Mathis, Kellie L.

BACKGROUND: Surgical management of Crohn’s disease of the colon and rectum frequently requires total proctocolectomy with end ileostomy. There are limited data on the need for Crohn’s disease–directed therapy and the prevalence of recurrence after surgery. OBJECTIVE: To determine the risk of small-bowel Crohn’s disease recurrence and evaluate risk factors for postoperative recurrence after total proctocolectomy with end ileostomy. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTINGS: Multistate tertiary health care system. PATIENTS: Adult patients with Crohn’s disease undergoing total proctocolectomy with end ileostomy between 2014 and 2023. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was small-bowel Crohn’s disease recurrence. RESULTS: A total of 193 patients with a median age of 45 years (interquartile range, 34–61) were included. More than half of the patients (n = 102; 52.9%) had a history of small-bowel Crohn’s disease, and the majority (n = 134; 69.4%) received biologic therapy before surgery. The median follow-up time was 4.8 years (interquartile range, 2.0–7.6). Postoperatively, 30.6% of patients (n = 59) received biologic therapy. Thirty-five patients (18.1%) had small-bowel Crohn’s disease recurrence for an estimated 5-year recurrence-free rate of 80.2% (95% CI, 73.0–85.7). Seven patients (3.6%) developed small-bowel Crohn’s disease recurrence requiring surgery for an estimated 5-year surgical recurrence-free rate of 94.7% (95% CI, 89.0–97.5). On multivariable analysis, history of small-bowel Crohn’s disease (HR 2.17; 95% CI‚ 1.04–4.54) and diagnosis at age younger than 18 years (HR 2.31; 95% CI‚1.1–4.86) were associated with small-bowel Crohn’s disease recurrence. LIMITATIONS: Retrospective design and nonstandardized follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Patients undergoing total proctocolectomy with end ileostomy for Crohn’s disease have approximately a 20% risk of small-bowel recurrence at 5 years but a low risk of requiring surgical intervention. Patients with a history of small-bowel Crohn’s disease and younger age at diagnosis have a higher risk of recurrence and may warrant consideration of more frequent surveillance and medical prophylaxis. See Video Abstract . FACTORES DE RIESGO DE RECURRENCIA DE LA ENFERMEDAD DE CROHN DEL INTESTINO DELGADO DESPUÉS DE UNA PROCTOCOLECTOMÍA TOTAL ANTECEDENTES: El tratamiento quirúrgico de la enfermedad de Crohn del colon y el recto frecuentemente requiere proctocolectomía total con ileostomía terminal. Existe información limitada sobre la necesidad de terapia dirigida a la enfermedad de Crohn y la prevalencia de recurrencia tras la cirugía. OBJETIVO: Determinar el riesgo de recurrencia de la enfermedad de Crohn del intestino delgado y evaluar los factores de riesgo de recurrencia posoperatoria tras proctocolectomía total con ileostomía terminal. DISEÑO: Estudio de cohorte retrospectivo. ÁMBITO: Sistema de atención médica terciaria multiestatal. PACIENTES: Pacientes adultos con enfermedad de Crohn sometidos a proctocolectomía total con ileostomía terminal entre 2014 y 2023. PRINCIPALES MEDIDAS DE RESULTADO: El resultado primario fue la recurrencia de la enfermedad de Crohn del intestino delgado. RESULTADOS: Se incluyeron un total de 193 pacientes con una mediana de edad de 45 años (RIC, 34-61). Más de la mitad de los pacientes (n = 102, 52,9 %) tenían antecedentes de enfermedad de Crohn del intestino delgado y la mayoría (n = 134, 69,4 %) recibieron terapia biológica antes de la cirugía. El tiempo medio de seguimiento fue de 4,8 años (RIC, 2,0-7,6). Después de la cirugía, el 30,6 % de los pacientes (n = 59) recibieron terapia biológica. Treinta y cinco pacientes (18,1 %) tuvieron recurrencia de la enfermedad de Crohn del intestino delgado para una tasa estimada libre de recurrencia a 5 años del 80,2 % (IC del 95 %, 73,0-85,7). Siete pacientes (3,6 %) desarrollaron recurrencia de la enfermedad de Crohn del intestino delgado que requirió cirugía para una tasa estimada libre de recurrencia quirúrgica a 5 años del 94,7 % (IC del 95 %, 89,0-97,5). En el análisis multivariable, los antecedentes de enfermedad de Crohn del intestino delgado (HR 2,17; IC del 95%: 1,04-4,54) y el diagnóstico antes de los 18 años (HR 2,31; IC del 95%: 1,1-4,86) se asociaron con la recurrencia de la enfermedad de Crohn del intestino delgado. LIMITACIONES: Diseño retrospectivo y seguimiento no estandarizado. CONCLUSIONES: Los pacientes sometidos a proctocolectomía total con ileostomía terminal por enfermedad de Crohn tienen aproximadamente un 20% de riesgo de recurrencia en el intestino delgado a los 5 años, pero un bajo riesgo de requerir intervención quirúrgica. Los pacientes con antecedentes de enfermedad de Crohn del intestino delgado y menor edad al diagnóstico tienen un mayor riesgo de recurrencia y podrían requerir una vigilancia más frecuente y profilaxis médica. (AI-generated translation )

Objective: To develop a predictive model for pathological complete response (pCR) after total neoadjuvant therapy (TNT) to inform selection for watch-and-wait (W/W). Summary Background Data: Patient selection for W/W after TNT for locally advanced rectal cancer remains challenging. Methods: An ensemble of tabular foundation models was fine-tuned in adults with clinical stage II or III microsatellite stable primary rectal adenocarcinoma undergoing TNT and total mesorectal excision (TNT+TME) from 2018-2023 to predict pCR, using pre-TNT, post-TNT and pre-TME variables. This model was externally validated on patients having TNT and W/W (TNT+W/W) to predict persistent clinical complete response (pcCR; the absence of local regrowth, distant metastases, or persistent near-cCR). Area under the receiver operator curve (AUROC), area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC), and Brier score were calculated with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results: Among 308 patients that underwent TNT+TME (median age 56; 40% female), the model predicted pCR with an AUROC 0.71 (95% CI 0.65-0.77), AUPRC 0.44 (95% CI 0.35-0.57), and was well calibrated with a Brier score of 0.17 (95% CI 0.15-0.20). At external validation in a cohort of 83 patients that are being managed with TNT+W/W (median age 57; 37% female), the model predicted pcCR with an AUROC 0.69 (95% CI 0.57-0.82), AUPRC 0.90 (95% CI 0.82-0.96), and Brier score of 0.30 (95% CI 0.26-0.33), improving to 0.17 with recalibration. Conclusions: This novel predictive model demonstrated good discrimination and calibration for pCR after TNT+TME with utility in TNT+W/W for pcCR after appropriate recalibration, supporting its application for W/W patient selection.