Chaiteerakij, Roongruedee

Abstract Infection is a common cause of death in patients with advanced cirrhosis. We aimed to develop a predictive model in Child–Turcotte–Pugh (CTP) class C cirrhotics hospitalized with infection for optimizing treatment and improving outcomes. Clinical information was retrospectively abstracted from 244 patients at Tianjin Third Central Hospital, China (cohort 1). Factors associated with mortality were determined using logistic regression. The model for predicting 90-day mortality was then constructed by decision tree analysis. The model was further validated in 91 patients at Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN (cohort 2) and 82 patients at Seoul St. Mary's Hospital, Korea (cohort 3). The predictive performance of the model was compared with that of the CTP, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), MELD-Na, Chronic Liver Failure–Sequential Organ Failure Assessment, and the North American consortium for the Study of End-stage Liver Disease (NACSELD) models. The 3-month mortality was 58%, 58%, and 54% in cohort 1, 2, and 3, respectively. In cohort 1, respiratory failure, renal failure, international normalized ratio, total bilirubin, and neutrophil percentage were determinants of 3-month mortality, with odds ratios of 16.6, 3.3, 2.0, 1.1, and 1.03, respectively (P < .05). These parameters were incorporated into the decision tree model, yielding area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) of 0.804. The model had excellent reproducibility in the U.S. (AUROC 0.808) and Korea cohort (AUROC 0.809). The proposed model has the highest AUROC and best Youden index of 0.488 and greatest overall correctness of 75%, compared with other models evaluated. The proposed model reliably predicts survival of advanced cirrhotics with infection in both Asian and U.S. populations.

Abstract Existing antiangiogenic approaches to treat metastatic hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are weakly effectual, prompting further study of tumor angiogenesis in this disease setting. Here, we report a novel role for sulfatase 2 (SULF2) in driving HCC angiogenesis. Sulf2-deficient mice (Sulf2 KO) exhibited resistance to diethylnitrosamine-induced HCC and did not develop metastases like wild-type mice (Sulf2 WT). The smaller and less numerous tumors formed in Sulf2 KO mice exhibited a markedly lower microvascular density. In human HCC cells, SULF2 overexpression increased endothelial proliferation, adhesion, chemotaxis, and tube formation in a paracrine fashion. Mechanistic analyses identified the extracellular matrix protein periostin (POSTN), a ligand of αvβ3/5 integrins, as an effector protein in SULF2-induced angiogenesis. POSTN silencing in HCC cells attenuated SULF2-induced angiogenesis and tumor growth in vivo. The TGFβ1/SMAD pathway was identified as a critical signaling axis between SULF2 and upregulation of POSTN transcription. In clinical HCC specimens, elevated levels of SULF2 correlated with increased microvascular density, POSTN levels, and relatively poorer patient survival. Together, our findings define an important axis controlling angiogenesis in HCC and a mechanistic foundation for rational drug development. Cancer Res; 77(3); 632–45. ©2016 AACR.

Purpose The inclusion of metformin in the treatment arms of cancer clinical trials is based on improved survival that has been demonstrated in retrospective epidemiologic studies; however, unintended biases may exist when analysis is performed by using a conventional Cox proportional hazards regression model with dichotomous ever/never categorization. We examined the impact of metformin exposure definitions, analytical methods, and patient selection on the estimated effect size of metformin exposure on survival in a large cohort of patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Patients and Methods Of newly diagnosed patients with PDAC with diabetes, 980 were retrospectively included, and exposure to metformin documented. Median survival was assessed by using Kaplan-Meier and log-rank methods. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% CIs were computed to compare time-varying covariate analysis with conventional Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. Results Median survival of metformin users versus nonusers was 9.9 versus 8.9 months, respectively. By the time-varying covariate analysis, metformin use was not statistically significantly associated with improved survival (HR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.81 to1.07; P = .28). There was no evidence of benefit in the subset of patients who were naïve to metformin at the time of PDAC diagnosis (most representative of patients enrolled in clinical trials; HR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.80 to 1.30; P = .89); however, when the analysis was performed by using the conventional Cox model, an artificial survival benefit of metformin was detected (HR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.77 to 1.01; P = .08), which suggested biased results from the conventional Cox analysis. Conclusion Our findings did not suggest the benefit of metformin use after patients are diagnosed with PDAC. We highlight the importance of patient selection and appropriate statistical analytical methods when studying medication exposure and cancer survival.

Whether aspirin use is protective against cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) remains unclear. We determined the association between aspirin use and other risk factors for each CCA subtype individually. In a hospital‐based case‐control study, 2395 CCA cases (1169 intrahepatic, 995 perihilar, and 231 distal) seen at the Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, from 2000 through 2014 were enrolled. Controls selected from the Mayo Clinic Biobank were matched two to one with cases by age, sex, race, and residence (n = 4769). Associations between aspirin use, other risk factors, and CCA risk were determined. Aspirin was used by 591 (24.7%) CCA cases and 2129 (44.6%) controls. There was a significant inverse association of aspirin use with all CCA subtypes, with adjusted odds ratios (AORs) of 0.35 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.29‐0.42), 0.34 (95% CI 0.27‐0.42), and 0.29 (95% CI 0.19‐0.44) for intrahepatic, perihilar, and distal CCA, respectively (P < 0.001 for all). Primary sclerosing cholangitis was more strongly associated with perihilar (AOR = 453, 95% CI 104‐999) than intrahepatic (AOR = 93.4, 95% CI 27.1‐322) or distal (AOR = 34.0, 95% CI 3.6‐323) CCA, whereas diabetes was more associated with distal (AOR = 4.2, 95% CI 2.5‐7.0) than perihilar (AOR = 2.9, 95% CI 2.2‐3.8) or intrahepatic (AOR = 2.5, 95% CI 2.0‐3.2) CCA. Cirrhosis not related to primary sclerosing cholangitis was associated with both intrahepatic and perihilar CCA, with similar AORs of 14. Isolated inflammatory bowel disease without primary sclerosing cholangitis was not associated with any CCA subtype. Conclusions: Aspirin use was significantly associated with a 2.7‐fold to 3.6‐fold decreased risk for the three CCA subtypes; our study demonstrates that individual risk factors confer risk of different CCA subtypes to different extents. (Hepatology 2016;64:785‐796)

AbstractGenetic risk factors for cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) remain poorly understood. We assessed the effect of single‐nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of genes modulating inflammation or carcinogenesis on CCA risk and survival. We conducted a case‐control, candidate gene association study of 370 CCA patients and 740 age‐, sex‐, and residential area‐matched healthy controls. Eighteen functional or putatively functional SNPs in nine genes were genotyped. The log‐additive genotype effects of SNPs on CCA risk and survival were determined using logistic regression and the log‐rank test, respectively. Initial analysis identified significant associations between SNP rs2143417 and rs689466 in cyclooxygenase 2 (COX‐2) and CCA risk, after adjusting for multiple comparisons (cutoff of P = 0.0028). However, these findings were not replicated in another independent cohort of 212 CCA cases and 424 matched controls. No significant association was found between any SNP and survival of CCA patients. Although COX‐2 has been shown to contribute to cholangiocarcinogenesis, the COX‐2 SNPs tested were not associated with risk of CCA. This study shows a lack of association between variants of genes related to inflammation and carcinogenesis and CCA risk and survival. Other factors than these genetic variants may play more important roles in CCA risk and survival.

Abstract Background: Epidemiologic studies have suggested that metformin use is associated with cancer death reduction. The results for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) are inconsistent. Retrospective studies of cancer survival may potentially have unintended biases; due to complexities of diabetes management, metformin use exposure is commonly categorized as simply “yes/no.” Nevertheless, in part based on epidemiologic studies, there are at least 20 open cancer clinical trials that include metformin in a treatment arm. We aimed to study metformin use and survival of patients with PDAC, addressing potential inherent biases. Methods: A retrospective cohort study for the years 2000-2011 was conducted using the patient database of the Mayo Clinic Specialized Programs of Research Excellence (SPORE) in Pancreatic Cancer. 1,360 PDAC patients (59% male; mean age 67) with diabetes were studied; overall survival was the primary outcome. Initiation and duration of metformin use was carefully abstracted from medical records. Patients were categorized into 5 groups based on metformin initiation: (A) Never used, n = 908 (reference group); (B) Metformin started &gt;1 year prior to PDAC diagnosis, n = 84; (C) Metformin started within 1 year prior to PDAC diagnosis, n = 212; (D) Metformin started &lt;30 days post-PDAC diagnosis, n = 104; (E) Metformin started &gt;30 days post PDAC diagnosis, n = 34. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (C.I.) for survival differences between groups were computed using Cox proportional hazards models, adjusting for age, sex, disease stage, body mass index, and diagnosis year group. Results: Median survival of patients in Groups B-E was 292 days compared to 308 for Group A; this was not significantly different. However, among 413 resectable patients, metformin users appeared to survive longer than non-users (782 vs. 612 days, p = 0.07). Survival in each group was 308, 245, 249, 243 and 818 days, respectively. Because Group E had already survived &gt;30 days, a bias existed. With Group E excluded, there was no survival difference among the other 4 groups (p = 0.18). Compared to Group A, HR and 95% C.I. for metformin use were 1.08 (0.85-1.37), 0.99 (0.85-1.17), 1.04 (0.83-1.31) and 0.49 (0.33-0.74), for Group B-E, respectively. Conclusions: Our thorough analysis suggests that metformin use does not improve survival of patients with PDAC. The benefit of metformin was observed only in patients who started metformin post-PDAC diagnosis; however, there is an inherent survival bias in this group of patients. Studies of medication exposure and cancer survival warrant very careful and detailed data collection. Researchers should exercise caution when initiating clinical trials based on retrospective epidemiologic studies. Citation Format: Roongruedee Chaiteerakij, David B. Zhen, Patrick A. Burch, Kari G. Chaffee, William R. Bamlet, Ann L. Oberg, Lewis R. Roberts, Gloria M. Petersen. Metformin use does not increase survival of pancreatic cancer patients: A cautionary lesson. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 106th Annual Meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research; 2015 Apr 18-22; Philadelphia, PA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2015;75(15 Suppl):Abstract nr LB-183. doi:10.1158/1538-7445.AM2015-LB-183

Circulating tumor cells (CTCs) in blood are associated with poor survival of patients with breast, prostate, or colon cancer. We hypothesized that CTCs are associated with poor survival of patients with cholangiocarcinoma (CCA). Eighty‐eight patients with CCA were prospectively enrolled at Mayo Clinic Rochester between June 2010 and September 2014. The CellSearch system by Veridex was used for detection of CTCs in peripheral blood. Associations between CTC, patient and tumor characteristics, and survival were examined using the Cox's proportional hazards model. Fifteen patients (17%) were positive for CTC ≥2 and 8 patients (9%) for CTC ≥5. CTCs were associated with tumor extent. CTC ≥2 (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.5; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.1‐5.4; P = 0.02) and CTC ≥5 (HR, 4.1; 95% CI: 1.4‐10.8; P = 0.01) were both independent predictors of survival. In subgroup analyses, CTC ≥2 (HR, 8.2; 95% CI: 1.8‐57.5; P < 0.01) and CTC ≥5 (HR, 7.7; 95% CI: 1.4‐42.9; P = 0.02) were both associated with shorter survival among patients with metastasis. There was a trend toward association of CTC ≥5 with shorter survival in patients with nonmetastatic CCA (HR, 4.3; 95% CI: 1.0‐13.8; P = 0.06). CTC ≥2 (HR, 10.5; 95% CI: 2.2‐40.1; P < 0.01) and CTC ≥5 (HR, 10.2; 95% CI: 1.5‐42.3; P = 0.02) were both associated with shorter survival among patients with perihilar/distal CCA. CTC ≥5 was associated with shorter survival of patients with intrahepatic CCA (HR, 4.2; 95% CI: 1.1‐14.1; P = 0.04). Conclusion: CTCs were associated with more‐aggressive tumor characteristics and independently associated with survival in patients with CCA. Assessment of CTCs may be useful for identifying CCA patients at risk of early mortality. (Hepatology 2016;63:148–158)