Shi, Qian

AbstractA well‐designed pilot study can advance science by providing essential preliminary data to support or motivate further research, refine study logistics, and demonstrate proof of concept. Often, the outcomes of such studies can be quantified by a success/failure dichotomy. For example, a novel compound may show activation of a neural pathway, or it may not. When an intervention's efficacy is quantified using a dichotomous outcome, probability mass functions can be enumerated to determine the probability that the observed result from a pilot study supports further evaluation of the intervention since there is only a finite, and often small, number of sample configurations possible. The purpose of this research was to determine the probability of an “efficacy signal” for pilot studies using one‐ and two‐sample pilot study designs. Efficacy signal was defined as the probability of observing a more favorable response proportion relative to a historical control (one‐sample setting) or to a concurrent control (two‐sample setting). An enumeration study (exact simulation) was conducted to calculate the efficacy signal probability. One‐sample study designs yielded higher probability of determining an efficacy signal than the two‐sample setting; however, sampling variation must be accounted for. A 68% score confidence interval is recommended for this purpose.

Purpose By using data from North Central Cancer Treatment Group Phase III Trial N0147, a randomized adjuvant trial of patients with stage III colon cancer, we assessed the relationship between smoking and cancer outcomes, disease-free survival (DFS), and time to recurrence (TTR), accounting for heterogeneity by patient and tumor characteristics. Patients and Methods Before random assignment to infusional fluorouracil, leucovorin, and oxaliplatin (FOLFOX) or FOLFOX plus cetuximab, 1,968 participants completed a questionnaire on smoking history and other risk factors. Cox models assessed the association between smoking history and the primary trial outcome of DFS (ie, time to recurrence or death), as well as TTR, adjusting for other clinical and patient factors. The median follow-up was 3.5 years among patients who did not experience events. Results Compared with never-smokers, ever smokers experienced significantly shorter DFS (3-year DFS proportion: 70% v 74%; hazard ratio [HR], 1.21; 95% CI, 1.02 to 1.42). This association persisted after multivariate adjustment (HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.02 to 1.49). There was significant interaction in this association by BRAF mutation status (P = .03): smoking was associated with shorter DFS in patients with BRAF wild-type (HR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.11 to 1.66) but not BRAF mutated (HR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.50 to 1.29) colon cancer. Smoking was more strongly associated with poorer DFS in those with KRAS mutated versus KRAS wild-type colon cancer (HR, 1.50 [95% CI, 1.12 to 2.00] v HR, 1.09 [95% CI, 0.85 to 1.39]), although interaction by KRAS mutation status was not statistically significant (P = .07). Associations were comparable in analyses of TTR. Conclusion Overall, smoking was significantly associated with shorter DFS and TTR in patients with colon cancer. These adverse relationships were most evident in patients with BRAF wild-type or KRAS mutated colon cancer.

Purpose There is increasing recognition of the existence of intratumoral heterogeneity of the human epidermal growth factor receptor (HER2), which affects interpretation of HER2 positivity in clinical practice and may have implications for patient prognosis and treatment. We determined the frequency and prognostic impact of heterogeneous HER2 gene amplification and polysomy 17 in patients with esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). Patients and Methods HER2 amplification (by fluorescence in situ hybridization) was examined in surgical EAC specimens (n = 675). HER2 heterogeneity was defined according to consensus guidelines as gene amplification (HER2/CEP17 ratio ≥ 2.0) in more than 5% but less than 50% of cancer cells. No patient received neoadjuvant or HER2-targeted therapy. Cox models were used to assess disease-specific survival (DSS) and overall survival (OS). Results Overall, 117 EACs (17%) demonstrated HER2 amplification, of which 20 (17%) showed HER2 heterogeneity. All HER2-heterogeneous tumors were amplified. Among HER2-amplified tumors, heterogeneous tumors had significantly higher frequency of poor histologic grade and polysomy 17. In multivariable models that included number of metastatic lymph nodes, grade, tumor stage, and polysomy 17, only HER2 heterogeneity and node number were prognostic among HER2-amplified tumors, with heterogeneity showing worse DSS (hazard ratio, 2.04; 95% CI, 1.09 to 3.79; P = .025) and OS (P = .026). Among HER2-nonamplified EACs, polysomy 17 was independently associated with worse DSS (P = .012) and OS (P = .023). Conclusion Among HER2-amplified EACs, 17% show HER2 heterogeneity, which independently predicts for worse cancer-specific death. Among HER2-nonamplified EACs, polysomy 17 is independently associated with worse survival. These novel findings demonstrate aggressive subgroups in HER2-amplified and -nonamplified EACs that have important implications for HER2 analysis and determination of benefit from HER2-targeted therapy.

Purpose Limited data exist regarding the outcomes of adjuvant therapy in younger patients with stage II and III colon cancer. We examined disease-free survival (DFS), overall survival (OS), recurrence-free interval (RFI), and grade 3+ adverse events (AEs) in younger patients in the 33,574 patient Adjuvant Colon Cancer Endpoints Group data set. Patients and Methods Individual patient data from 24 randomized phase III clinical trials were obtained for survival outcomes, which included 10 clinical trials for AE outcomes. Two age-based cutoff points were used to define younger patients: age younger than 40 years and younger than 50 years. Adjuvant therapy benefit analyses were limited to the nine clinical trials in which the investigational chemotherapeutic arm demonstrated benefit. Results One thousand seven hundred fifty-eight patients (5.2%) were younger than 40 years, 5,817 patients (17.3%) were younger than 50 years, and only 299 patients (0.9%) were younger than 30 years. No meaningful differences in sex or stage were noted in younger versus older patients. Younger and older patients did not differ in RFI (age, < 40 years: hazard ratio [HR], 1.0; P = .62 and age < 50 years: HR, 1.02; P = .35). Younger patients (both cutoff points), had longer OS and DFS than older patients. In trials demonstrating adjuvant therapy benefit, similar DFS benefit was observed by age. Younger patients experienced less leukopenia and stomatitis, but more frequent nausea/vomiting. Conclusion Among patients on clinical trials, younger and older patients with stage II and III colon cancer had similar RFI and adjuvant therapy benefit. Younger patients have longer OS and DFS, which is likely primarily because of fewer competing causes of death. Adjuvant therapy is beneficial for colon cancer in patients younger than 50 years who meet typical clinical trial eligibility criteria.

Multiple testing and its impact on the type I and type II error rates are frequently discussed in the statistical and biomedical literature. The Bonferroni adjustment is one of the most widely used approaches, yet it suffers from poor statistical performance when there are correlated test statistics. For example, it is criticized to be too conservative. Nonetheless, part of the strong appeal of the Bonferroni approach is the straightforward implementation and relatively intuitive explanation. In this manuscript, a novel adaptation to the traditional Bonferroni approach that accounts for correlated data is proposed. A simple correction factor based on intraclass correlation is applied to the standard Bonferroni method to overcome the shortcomings of the standard Bonferroni adjustment yet maintains its advantages. The method is motivated by an early phase clinical trial examining the effect of a study medication on marijuana craving, which is commonly quantified into four correlated constructs. A detailed simulation study demonstrated that the proposed approach is statistically sound and appropriate for a wide range of common settings. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Abstract Purpose: We examined the frequency, tumor characteristics, and prognostic impact of HER2 protein expression and gene amplification in patients with curatively resected esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). Experimental Design: HER2 expression was analyzed by immunohistochemistry (IHC) in surgical EAC specimens (n = 713). Gene amplification was examined by FISH in a large subset (n = 344). Most tumors were T3–4 (66%) or node positive (72%); 95% were located in the esophagus or gastroesophageal junction. No patient received neoadjuvant therapy. Cox models were used. Results: Overall, 17% of EACs were HER2 positive (i.e., IHC3+ or IHC2+ with amplification), with strong agreement between HER2 amplification (HER2/CEP17 ratio ≥2) and expression (κ = 0.83). HER2 positivity was significantly associated with lower tumor grade, less invasiveness, fewer malignant nodes, and the presence of adjacent Barrett's esophagus (BE). EACs with BE had higher odds of HER2 positivity than EACs without BE, independent of pathologic features [OR = 1.8 (95% CI: 1.1–2.8), P = 0.014]. Among all cases, HER2 positivity was significantly associated with disease-specific survival (DSS) in a manner that differed by the presence or absence of BE (Pinteraction = 0.0047). In EACs with BE, HER2 positivity was significantly associated with improved DSS [HR = 0.54 (95% CI: 0.35–0.84), P = 0.0065] and overall survival (P = 0.0022) independent of pathologic features, but was not prognostic among EACs without BE. Conclusions: HER2 positivity was shown in 17% of resected EACs and associated with reduced tumor aggressiveness. EACs with BE had nearly twice the odds of being HER2 positive and, within this subgroup, HER2 positivity was independently associated with improved survival. Clin Cancer Res; 18(2); 546–54. ©2012 AACR.

Purpose Symptoms and complications of metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) differ by metastatic sites. There is a paucity of prospective survival data for patients with peritoneal carcinomatosis colorectal cancer (pcCRC). We characterized outcomes of patients with pcCRC enrolled onto two prospective randomized trials of chemotherapy and contrasted that with other manifestations of mCRC (non-pcCRC). Methods A total of 2,095 patients enrolled onto two prospective randomized trials were evaluated for overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). A Cox proportional hazard model was used to assess the adjusted associations. Results The characteristics of the pcCRC group (n = 364) were similar to those of the non-pcCRC patients in median age (63 v 61 years, P = .23), sex (57% males v 61%, P = .23), and performance status (Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status 0 or 1 94% v 96%, P = .06), but differed in frequency of liver (63% v 82%, P < .001) and lung metastases (27% v 34%, P = .01). Median OS (12.7 v 17.6 months, hazard ratio [HR] = 1.3; 95% CI, 1.2 to 1.5; P < .001) and PFS (5.8 v 7.2 months, HR = 1.2; 95% CI, 1.1 to 1.3; P = .001) were shorter for pcCRC versus non-pcCRC. The unfavorable prognostic influence of pcCRC remained after adjusting for age, PS, liver metastases, and other factors (OS: HR = 1.3, P < .001; PFS: HR = 1.1, P = .02). Infusional fluorouracil, leucovorin, and oxaliplatin was superior to irinotecan, leucovorin, and fluorouracil as a first-line treatment among pcCRC (HR for OS = 0.62, P = .005) and non-pcCRC patients (HR = 0.66, P < .001). Conclusion pcCRC is associated with a significantly shorter OS and PFS as compared with other manifestations of mCRC. Future trials for mCRC should consider stratifying on the basis of pcCRC status.

A two‐stage model for evaluating both trial‐level and patient‐level surrogacy of correlated time‐to‐event endpoints has been introduced, using patient‐level data when multiple clinical trials are available. However, the associated maximum likelihood approach often suffers from numerical problems when different baseline hazards among trials and imperfect estimation of treatment effects are assumed. To address this issue, we propose performing the second‐stage, trial‐level evaluation of potential surrogates within a Bayesian framework, where we may naturally borrow information across trials while maintaining these realistic assumptions. Posterior distributions on surrogacy measures of interest may then be used to compare measures or make decisions regarding the candidacy of a specific endpoint. We perform a simulation study to investigate differences in estimation performance between traditional maximum likelihood and new Bayesian representations of common meta‐analytic surrogacy measures, while assessing sensitivity to data characteristics such as number of trials, trial size, and amount of censoring. Furthermore, we present both frequentist and Bayesian trial‐level surrogacy evaluations of time to recurrence for overall survival in two meta‐analyses of adjuvant therapy trials in colon cancer. With these results, we recommend Bayesian evaluation as an attractive and numerically stable alternative in the multitrial assessment of potential surrogate endpoints. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Purpose Given that smoking affects body mass index (BMI) and survival, stratification by smoking status may be required to determine the true prognostic impact of BMI. Although obesity increases risk for developing esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), the prognostic influence of obesity and its potential modification by smoking status is unknown in this disease. Patients and Methods All patients (N = 778) underwent potentially curative esophagectomy. BMI was calculated using measured height and weight at surgery and categorized as obese (≥ 30 kg/m 2 ), overweight (25 to 29.9 kg/m 2 ), or normal (18.5 to 24.9 kg/m 2 ). Cigarette smoking was categorized as never or ever. The association of BMI with disease-specific survival (DSS), disease-free survival (DFS), and overall survival (OS) was determined by Cox regression. Results Excess BMI was significantly associated with DSS in a manner that differed substantially by smoking status (P for interaction = .023). Among never smokers, obesity was significantly associated with adverse DSS (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.11; 95% CI, 1.31 to 3.43; P = .002), DFS (HR = 2.03; 95% CI, 1.30 to 3.18; P = .002), and OS (HR = 1.97; 95% CI, 1.24 to 3.14; P = .004), as compared with normal weight, after adjusting for covariates. By contrast, among ever smokers, obesity was not prognostic, and overweight status was significantly associated with favorable survival in univariate, but not multivariate, analysis. Conclusion Obesity among never smokers was independently associated with two-fold worsening of DSS, DFS, and OS after surgery for EAC, after adjusting for known prognostic factors. These data, in one of the largest reported resected EAC cohorts, are the first to show an adverse prognostic impact of obesity in EAC.