Perry, William R. G.

Objective: To develop a predictive model for pathological complete response (pCR) after total neoadjuvant therapy (TNT) to inform selection for watch-and-wait (W/W). Summary Background Data: Patient selection for W/W after TNT for locally advanced rectal cancer remains challenging. Methods: An ensemble of tabular foundation models was fine-tuned in adults with clinical stage II or III microsatellite stable primary rectal adenocarcinoma undergoing TNT and total mesorectal excision (TNT+TME) from 2018-2023 to predict pCR, using pre-TNT, post-TNT and pre-TME variables. This model was externally validated on patients having TNT and W/W (TNT+W/W) to predict persistent clinical complete response (pcCR; the absence of local regrowth, distant metastases, or persistent near-cCR). Area under the receiver operator curve (AUROC), area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC), and Brier score were calculated with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results: Among 308 patients that underwent TNT+TME (median age 56; 40% female), the model predicted pCR with an AUROC 0.71 (95% CI 0.65-0.77), AUPRC 0.44 (95% CI 0.35-0.57), and was well calibrated with a Brier score of 0.17 (95% CI 0.15-0.20). At external validation in a cohort of 83 patients that are being managed with TNT+W/W (median age 57; 37% female), the model predicted pcCR with an AUROC 0.69 (95% CI 0.57-0.82), AUPRC 0.90 (95% CI 0.82-0.96), and Brier score of 0.30 (95% CI 0.26-0.33), improving to 0.17 with recalibration. Conclusions: This novel predictive model demonstrated good discrimination and calibration for pCR after TNT+TME with utility in TNT+W/W for pcCR after appropriate recalibration, supporting its application for W/W patient selection.