Shawcross, Debbie Lindsay

INTRODUCTION: Alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) is a severe condition with high short-term mortality. Identifying key predictors of poor outcomes is critical for guiding therapeutic strategies. Mean arterial pressure (MAP), a key determinant of tissue perfusion and systemic hemodynamics, may play a pivotal role in prognosis. METHODS: We analyzed a multicenter, prospective cohort of 323 patients hospitalized with AH, with validation in an independent cohort of 290 patients. Survival was evaluated using Kaplan-Meier curves and compared with the log-rank (Mantel-Cox) test. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios for mortality, adjusted for Model for end stage liver disease score. Mechanistic insights were explored through assessment of cardiovascular biomarkers. RESULTS: A baseline MAP <80 mm Hg was associated with significantly higher mortality at both 28 days (27.3% vs 8.0%) and 90 days (40.3% vs 15.6%; P < 0.001 for both). This association persisted after adjusting for Model for end stage liver disease score, age, and baseline hepatic encephalopathy. The incidence of infections during follow-up was similar across MAP groups (27.6% vs 22.8%), but acute kidney injury occurred more frequently in the MAP <80 mm Hg group (62% vs 38%, P < 0.001). In the validation cohort, patients with MAP <80 mm Hg also demonstrated significantly lower 28-day transplant-free survival. Although B-type natriuretic peptide and plasma renin levels were altered in patients with AH, they did not correlate with MAP values. DISCUSSION: A baseline MAP <80 mm Hg is an independent predictor of short-term and mid-term mortality in patients with AH. Strategies aimed at restoring hemodynamic stability may improve outcomes in this high-risk population.

Background:Alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) is associated with significant mortality. Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score is used to predict short-term mortality and aid in treatment decisions. MELD is frequently updated in the course of AH. However, once the most updated MELD is known, it is uncertain if previous ones still have prognostic value, which might be relevant for transplant allocation and trial design. We aimed to investigate the predictive performance of updated MELDs in a prospectively collected cohort of patients with AH by the InTeam consortium.Methods:Three hundred seven patients (with 859 MELD values within 60 d of admission) fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The main endpoint was time to death or transplant up to 90 days. We used a joint model approach to assess the predictive value of updated MELDs.Results:Updated MELD measurements had a strong prognostic value for death/transplant (HR: 1.20, 95% CI: 1.14–1.27) (p< 0.0001). Previous MELD values did not add predictive value to the most current MELD. We also showed that MELD at day 28 (MELD28) had a significant predictive value for subsequent mortality/transplant in a landmark analysis (HR: 1.18, 95% CI: 1.12–1.23). We show that the use of an ordinal scale including death, transplant, and MELD28 as a trial outcome could substantially reduce the sample size required to demonstrate short-term benefit of an intervention.Conclusion:We show that updated MELDs during the trajectory of AH predict subsequent mortality or the need for transplant. MELD28 inclusion in an ordinal outcome (together with death or transplant) could increase the efficiency of randomized controlled trials.

Objective Alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) ranges from never-decompensated ALD (ndALD) to the life-threatening decompensated phenotype, known as alcohol-related hepatitis (AH). A multidimensional study of the clinical, histological and molecular features of these subtypes is lacking. Design Two large cohorts of patients were recruited in an international, observational multicentre study: a retrospective cohort of patients with ndALD (n=110) and a prospective cohort of patients with AH (n=225). Clinical, analytical, immunohistochemistry and hepatic RNA microarray analysis of both disease phenotypes were performed. Results Age and mean alcohol intake were similar in both groups. AH patients had greater aspartate amino transferase/alanine amino transferase ratio and lower gamma-glutamyl transferase levels than in ndALD patients. Patients with AH demonstrated profound liver failure and increased mortality. One-year mortality was 10% in ndALD and 50% in AH. Histologically, steatosis grade, ballooning and pericellular fibrosis were similar in both groups, while advanced fibrosis, Mallory-Denk bodies, bilirubinostasis, severe neutrophil infiltration and ductular reaction were more frequent among AH patients. Transcriptome analysis revealed a profound gene dysregulation within both phenotypes when compare to controls. While ndALD was characterised by deregulated expression of genes involved in matrisome and immune response, the development of AH resulted in a marked deregulation of genes involved in hepatocyte reprogramming and bile acid metabolism. Conclusions Despite comparable alcohol intake, AH patients presented with worse liver function compared with ndALD patients. Bilirubinostasis, severe fibrosis and ductular reaction were prominent features of AH. AH patients exhibited a more profound deregulation of gene expression compared with ndALD patients.