Pellikka, Patricia A

Background— The long-term prognosis of patients who develop carcinoid heart disease and the effect of cardiac surgery on outcome are not well established. Methods and Results— In this retrospective study, we identified 200 patients with carcinoid syndrome referred for echocardiography in whom the diagnosis of carcinoid heart disease was confirmed. Patients were divided into 3 groups of similar size according to the date from first diagnosis of carcinoid heart disease. Group A comprised patients diagnosed from 1981 through June 1989; group B, diagnosed July 1989 through May 1995; and group C, June 1995 through 2000. The end point was all-cause mortality. Median survival was significantly lower in group A (1.5 years, 95% CI 1.1 to 1.9 years) compared with groups B (3.2, 95% CI 1.3 to 5.1 years) and C (4.4, 95% CI 2.4 to 7.1 years; P =0.009). In a multivariate model adjusted for treatment and clinical characteristics, the risk of death in groups B (hazard ratio 0.67, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.99, P =0.04) and C (hazard ratio 0.61, 95% CI 0.39 to 0.92, P =0.006) was significantly reduced relative to group A. Cardiac surgery was performed in 87 patients. When cardiac surgery was included as a time-dependent covariate in a multivariate analysis, it was associated with a risk reduction of 0.48 (95% CI 0.31 to 0.73, P <0.001), whereas the time period of diagnosis was no longer significant. Conclusions— The prognosis of patients with recognized carcinoid heart disease has improved over the past 2 decades at our institution. This change in survival may be related to valve replacement surgery.

Background— This study assessed the long-term outcome of a large, asymptomatic population with hemodynamically significant aortic stenosis (AS). Methods and Results— We identified 622 patients with isolated, asymptomatic AS and peak systolic velocity ≥4 m/s by Doppler echocardiography who did not undergo surgery at the initial evaluation and obtained follow-up (5.4±4.0 years) in all. Mean age (±SD) was 72±11 years; there were 384 (62%) men. The probability of remaining free of cardiac symptoms while unoperated was 82%, 67%, and 33% at 1, 2, and 5 years, respectively. Aortic valve area and left ventricular hypertrophy predicted symptom development. During follow-up, 352 (57%) patients were referred for aortic valve surgery and 265 (43%) patients died, including cardiac death in 117 (19%). The 1-, 2-, and 5-year probabilities of remaining free of surgery or cardiac death were 80%, 63%, and 25%, respectively. Multivariate predictors of all-cause mortality were age (hazard ratio [HR], 1.05; P <0.0001), chronic renal failure (HR, 2.41; P =0.004), inactivity (HR, 2.00; P =0.001), and aortic valve velocity (HR, 1.46; P =0.03). Sudden death without preceding symptoms occurred in 11 (4.1%) of 270 unoperated patients. Patients with peak velocity ≥4.5 m/s had a higher likelihood of developing symptoms (relative risk, 1.34) or having surgery or cardiac death (relative risk, 1.48). Conclusions— Most patients with asymptomatic, hemodynamically significant AS will develop symptoms within 5 years. Sudden death occurs in ≈1%/y. Age, chronic renal failure, inactivity, and aortic valve velocity are independently predictive of all-cause mortality.

Background— In this study we evaluate the diastolic deformation of ischemic/reperfused myocardium and relate this deformation to tissue elastic properties. Methods and Results— Farm pigs were subjected to left anterior descending coronary artery occlusion followed by reperfusion to create either stunning (n=12) or transmural myocardial infarction (n=12). Ultrasound-derived radial strain rates (SR) and strain were measured in the ischemic and remote walls. Myocardial stiffness was estimated from diastolic pressure–wall thickness relationship obtained from preload alterations. At reperfusion, end-systolic strain (ε sys ) was significantly reduced in both stunned and infarcted walls compared with their remote walls (3±3% versus 26±2% and 1±0% versus 33±5%, respectively; P <0.0001) or baseline values. Diastolic passive deformation (ε A ) and rates of deformation during early (E SR ) and late (A SR ) diastole were comparable between stunned and remote walls (ε A : 7.3±1.6% versus 7.9±1.9%; E SR : −2.7±0.4 s −1 versus −2.6±0.5 s −1 ; A SR : −1.8±0.2 s −1 versus −1.9±0.3 s −1 ; P =NS for all) but were of significantly lower magnitude in infarcted walls versus remote walls (ε A : 1.1±0.2% versus 11.4±1.9%; E SR : −0.3±0.1 s −1 versus −2.4±0.4 s −1 ; A SR : −0.3±0.1 s −1 versus −2.5±0.4 s −1 ; P <0.0001 for all). Stiffness coefficient of exponential diastolic pressure–wall thickness relation was higher for infarcted ( P <0.05) but not for stunned walls ( P =NS) compared with their remote walls. Conclusions— Early after postischemic reperfusion and in the presence of severely reduced systolic deformation, diastolic passive deformation (and rates of deformation) can distinguish stiff, noncompliant, transmurally infarcted myocardial walls from those more compliant walls containing viable but stunned myocardium.

Background— After acute myocardial infarction (AMI), diastolic function assessed by Doppler echocardiography provides important prognostic information that is incremental to systolic function. However, Doppler variables are affected by multiple factors and may change rapidly. In contrast, left atrial (LA) volume is less influenced by acute changes and reflects subacute or chronic diastolic function. This may be of importance when one assesses risk in patients with AMI. Methods and Results— Three hundred fourteen patients with AMI who had a transthoracic echocardiogram with assessment of left ventricular (LV) systolic and diastolic function and measurement of LA volume during admission were identified. The LA volume was corrected for body surface area, and the population was divided according to LA volume index of 32 mL/m 2 (2 SDs above normal). LA volume index was >32 mL/m 2 in 142 (45%). The primary study end point was all-cause mortality. During follow-up of 15 (range 0 to 33) months, 46 patients (15%) died. LA volume index was a powerful predictor of mortality and remained an independent predictor (hazard ratio 1.05 per 1-mL/m 2 change, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.06, P <0.001) after adjustment for clinical factors, LV systolic function, and Doppler-derived parameters of diastolic function. Conclusions— Increased LA volume index is a powerful predictor of mortality after AMI and provides prognostic information incremental to clinical data and conventional measures of LV systolic and diastolic function.