Wamil, Malgorzata

Abstract Background Current risk assessment tools for guiding direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC) therapy for patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) based on clinical risk factors demonstrate modest predictive performance limiting clinical impact. Additionally, while guidelines recommend periodic reassessment of risk over time, there remains an absence of modelling solutions for capturing evolving risk in AF patients. Methods Using UK electronic health records, we developed and validated the Transformer-based Risk assessment survival model (TRisk), an artificial intelligence model that predicts 12-month thromboembolic and bleeding events in AF patients by leveraging temporal patient journeys up to baseline. A cohort of 411,850 prevalent non-valvular AF patients aged ≥18 years between 2010 and 2020 was identified from 1,442 English general practices. Practices were randomly allocated to derivation (n=1,079) and external validation (n=363) cohorts. TRisk was compared with CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc and CHA 2 DS 2 -VA for thromboembolic event prediction, and HAS-BLED and ORBIT for bleeding prediction, with subgroup analyses by sex, age, and baseline characteristics. A second validation of TRisk was also performed on 16,218 US AF patients between 2010 and 2023. A decision model compared outcomes and healthcare costs for TRisk versus standard care. Findings TRisk achieved higher discrimination for thromboembolic event prediction (C-index: 0.82; 95% confidence interval [CI]: [0.81, 0.83]) as compared to CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc (0.71 [0.70, 0.73]) in UK validation. Application of TRisk to US data yielded similar C-index: 0.82 (0.80, 0.84). For bleeding prediction, TRisk (C-index: 0.70 [0.69–0.71]) outperformed both HAS-BLED (0.63; [0.61, 0.64]) and ORBIT (0.64; [0.63, 0.65]), with comparable US results (0.71; [0.69, 0.74]). The model remained well-calibrated across both populations and performed equitably across subgroups, including by race and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Impact analyses showed TRisk could reduce DOAC prescriptions by 8% in the UK and 7% in the US relative to guideline-recommended approaches, while preventing at least as many thromboembolic events. This refined approach would generate annual healthcare savings of £5.5 million and $456.2 million in the UK and US respectively among patients initiating DOACs, rising to £48.6 million and $1.8 billion when extended to all AF patients on DOACs. Interpretation TRisk enabled more precise prediction for both thromboembolic and bleeding events across AF populations in UK and US compared to established clinical scoring systems. Incorporating TRisk into routine AF care would result in substantial cost savings without compromising the identification of true high-risk patients. Funding None

Background and objective: Heart failure (HF) is associated with high morbidity, mortality, and healthcare costs. Its prevalence continues to rise, particularly in the context of ageing populations and increasing rates of metabolic comorbidities such as type 2 diabetes and obesity. We aimed to assess the therapeutic potential of repurposing PPARα agonists for the treatment of HF. Method: We conducted a comprehensive literature review to evaluate preclinical and clinical evidence investigating the potential of PPARα agonist drugs in reducing HF. We did not apply any restrictions on the study design. Results: The current body of evidence consists of preclinical mechanistic studies, emerging pharmacogenetic data, and post hoc analyses of large randomised clinical trials (RCTs) that included HF endpoints. No dedicated, HF-specific RCTs of PPARα agonists were identified. These studies support the hypothesis that PPARα agonists may link metabolic modulation with cardiac remodelling. Preclinical models demonstrate potential therapeutic benefits, such as enhanced myocardial energy metabolism and attenuation of fibrosis and inflammation, as well as context-dependent risks, including possible deleterious effects in advanced HF or off-target mechanisms. Prior failures of fibrates to improve cardiovascular outcomes in some trials and concerns in PPARα-deficient states underscore the complexity of metabolic therapies in HF. These findings support a more stratified, phenotype-driven approach to therapy. RCTs specifically designed to evaluate HF outcomes are essential to clarify whether PPARα agonists can complement established neurohormonal treatments, particularly in the context of the rising burden of HFpEF associated with obesity and type 2 diabetes. Conclusions: PPARα agonists represent a promising class within the emerging therapeutic framework of metabolic heart failure. They are inexpensive, generally well tolerated, and address several pathophysiological mechanisms of HF. Preliminary evidence suggests that fenofibrate may delay or prevent HF in high-risk diabetic populations. However, rigorous, dedicated trials are needed to establish their clinical utility.

Recent advancements in computed tomography have significantly transformed the clinical application of this technique in diagnosing and managing coronary artery disease (CAD). Computed tomography coronary angiography (CTCA) has emerged as a leading non-invasive imaging modality, often serving as the first-line investigation to exclude obstructive CAD in patients with chronic coronary syndrome. Beyond its utility in diagnosing CAD, CTCA has become instrumental in procedural planning for percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), particularly in complex cases such as left main stem (LMS) interventions, where peri-procedural risks are elevated. This review highlights the evolving role of CTCA in LMS PCI, underscoring its clinical utility in improving procedural precision and, subsequently, patient outcomes. Recent technological advancements, including detailed multiplanar and three-dimensional (3D) reconstructions, CT-derived fractional flow reserve (CTFFR), and the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms, have expanded the capabilities of CTCA. These innovations allow for comprehensive anatomical and functional assessments, enabling precise plaque morphology, lesion complexity, and bifurcation anatomy evaluations alongside PCI simulations. By offering detailed insights into coronary vasculature and lesion characteristics, CTCA provides critical information for optimising LMS PCI strategies. This review explores the current applications and future potential of CTCA in guiding LMS PCI, highlighting its role in improving procedural planning, risk assessment, and overall management of this challenging patient population.

The frequent concurrence of elevated blood pressure (BP) and type 2 diabetes markedly elevates the risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality. In this review, we discuss the evidence supporting the role of BP-lowering therapies in preventing cardiovascular events in people with type 2 diabetes and the most appropriate BP treatment target in these individuals. We outline possible reasons for the heterogeneous effect of BP lowering in patients with and without diabetes and consider several pathophysiological mechanisms that could potentially explain such differences. The review introduces a mediation model, delineating the intricate interplay between hypertension and diabetes and their joint contribution to cardiovascular and renal pathologies. Finally, we outline the role of lifestyle changes and other pharmacological options in attenuating cardiometabolic risks in patients with type 2 diabetes. We propose a comprehensive, patient-centred management strategy, integrating various antihypertensive therapeutic approaches and providing clinicians with a systematic framework for better decision-making.