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Yazdany, Jinoos

0000-0002-3508-4094

Mayo Clinic

Division of Rheumatology, Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco.

Citations 8

Age‐specific Incidence of Systemic Lupus Erythematosus in the United States: A Meta‐Analysis of Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Lupus Registries
Izmirly, Peter M. , Ferucci, Elizabeth D. , Hersh, Aimee O. , Son, Mary Beth, Lim, S. Sam , Crowson, Cynthia S., Duarte‐García, Alí , Buyon, Jill P., Gold, Heather T. , Dall'Era, Maria, Plantinga, Laura , Somers, Emily C., Parton, Hilary, Izmirly, Peter , Drenkard, Cristina , Duarte-García, Alí , Gold, Heather T , Katz, Patricia , Yazdany, Jinoos , Lim, S Sam , Ferucci, Elizabeth D , Son, Mary Beth F. , Crowson, Cynthia S. , Buyon, Jill P. , Dall’Era, Maria , Katz, Patricia , Yazdany, Jinoos , Somers, Emily C. , Parton, Hilary B.

Arthritis & Rheumatology | August 24, 2026 | Volume: No volume available | Issue: No issue available | Pages: No page available

10.1002/art.70306 Get It

Objective Epidemiologic estimates for age of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) diagnosis are limited, particularly for men and racial and ethnic subpopulations in the United States. Leveraging the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) National Lupus Registry network of population‐based SLE registries, meta‐analyses were performed estimating age‐specific incidence of SLE by sex, race, and ethnicity. Methods The CDC network of SLE registries includes five state‐based registries, plus a sixth Indian Health Service registry. Incidence periods spanned calendar years 2002‐2018. Registries provided age‐specific incidence of SLE, fulfilling the American College of Rheumatology (ACR) SLE classification criteria, per 100,000 person‐years, stratified by sex, race, and ethnicity for the meta‐analyses. Results Incidence rates among women were highest for those aged 30‐39 (12.7, 95%CI: 9.5‐16.8), while rates among men were highest for those aged 60‐69 (2.1, 95%CI: 1.3‐3.4). Black women aged 20‐39 had the highest SLE incidence rates (23.6, 95%CI: 20.7‐26.8). Among women diagnosed with SLE before age 20, incidence was highest among Asian (6.5, 95%CI: 2.8‐15.2) individuals. Among women diagnosed with SLE after age 60, incidence was highest among American Indian/Alaska Native (9.4, 95%CI: 3.4‐15.4) individuals. Weighted percentages show 10.0% of those with SLE were diagnosed before age 20, while 15.1% were diagnosed after age 60. The largest proportion of individuals with SLE, 22.1%, were diagnosed between 30‐39 years. Conclusions This study provides comprehensive sex‐ and race‐specific estimates of age at SLE diagnosis. The substantial later in life SLE incidence among men and disease burden in pediatric and older populations should raise awareness in considering SLE in the differential diagnosis in previously underrecognized groups.
Transcobalamin receptor antibodies in autoimmune vitamin B12 central deficiency
Pluvinage, John V. , Ngo, Thomas , Fouassier, Camille , McDonagh, Maura A. , Holmes, Brandon B. , Bartley, Christopher M. , Kondapavulur, Sravani , Hurabielle, Charlotte , Bodansky, Aaron , Pai, Vincent , Aslanpour, Ava , Alvarenga, Bonny D. , Zamecnik, Colin R. , Asencor, Andoni I., Huynh, Thanh Dat , Browne, Weston, Tubati, Asritha , Haney, Michael S. , Douglas, Vanja C. , Louiné, Martineau , Hauser, Stephen L. , Baranzini, Sergio E. , Wells, James A. , Spudich, Serena , Farhadian, Shelli , Ramachandran, Prashanth , Gillum, Leslie A. , Hales, Chadwick M. , Anderson, Mark S. , Smith, Bryan , Nath, Avindra , Green, Ari , Wilson, Michael R. , McDonagh, Maura , Hinman, Sam , Alvarenga, Bonny D , Zorn, Kelsey C , Zamecnik, Colin , Asencor, Andoni I , Huynh, Trung , Tubati, Asritha , Haney, Michael S , Louine, Martineau , Cree, Bruce Ac , Hauser, Stephen L. , Seeley, William , Baranzini, Sergio E , Wells, James A , Spudich, Serena , Farhadian, Shelli , Ramachandran, Prashanth S , Gillum, Leslie , Zikherman, Julie , Anderson, Mark S , Yazdany, Jinoos , Smith, Bryan , Nath, Avindra , Suh, Gina A , Flanagan, E P , Green, Ari J , Green, Ralph , Gelfand, Jeffrey M , DeRisi, Joseph L , Pleasure, Samuel J , Wilson, Michael R , Pluvinage, John V , Bodansky, Aaron , Hinman, Samuel S. , McCann, Adrian , Cree, Bruce , Seeley, William W. , Yazdany, Jinoos , Suh, Gina A. , Flanagan, Eoin P. , Gelfand, Jeffrey M.

Science Translational Medicine | June 26, 2024 | Volume: 16 | Issue: 753 | Pages: No page available

10.1126/scitranslmed.adl3758 Get It

Vitamin B12 is critical for hematopoiesis and myelination. Deficiency can cause neurologic deficits including loss of coordination and cognitive decline. However, diagnosis relies on measurement of vitamin B12 in the blood, which may not accurately reflect the concentration in the brain. Using programmable phage display, we identified an autoantibody targeting the transcobalamin receptor (CD320) in a patient with progressive tremor, ataxia, and scanning speech. Anti-CD320 impaired cellular uptake of cobalamin (B12) in vitro by depleting its target from the cell surface. Despite a normal serum concentration, B12 was nearly undetectable in her cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). Immunosuppressive treatment and high-dose systemic B12 supplementation were associated with increased B12 in the CSF and clinical improvement. Optofluidic screening enabled isolation of a patient-derived monoclonal antibody that impaired B12 transport across an in vitro model of the blood-brain barrier (BBB). Autoantibodies targeting the same epitope of CD320 were identified in seven other patients with neurologic deficits of unknown etiology, 6% of healthy controls, and 21.4% of a cohort of patients with neuropsychiatric lupus. In 132 paired serum and CSF samples, detection of anti-CD320 in the blood predicted B12 deficiency in the brain. However, these individuals did not display any hematologic signs of B12 deficiency despite systemic CD320 impairment. Using a genome-wide CRISPR screen, we found that the low-density lipoprotein receptor serves as an alternative B12 uptake pathway in hematopoietic cells. These findings dissect the tissue specificity of B12 transport and elucidate an autoimmune neurologic condition that may be amenable to immunomodulatory treatment and nutritional supplementation.
Development of the American College of Rheumatology Patient‐Reported Outcome Quality Measures for Systemic Lupus Erythematosus
Katz, Patricia , Barber, Claire , Duarte‐García, Alí , Garg, Shivani , Machua, Wambui, Rodgers, Wendy, Santiago‐Casas, Yesenia, Suter, Lisa G., Bartels, Christie M. , Yazdany, Jinoos , Katz, Patricia , Barber, Claire E H , Suter, Lisa , Duarte-García, Alí , Yazdany, Jinoos , Bartels, Christie M , Garg, Shivani

Arthritis Care & Research | January 15, 2024 | Volume: 76 | Issue: 6 | Pages: 777-787

10.1002/acr.25301 Get It

Objective As part of a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention–funded American College of Rheumatology (ACR) initiative, we sought to develop quality measures related to Patient Reported Outcome Measure (PROM) use for systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) clinical care. Methods An expert workgroup composed of physician, patient, and researcher representatives convened to identify patient‐reported outcome (PRO) domains of greatest importance to people with SLE. A patient advisory panel separately ranked domains. PROMs assessing priority domains were identified through structured literature review, and detailed psychometric reviews were conducted for each PROM. In a Delphi process, the expert workgroup rated PROMs on content validity, psychometric quality, feasibility of implementation, and importance for guiding patient self‐management. The patient advisory panel reviewed PROMs in parallel and contributed to the final recommendations. Results Among relevant PRO domains, the workgroup and patient partners ranked depression, physical function, pain, cognition, and fatigue as high‐priority domains. The workgroup recommended at least once yearly measurement for (1) assessment of depression using the Patient Health Questionnaire or Patient Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS) depression scales; (2) assessment of physical function using PROMIS physical function scales or the Multi‐Dimensional Health Assessment Questionnaire; and (3) optional assessments of fatigue and cognition. Pain scales evaluated were not found to be sufficiently superior to what is already assessed in most SLE clinic visits. Conclusion Expert workgroup members and patient partners recommend that clinicians assess depression and physical function at least once yearly in all people with SLE. Additional PROMs addressing cognition and fatigue can also be assessed. Next steps are to incorporate PROM‐based quality measures into the ACR The Rheumatology Informatics System for Effectiveness registry.
Impact of Risk Factors on COVID‐19 Outcomes in Unvaccinated People With Rheumatic Diseases: A Comparative Analysis of Pandemic Epochs Using the COVID‐19 Global Rheumatology Alliance Registry
Yazdany, Jinoos , Ware, Anna , Wallace, Zachary S. , Bhana, Suleman , Grainger, Rebecca , Hachulla, É. , Richez, Christophe , Cacoub, P. , Hausmann, Jonathan S. , Sirotich, Emily , Jacobsohn, Lindsay, Strangfeld, Anja , Mateus, Elsa F , Kearsley‐Fleet, Lianne , Schaefer, Martin, Ribeiro, Sandra Lúcia Euzébio , Müller‐Ladner, Ulf , Fraga, Vanessa , Rodrigues, Ana Maria , Sparks, Jeffrey A. , Tidblad, Liselotte , Martínez‐Martínez, Marco Ulises , Xavier, Ricardo Machado , Pera, Mariana , Carrara, Greta , Scirè, Carlo Alberto , Zanetti, Anna , Machado, Pedro , Hachulla, Eric , Cacoub, Patrice , Hyrich, Kimme L , Gossec, Laure , Lawson-Tovey, Saskia , Kearsley-Fleet, Lianne , Schaefer, Martin , Ribeiro, Sandra Lúcia Euzébio , Al-Emadi, Samar , Hasseli, Rebecca , Specker, Christof , Schulze-Koops, Hendrik , Bernardes, Miguel , Fraga, Vanessa Machado , Rodrigues, Ana Maria , Sparks, Jeffrey A , Ljung, Lotta , Di Giuseppe, Daniela , Tidblad, Liselotte , Wise, Leanna M , Duarte-García, Alí , Ugarte-Gil, Manuel F , Colunga-Pedraza, Iris J , Martínez-Martínez, Marco Ulises , Alpízar-Rodríguez, Deshiré , Isnardi, Carolina A , Pera, Mariana , Pons-Estel, Guillermo , Gianfrancesco, Milena A , Carrara, Greta , Scirè, Carlo Alberto , Zanetti, Anna , Machado, Pedro M , Montgomery, Anna , Grainger, Rebecca , Hausmann, Jonathan S , Yazdany, Jinoos , Xavier, Ricardo M , Sirotich, Emily , Strangfeld, Anja , Mateus, Elsa F , Liew, Jean W. , Hyrich, Kimme L , Gossec, Laure , Carmona, Loreto , Lawson‐Tovey, Saskia , Hasseli, Rebecca , Wise, Leanna , Duarte‐García, Alí , Ugarte‐Gil, Manuel F. , Colunga-Pedraza, I. J. , Alpizar-Rodriguez, D. , Pons‐Estel, Guillermo , Izadi, Zara

Arthritis Care & Research | August 29, 2023 | Volume: 76 | Issue: 2 | Pages: 274-287

10.1002/acr.25220 Get It

ObjectiveApproximately one third of individuals worldwide have not received a COVID‐19 vaccine. Although studies have investigated risk factors linked to severe COVID‐19 among unvaccinated people with rheumatic diseases (RDs), we know less about whether these factors changed as the pandemic progressed. We aimed to identify risk factors associated with severe COVID‐19 in unvaccinated individuals in different pandemic epochs corresponding to major variants of concern.MethodsPatients with RDs and COVID‐19 were entered into the COVID‐19 Global Rheumatology Alliance Registry between March 2020 and June 2022. An ordinal logistic regression model (not hospitalized, hospitalized, and death) was used with date of COVID‐19 diagnosis, age, sex, race and/or ethnicity, comorbidities, RD activity, medications, and the human development index (HDI) as covariates. The main analysis included all unvaccinated patients across COVID‐19 pandemic epochs; subanalyses stratified patients according to RD types.ResultsAmong 19,256 unvaccinated people with RDs and COVID‐19, those who were older, male, had more comorbidities, used glucocorticoids, had higher disease activity, or lived in lower HDI regions had worse outcomes across epochs. For those with rheumatoid arthritis, sulfasalazine and B‐cell–depleting therapy were associated with worse outcomes, and tumor necrosis factor inhibitors were associated with improved outcomes. In those with connective tissue disease or vasculitis, B‐cell–depleting therapy was associated with worse outcomes.ConclusionRisk factors for severe COVID‐19 outcomes were similar throughout pandemic epochs in unvaccinated people with RDs. Ongoing efforts, including vaccination, are needed to reduce COVID‐19 severity in this population, particularly in those with medical and social vulnerabilities identified in this study.
Development of American College of Rheumatology Quality Measures for Systemic Lupus Erythematosus: A Modified Delphi Process With Rheumatology Informatics System for Effectiveness (RISE) Registry Data Review
Bartels, Christie M. , Jorge, April , Feldman, Candace H. , Zell, JoAnn, Bermas, Bonnie L. , Barber, Claire , Duarte‐García, Alí , Garg, Shivani , Haseley, Leah A., Jatwani, Shraddha , Johansson, Tracy, Limanni, Alex, Rodgers, Wendy, Santiago‐Casas, Yesenia, Suter, Lisa G., Ude, Jennifer, Aguirre, Alfredo , Li, Jing , Schmajuk, Gabriela , Bermas, Bonnie , Barber, Claire E H , Rovin, Brad H , Barnado, April , Aguirre, Alfredo , Li, Jing , Schmajuk, Gabriela , Yazdany, Jinoos , Duarte-García, Alí , Bartels, Christie M , Garg, Shivani , Rovin, Brad H. , Barnado, April , Ude, Jennifer, Yazdany, Jinoos

Arthritis Care & Research | May 11, 2023 | Volume: 75 | Issue: 11 | Pages: 2295-2305

10.1002/acr.25143 Get It

ObjectiveWe aimed to develop readily measurable digital quality measure statements for clinical care in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) using a multistep process guided by consensus methods.MethodsUsing a modified Delphi process, an American College of Rheumatology (ACR) workgroup of SLE experts reviewed all North American and European guidelines from 2000 to 2020 on treatment, monitoring, and phenotyping of patients with lupus. Workgroup members extracted quality constructs from guidelines, rated these by importance and feasibility, and generated evidence‐based quality measure statements. The ACR Rheumatology Informatics System for Effectiveness (RISE) Registry was queried for measurement data availability. In 3 consecutive Delphi sessions, a multidisciplinary Delphi panel voted on the importance and feasibility of each statement. Proposed measures with consensus on feasibility and importance were ranked to identify the top 3 measures.ResultsReview of guidelines and distillation of 57 quality constructs resulted in 15 quality measure statements. Among these, 5 met high consensus for importance and feasibility, including 2 on treatment and 3 on laboratory monitoring measures. The 3 highest‐ranked statements were recommended for further measure specification as SLE digital quality measures: 1) hydroxychloroquine use, 2) limiting glucocorticoid use >7.5 mg/day to <6 months, and 3) end‐organ monitoring of kidney function and urine protein excretion at least every 6 months.ConclusionThe Delphi process selected 3 quality measures for SLE care on hydroxychloroquine, glucocorticoid reduction, and kidney monitoring. Next, measures will undergo specification and validity testing in RISE and US rheumatology practices as the foundation for national implementation and use in quality improvement programs.image
Association Between Race/Ethnicity and COVID‐19 Outcomes in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Patients From the United States: Data From the COVID‐19 Global Rheumatology Alliance
Ugarte‐Gil, Manuel F. , Alarcón, Graciela S. , Seet, Andrea M. , Izadi, Zara , Montgomery, Anna , Duarte‐García, Alí , Gilbert, Emily, Valenzuela-Almada, Maria O , Wise, Leanna , Sparks, Jeffrey A. , Hsu, Tiffany , Sirotich, Emily , Hausmann, Jonathan S. , Sufka, Paul , Grainger, Rebecca , Bhana, Suleman , Wallace, Zachary S. , Jacobsohn, Lindsay, Strangfeld, Anja , Mateus, Elsa F , Hyrich, Kimme L , Gossec, Laure , Lawson‐Tovey, Saskia , Kearsley‐Fleet, Lianne , Schaefer, Martin, Machado, Pedro , Schäfer, Martin , Ware, Anna , Gilbert, Emily L , Hsu, Tiffany Y-T , D'Silva, Kristin M , Patel, Naomi J , Sirotich, Emily , Liew, Jean , Hausmann, Jonathan S , Sufka, Paul , Grainger, Rebecca , Bhana, Suleman , Wallace, Zachary S , Strangfeld, Anja , Mateus, Elsa F , Hyrich, Kimme L , Gossec, Laure , Carmona, Loreto , Lawson-Tovey, Saskia , Kearsley-Fleet, Lianne , Schaefer, Martin , Machado, Pedro M , Robinson, Philip C , Gianfrancesco, Milena A , Yazdany, Jinoos , Alarcón, Graciela S. , Sparks, Jeffrey A , Duarte-García, Alí , Ugarte-Gil, Manuel F , Wise, Leanna M , Liew, Jean W. , Carmona, Loreto , Robinson, Philip C. , Yazdany, Jinoos

Arthritis Care & Research | October 14, 2022 | Volume: 75 | Issue: 1 | Pages: 53-60

10.1002/acr.25039 Get It

ObjectiveTo determine the association between race/ethnicity and COVID‐19 outcomes in individuals with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE).MethodsIndividuals with SLE from the US with data entered into the COVID‐19 Global Rheumatology Alliance registry between March 24, 2020 and August 27, 2021 were included. Variables included age, sex, race, and ethnicity (White, Black, Hispanic, other), comorbidities, disease activity, pandemic time period, glucocorticoid dose, antimalarials, and immunosuppressive drug use. The ordinal outcome categories were: not hospitalized, hospitalized with no oxygenation, hospitalized with any ventilation or oxygenation, and death. We constructed ordinal logistic regression models evaluating the relationship between race/ethnicity and COVID‐19 severity, adjusting for possible confounders.ResultsWe included 523 patients; 473 (90.4%) were female and the mean ± SD age was 46.6 ± 14.0 years. A total of 358 patients (74.6%) were not hospitalized; 40 patients (8.3%) were hospitalized without oxygen, 64 patients (13.3%) were hospitalized with any oxygenation, and 18 (3.8%) died. In a multivariable model, Black (odds ratio [OR] 2.73 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.36–5.53]) and Hispanic (OR 2.76 [95% CI 1.34–5.69]) individuals had higher odds of more severe outcomes than White individuals.ConclusionBlack and Hispanic individuals with SLE experienced more severe COVID‐19 outcomes, which is consistent with findings in the US general population. These results likely reflect socioeconomic and health disparities and suggest that more aggressive efforts are needed to prevent and treat infection in this population.
Characteristics and Outcomes of People With Gout Hospitalized Due to COVID‐19: Data From the COVID‐19 Global Rheumatology Alliance Physician‐Reported Registry
Jatuworapruk, Kanon , Montgomery, Anna , Conway, Richard , Durcan, Laura, Graef, Elizabeth R. , Jayatilleke, Arundathi , Keen, Helen , Kilian, Adam , Young, Kristen , Cogo, Adriana Karina , Gossec, Laure , Hasseli, Rebecca , Hyrich, Kimme L , Malcata, Armando, Mateus, Elsa F , Schäfer, Martin , Scirè, Carlo Alberto , Sparks, Jeffrey A. , Strangfeld, Anja , Xavier, Ricardo Machado , Bhana, Suleman , Gore‐Massy, Monique , Hausmann, Jonathan S. , Sirotich, Emily , Sufka, Paul , Wallace, Zach, Machado, Pedro , Grainger, Rebecca , Ware, Anna , Gianfrancesco, Milena A , Conway, Richard , Durcan, Laura , Graef, Elizabeth R , Jayatilleke, Arundathi , Keen, Helen , Kilian, Adam , Young, Kristen J , Carmona, Loreto , Cogo, Adriana Karina , Duarte-García, Alí , Gossec, Laure , Hasseli, Rebecca , Hyrich, Kimme L , Langlois, Vincent , Lawson-Tovey, Saskia , Schaefer, Martin , Scirè, Carlo Alberto , Sigurdardottir, Valgerdur , Sparks, Jeffrey A , Xavier, Ricardo M , Bhana, Suleman , Hausmann, Jonathan S , Liew, Jean , Sirotich, Emily , Sufka, Paul , Wallace, Zachary S , Machado, Pedro M , Yazdany, Jinoos , Grainger, Rebecca , Robinson, Philip C , Strangfeld, Anja , Mateus, Elsa F , Carmona, Loreto , Duarte‐García, Alí , Lawson‐Tovey, Saskia , Liew, Jean W. , Yazdany, Jinoos , Robinson, Philip C.

ACR Open Rheumatology | August 24, 2022 | Volume: 4 | Issue: 11 | Pages: 948-953

10.1002/acr2.11495 Get It

ObjectiveTo describe people with gout who were diagnosed with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) and hospitalized and to characterize their outcomes.MethodsData on patients with gout hospitalized for COVID‐19 between March 12, 2020, and October 25, 2021, were extracted from the COVID‐19 Global Rheumatology Alliance registry. Descriptive statistics were used to describe the demographics, comorbidities, medication exposures, and COVID‐19 outcomes including oxygenation or ventilation support and death.ResultsOne hundred sixty‐three patients with gout who developed COVID‐19 and were hospitalized were included. The mean age was 63 years, and 85% were male. The majority of the group lived in the Western Pacific Region (35%) and North America (18%). Nearly half (46%) had two or more comorbidities, with hypertension (56%), cardiovascular disease (28%), diabetes mellitus (26%), chronic kidney disease (25%), and obesity (23%) being the most common. Glucocorticoids and colchicine were used pre‐COVID‐19 in 11% and 12% of the cohort, respectively. Over two thirds (68%) of the cohort required supplemental oxygen or ventilatory support during hospitalization. COVID‐19‐related death was reported in 16% of the overall cohort, with 73% of deaths documented in people with two or more comorbidities.ConclusionThis cohort of people with gout and COVID‐19 who were hospitalized had high frequencies of ventilatory support and death. This suggests that patients with gout who were hospitalized for COVID‐19 may be at risk of poor outcomes, perhaps related to known risk factors for poor outcomes, such as age and presence of comorbidity.
Development of a Prediction Model for COVID‐19 Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome in Patients With Rheumatic Diseases: Results From the Global Rheumatology Alliance Registry
Izadi, Zara , Aguirre, Alfredo , Hyrich, Kimme L , Gossec, Laure , Carmona, Loreto , Lawson‐Tovey, Saskia , Kearsley‐Fleet, Lianne , Schaefer, Martin, Seet, Andrea M. , Schmajuk, Gabriela , Jacobsohn, Lindsay, Rush, Stephanie, Sparks, Jeffrey A. , Hsu, Tiffany , Gilbert, Emily, Valenzuela-Almada, Maria O , Ugarte‐Gil, Manuel F. , Ribeiro, Sandra Lúcia Euzébio , Marinho, Adriana de Oliveira , Valadares, Lílian David de Azevedo , Hasseli, Rebecca , Richter, Jutta , Schmeiser, Tim , Torres, Alvaro Andres Reyes , Alle, Gelsomina , Saurit, Verónica , Zanetti, Anna , Carrara, Greta , Labreuche, Julien , Barnetche, Thomas , Hérasse, Muriel, Plassart, Samira, Santos, María José , Machado, Pedro , Sirotich, Emily , Hausmann, Jonathan S. , Sufka, Paul , Grainger, Rebecca , Bhana, Suleman , Costello, Wendy, Wallace, Zachary S. , Registry, Global Rheumatology Alliance, Schäfer, Martin , Gianfrancesco, Milena A , Aguirre, Alfredo , Lawson-Tovey, Saskia , Kearsley-Fleet, Lianne , Schaefer, Martin , Schmajuk, Gabriela , Katz, Patricia , Al-Emadi, Samar , Sparks, Jeffrey A , Wise, Leanna M , Duarte-García, Alí , Ribeiro, Sandra Lúcia Euzébio , Pfeil, Alexander , Santos, Maria José , Robinson, Philip C , Machado, Pedro M , Hausmann, Jonathan S , Grainger, Rebecca , Yazdany, Jinoos , Ugarte-Gil, Manuel F , Carmona, Loreto , Gossec, Laure , Hasseli, Rebecca , Hyrich, Kimme L , Sirotich, Emily , Hsu, Tiffany Y-T , Mateus, Elsa F , Strangfeld, Anja , Mateus, Elsa F , Katz, Patricia , Patel, Naomi J , Wise, Leanna , Duarte‐García, Alí , Di Giuseppe, Daniela , Isnardi, Carolina A , Saurit, Verónica , Khaldi-Plassart, Samira , Rodrigues, Ana Maria , Robinson, Philip C. , Liew, Jean W. , Yazdany, Jinoos , Registry, Global Rheumatology Alliance

ACR Open Rheumatology | July 23, 2022 | Volume: 4 | Issue: 10 | Pages: 872-882

10.1002/acr2.11481 Get It

ObjectiveSome patients with rheumatic diseases might be at higher risk for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We aimed to develop a prediction model for COVID‐19 ARDS in this population and to create a simple risk score calculator for use in clinical settings.MethodsData were derived from the COVID‐19 Global Rheumatology Alliance Registry from March 24, 2020, to May 12, 2021. Seven machine learning classifiers were trained on ARDS outcomes using 83 variables obtained at COVID‐19 diagnosis. Predictive performance was assessed in a US test set and was validated in patients from four countries with independent registries using area under the curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. A simple risk score calculator was developed using a regression model incorporating the most influential predictors from the best performing classifier.ResultsThe study included 8633 patients from 74 countries, of whom 523 (6%) had ARDS. Gradient boosting had the highest mean AUC (0.78; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.67‐0.88) and was considered the top performing classifier. Ten predictors were identified as key risk factors and were included in a regression model. The regression model that predicted ARDS with 71% (95% CI: 61%‐83%) sensitivity in the test set, and with sensitivities ranging from 61% to 80% in countries with independent registries, was used to develop the risk score calculator.ConclusionWe were able to predict ARDS with good sensitivity using information readily available at COVID‐19 diagnosis. The proposed risk score calculator has the potential to guide risk stratification for treatments, such as monoclonal antibodies, that have potential to reduce COVID‐19 disease progression.