Fleisher, Martin

INTRODUCTION: Modeling supporting recommendations for colonoscopy and stool-based colorectal cancer (CRC) screening tests assumes 100% sequential participant adherence. The impact of observed adherence on the long-term effectiveness of screening is unknown. We evaluated the effectiveness of a program of screening colonoscopy every 10 years vs annual high-sensitivity guaiac-based fecal occult blood testing (HSgFOBT) using observed sequential adherence data. METHODS: The MIcrosimulation SCreening ANalysis (MISCAN) model used observed sequential screening adherence, HSgFOBT positivity, and diagnostic colonoscopy adherence in HSgFOBT-positive individuals from the National Colonoscopy Study (single-screening colonoscopy vs ≥4 HSgFOBT sequential rounds). We compared CRC incidence and mortality over 15 years with no screening or 10 yearly screening colonoscopy vs annual HSgFOBT with 100% and differential observed adherence from the trial. RESULTS: Without screening, simulated incidence and mortality over 15 years were 20.9 (95% probability interval 15.8–26.9) and 6.9 (5.0–9.2) per 1,000 participants, respectively. In the case of 100% adherence, only screening colonoscopy was predicted to result in lower incidence; however, both tests lowered simulated mortality to a similar level (2.1 [1.6–2.9] for screening colonoscopy and 2.5 [1.8–3.4] for HSgFOBT). Observed adherence for screening colonoscopy (83.6%) was higher than observed sequential HSgFOBT adherence (73.1% first round; 49.1% by round 4), resulting in lower simulated incidence and mortality for screening colonoscopy (14.4 [10.8–18.5] and 2.9 [2.1–3.9], respectively) than HSgFOBT (20.8 [15.8–28.1] and 3.9 [2.9–5.4], respectively), despite a 91% adherence to diagnostic colonoscopy with FOBT positivity. The relative risk of CRC mortality for screening colonoscopy vs HSgFOBT was 0.75 (95% probability interval 0.68–0.80). Findings were similar in sensitivity analyses with alternative assumptions for repeat colonoscopy, test performance, risk, age, and projection horizon. DISCUSSION: Where sequential adherence to stool-based screening is suboptimal and colonoscopy is accessible and acceptable—as observed in the National Colonoscopy Study—offering screening colonoscopy can increase screening effectiveness.

Abstract A drug-induced apoptosis assay, termed the microculture-kinetic (MiCK) assay, has been developed. Blinded clinical trials have shown higher response rates and longer survival in groups of patients with acute myelocytic leukemia and epithelial ovarian cancer who have been treated with drugs that show high apoptosis in the MiCK assay. Unblinded clinical trials in multiple tumor types have shown that the assay will be used frequently by clinicians to determine treatment, and when used, results in higher response rates, longer times to relapse, and longer survivals. Model economic analyses suggest possible cost savings in clinical use based on increased generic drug use and single-agent substitution for combination therapies. Two initial studies with drugs in development are promising. The assay may help reduce costs and speed time to drug approval. Correlative studies with molecular biomarkers are planned. This assay may have a role both in personalized clinical therapy and in more efficient drug development. Cancer Res; 72(16); 3901–5. ©2012 AACR.