Larson, Timothy S.

OBJECTIVE—The degree to which chronic glycemic exposure (CGE) (fasting plasma glucose [FPG], HbA1c [A1C], duration of diabetes, age at onset of diabetes, or combinations of these) is associated with or predicts the severity of microvessel complications is unsettled. Specifically, we test whether combinations of components correlate and predict complications better than individual components. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS—Correlations and predictions of CGE and complications were assessed in the Rochester Diabetic Neuropathy Study, a population-based, cross-sectional, and longitudinal epidemiologic survey of 504 patients with diabetes followed for up to 20 years. RESULTS—In multivariate analysis, A1C and duration of diabetes (and to a lesser degree age at onset of diabetes but not FPG) were the main significant CGE risk covariates for complications. A derived glycemic exposure index (GEi) correlated with and predicted complications better than did individual components. Composite or staged measures of polyneuropathy provided higher correlations and better predictions than did dichotomous measures of whether polyneuropathy was present or not. Generally, the mean GEi was significantly higher with increasing stages of severity of complications. CONCLUSIONS—A combination of A1C, duration of diabetes, and age at onset of diabetes (a mathematical index, GEi) correlates significantly with complications and predicts later complications better than single components of CGE. Serial measures of A1C improved the correlations and predictions. For polyneuropathy, continuous or staged measurements performed better than dichotomous judgments. Even with intensive assessment of CGE and complications over long times, only about one-third of the variability of the severity of complications is explained, emphasizing the role of other putative risk covariates.

Purpose The objective of this study was to determine prognostic factors for overall survival in patients with post-transplantation lymphoproliferative disorders (PTLDs). Patients and Methods This study focused on the 107 adult solid organ transplantation patients who were diagnosed with PTLDs at Mayo Clinic (Rochester, MN) between December 1970 and May 2003. Results The median age at the time of diagnosis was 48 years (range, 15 to 75 years). Extranodal disease including grafted organ involvement was present in 85 patients (80%). The graft organ was involved in 30 patients (28%). At the time of these analyses, 62 patients (58%) had died. The median survival for the entire cohort was 31.5 months (95% CI, 10.7 to 72.5 months). The median follow-up of living patients was 51.8 months (range, 5.6 to 202.6 months). In univariate analyses for overall survival from the time of PTLD diagnosis, the following poor prognostic factors were identified: poor performance status with Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group levels 3 and 4 (P < .0001), grafted organ involvement (P = .0005), the presence of one or more extranodal sites (P = .005), both nodal and extranodal disease (P = .002), high International Prognostic Index (P = .006), advanced stage (P = .001), and elevated lactate dehydrogenase (P = .03). A final multivariable model for survival was constructed using three factors: poor performance status (3 to 4), monomorphic disease, and graft organ involvement. Conclusion A prognostic model has been developed for PTLD patients using one center's 30 years of experience. We propose additional confirmation and validation of these prognostic factors in larger prospective studies.