Hartmann, Lynn C.

Background More than 1.5 million women per year have a benign breast biopsy resulting in concern about their future breast cancer (BC) risk. This study examined the performance of 2 BC risk models that integrate clinical and histologic findings in this population. Methods The BC risk at 5 and 10 years was estimated with the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) and Benign Breast Disease to Breast Cancer (BBD‐BC) models for women diagnosed with benign breast disease (BBD) at the Mayo Clinic from 1997 to 2001. Women with BBD were eligible for the BBD‐BC model, but the BCSC model also required a screening mammogram. Calibration and discrimination were assessed. Results Fifty‐six cases of BC were diagnosed among the 2142 women with BBD (median age, 50 years) within 5 years (118 were diagnosed within 10 years). The BBD‐BC model had slightly better calibration at 5 years (0.89; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.71‐1.21) versus 10 years (0.81; 95% CI, 0.70‐1.00) but similar discrimination in the 2 time periods: 0.68 (95% CI, 0.60‐0.75) and 0.66 (95% CI, 0.60‐0.71), respectively. In contrast, among the 1089 women with screening mammograms (98 cases of BC within 10 years), the BCSC model had better calibration (0.94; 95% CI, 0.85‐1.43) and discrimination (0.63; 95% CI, 0.56‐0.71) at 10 years versus 5 years (calibration, 1.31; 95% CI, 0.94‐2.25; discrimination, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.46‐0.71) where discrimination was not different from chance. Conclusions The BCSC and BBD‐BC models were validated in the Mayo BBD cohort, although their performance differed by 5‐year risk versus 10‐year risk. Further enhancement of these models is needed to provide accurate BC risk estimates for women with BBD.

Purpose Women with atypical hyperplasia (AH) on breast biopsy have an aggregate increased risk of breast cancer (BC), but existing risk prediction models do not provide accurate individualized estimates of risk in this subset of high-risk women. Here, we used the Mayo benign breast disease cohort to develop and validate a model of BC risk prediction that is specifically for women with AH, which we have designated as AH-BC. Patients and Methods Retrospective cohorts of women age 18 to 85 years with pathologically confirmed benign AH from Rochester, MN, and Nashville, TN, were used for model development and external validation, respectively. Clinical risk factors and histologic features of the tissue biopsy were selected using L1-penalized Cox proportional hazards regression. Identified features were included in a Fine and Gray regression model to estimate BC risk, with death as a competing risk. Model discrimination and calibration were assessed in the model-building set and an external validation set. Results The model-building set consisted of 699 women with AH, 142 of whom developed BC (median follow-up, 8.1 years), and the external validation set consisted of 461 women with 114 later BC events (median follow-up, 11.4 years). The final AH-BC model included three covariates: age at biopsy, age at biopsy squared, and number of foci of AH. At 10 years, the AH-BC model demonstrated good discrimination (0.63 [95% CI, 0.57 to 0.70]) and calibration (0.87 [95% CI, 0.66 to 1.24]). In the external validation set, the model showed acceptable discrimination (0.59 [95% CI, 0.51 to 0.67]) and calibration (0.91 [95% CI, 0.65 to 1.42]). Conclusion We have created a new model with which to refine BC risk prediction for women with AH. The AH-BC model demonstrates good discrimination and calibration, and it validates in an external data set.

Abstract Purpose: To determine the dose limiting toxicities (DLT), maximum tolerated dose (MTD), and recommended phase II dose (RP2D) of veliparib in combination with weekly topotecan in patients with solid tumors. Correlative studies were included to assess the impact of topotecan and veliparib on poly(ADP-ribose) levels in peripheral blood mononuclear cells, serum pharmacokinetics of both agents, and potential association of germline repair gene mutations with outcome. Experimental Design: Eligible patients had metastatic nonhematologic malignancies with measurable disease. Using a 3 + 3 design, patients were treated with veliparib orally twice daily on days 1–3, 8–10, and 15–17 and topotecan intravenously on days 2, 9, and 16 every 28 days. Tumor responses were assessed by RECIST. Results: Of 58 patients enrolled, 51 were evaluable for the primary endpoint. The MTD and RP2D was veliparib 300 mg twice daily on days 1–3, 8–10, and 15–17 along with topotecan 3 mg/m2 on days 2, 9, and 16 of a 28-day cycle. DLTs were grade 4 neutropenia lasting >5 days. The median number of cycles was 2 (1–26). The objective response rate was 10%, with 1 complete and 4 partial responses. Twenty-two patients (42%) had stable disease ranging from 4 to 26 cycles. Patients with germline BRCA1, BRCA2, or RAD51D mutations remained on study longer than those without homologous recombination repair (HRR) gene mutations (median 4 vs. 2 cycles). Conclusions: Weekly topotecan in combination with veliparib has a manageable safety profile and appears to warrant further investigation.

2 Background: Women with atypical hyperplasia (AH) on breast biopsy have an aggregate increased risk of breast cancer (BC), but accurate personalized risk prediction is desirable to facilitate individual clinical management decisions. Currently used models provide poor BC risk prediction for women with AH. Our goal was to develop and validate an improved risk prediction model for women with AH. Methods: From a cohort of 13,538 women with benign breast disease from 1967-2001, pathology review confirmed 699 with AH. Clinical risk factors and histologic features of the tissue biopsy were recorded, and BC events were ascertained from study questionnaires, tumor registry, and review of medical records. Using a lasso approach, 23 variables were assessed for model inclusion. Lasso-identified features were then fit in a Cox regression model to estimate BC risk. Model discrimination was assessed with C-statistics in the model-building set and in a separate external validation set. Calibration was assessed by comparing observed to predicted breast cancer counts. Results: The model-building set comprised 699 women with 142 BC events (median follow-up 8.1 years), and the external validation set comprised 461 women with 114 BC events (median follow-up 11.4 years). The final model included three covariates: age at biopsy, age squared, and number of foci of AH. Model performance was good, with a C-statistic of 0.622 (SE = 0.027) in the model-building set and 0.594 (SE = 0.029) in the external validation set. The model is well-calibrated, with observed to expected numbers of BCs nearly equal across all post-biopsy follow-up years. Conclusions: We propose a new model for predicting BC risk in women with AH based on age at biopsy and number of foci of atypia. This model provides absolute risk estimates for women with AH, has good discriminatory ability, is well-calibrated, and validates in an external cohort.

PURPOSE: To estimate the efficacy of contralateral prophylactic mastectomy in women with a personal and family history of breast cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We followed the course of 745 women with a first breast cancer and a family history of breast and/or ovarian cancer who underwent contralateral prophylactic mastectomy at the Mayo Clinic between 1960 and 1993. Family history information and cancer follow-up information were obtained from the medical record, a study-specific questionnaire, and telephone follow-up. Life-tables for contralateral breast cancers, which consider age at first breast cancer, current age, and type of family history, were used to calculate the number of breast cancers expected in our cohort had they not had a prophylactic mastectomy. RESULTS: Of the 745 women in our cohort, 388 were premenopausal (age < 50 years) and 357 were post- menopausal. Eight women developed a contralateral breast cancer. Six events were observed among the premenopausal women, compared with 106.2 predicted, resulting in a risk reduction of 94.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], 87.7% to 97.9%). For the 357 postmenopausal women, 50.3 contralateral breast cancers were predicted, whereas only two were observed, representing a 96.0% risk reduction (95% CI, 85.6% to 99.5%). CONCLUSION: The incidence of contralateral breast cancer seems to be reduced significantly after contralateral prophylactic mastectomy in women with a personal and family history of breast cancer.

PURPOSE: Samarium-153 ethylene diamine tetramethylene phosphonate (153Sm-EDTMP), a bone-seeking radiopharmaceutical, provides therapeutic irradiation to osteoblastic bone metastases. Because the dose-limiting toxicity of 153Sm-EDTMP is thrombocytopenia, a dose-escalation trial using peripheral-blood progenitor cells (PBPCs) or marrow support was conducted to treat metastatic bone cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with locally recurrent or metastatic osteosarcoma or skeletal metastases avid on bone scan were treated with 1, 3, 4.5, 6, 12, 19, or 30 mCi/kg of 153Sm-EDTMP. RESULTS: Thirty patients were treated with 153Sm-EDTMP. Transient symptoms of hypocalcemia were seen at 30 mCi/kg. Estimates of radioisotope bound to bone surfaces and marrow radiation dose were linear with injected amount of 153Sm-EDTMP. Cytopenias also occurred in all subjects and were dose-related. At day +13 after 153Sm-EDTMP, residual whole-body radioactivity was 1% to 65% of whole-body radioactivity considered safe for PBPC infusion, 3.6 mCi. After PBPC or marrow infusion on day +14 after 153Sm-EDTMP, recovery of hematopoiesis was problematic in two patients at the 30 mCi/kg dose infused with less than 2 × 106 CD34+/kg on day +14, but not in other patients. Reduction or elimination of opiates for pain was seen in all patients. Patients had no adverse changes in appetite or performance status. CONCLUSION: 153Sm-EDTMP with PBPC support can provide bone-specific therapeutic irradiation (estimates of 39 to 241 Gy). Hematologic toxicity at 30 mCi 153Sm-EDTMP/kg requires PBPC grafts with more than 2 × 106 CD34+/kg to overcome myeloablative effects of skeletal irradiation. Nonhematologic side effects are minimal.

240 Background: Contralateral prophylactic mastectomy (CPM) is increasingly chosen by patients with breast cancer. Satisfaction after CPM is high. However, decreased satisfaction has been associated with reoperation after reconstruction. This study’s aim was to examine the adverse aspects patients attribute to reconstruction and the subsequent effect on psychosocial consequences and satisfaction with CPM. Methods: 487 unilateral breast cancer patients with a family history of breast cancer who underwent CPM between 1960 and 1993 were mailed a questionnaire evaluating QOL and satisfaction with CPM. Results: Of 269 respondents, 210 (78%) underwent reconstruction and 59 (22%) did not. Mean age at CPM was 46 and 50 years respectively (p=0.01). Mean follow-up was 20.2 years. Reconstruction was immediate in 96%, 98% with implants and 2% with tissue flap. Reconstruction was associated with lower satisfaction with CPM (p=0.03), but still only 7% (vs 2% in those without reconstruction) said they were dissatisfied. Most (83%) of those with reconstruction said they would choose reconstruction again while 7% were unsure and 10% said they would not. In those who did not undergo reconstruction, 18% said they would choose reconstruction if able to make the choice again while 5% were unsure and 77% said they still would not. 95 patients (45%) of those that underwent reconstruction required one or more reoperations for complications. Those with reoperation reported poorer responses for satisfaction with CPM (p=0.04), choice to have CPM again (p=0.008), and choice to have reconstruction again (p=0.004) when compared to patients with reconstruction and no reoperation. Those with and without reconstruction did not differ significantly with respect to femininity, sexual relationships or emotional stability, but those without reconstruction reported significantly poorer effects related to self esteem (p=0.04) and body appearance (p=0.002). Conclusions: In patients who undergo CPM, many years after surgery satisfaction with CPM is higher in those choosing not to have reconstruction than those with reconstruction although it was high in both groups. Reoperation is common after reconstruction and is associated with lower satisfaction.