in PEGASUS (N = 7,539) and the Multiethnic Cohort (N = 4,679) with an overall P = 1.0 × 10−19 (OR, 1.18). Across the 6q25.3 locus, rs4646284 exhibited the strongest association with expression of SLC22A1 (P = 1.3 × 10−23) and SLC22A3 (P = 3.2 × 10−52). At the known 19q13.33 locus, rs2659124 (P = 1.3 × 10−13; OR, 1.18) nominally replicated in PEGASUS. A risk score of 105 known risk SNPs was strongly associated with prostate cancer (P < 1.0 × 10−8). Comparing the highest to lowest risk score deciles, the OR was 6.22 for non-Hispanic whites, 5.82 for Latinos, 3.77 for African-Americans, and 3.38 for East Asians. In non-Hispanic whites, the 105 risk SNPs explained approximately 7.6% of disease heritability. The entire GWAS array explained approximately 33.4% of heritability, with a 4.3-fold enrichment within DNaseI hypersensitivity sites (P = 0.004). Significance: Taken together, our findings of independent risk variants, ethnic variation in existing SNP replication, and remaining unexplained heritability have important implications for further clarifying the genetic risk of prostate cancer. Our findings also suggest that there may be much promise in evaluating understudied variation, such as indels and ethnically diverse populations. Cancer Discov; 5(8); 878–91. ©2015 AACR. This article is highlighted in the In This Issue feature, p. 783