Vachon, C M

7518 Background: Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) is common, yet only a minority progress to malignant plasma-cell disorders. Mayo risk stratification uses baseline factors and is commonly implemented/validated in a Cox proportional hazards (CoxPH) framework, which may miss prognostic longitudinal patterns. Methods: We assembled 15,158 MGUS patients with longitudinal laboratory data and progression outcomes (smoldering multiple myeloma, multiple myeloma, AL amyloidosis, or Waldenström macroglobulinemia). We compared a Mayo-factor Cox proportional hazards (CoxPH) baseline versus STRaTS, a transformer-based survival model, to predict progression risk at 3-, 5-, and 10-year horizons. STRaTS leveraged longitudinal trajectories of routine labs including hemoglobin, platelets, differential counts (neutrophils/lymphocytes/monocytes), immunoglobulins (IgG/IgA/IgM), free light chains (kappa/lambda), M-spike, and creatinine. To minimize bias, we used laboratory results collected from 1–3 years after diagnosis and started follow-up at year 3; patients progressing before year 3 or lacking follow-up beyond year 3 were excluded. A total of 7,305 patients met eligibility and were split into train/validation/test cohorts of 4,383/1,461/1,461. Discrimination was assessed by concordance index (C-index). Clinical operating performance was evaluated on a held-out test cohort by comparing sensitivity and specificity at the same proportion of patients selected for intensified surveillance (same workload). Results: Among MGUS patients with complete baseline Mayo factors(N=3,388), Kaplan–Meier–estimated 3-/5-/10-year cumulative progression risk was 0.1/0.4/3.4% (Low), 3.0/4.3/7.9% (Low-Intermediate), 4.4/6.4/14.1% (High-Intermediate), and 8.9/12.5/16.9% (High). On a held-out test cohort, STRaTS demonstrated superior discrimination versus the Mayo-factor CoxPH (C-index 0.75 vs 0.538; p<0.0001). Both models were trained and evaluated on identical train/test splits. At the same surveillance workload, STRaTS achieved higher sensitivity with comparable specificity; when 40.3% of patients were selected for closer surveillance, 3-year sensitivity was 81.0% for STRaTS versus 47.6% for CoxPH (Table). Conclusions: Among MGUS patients who remain progression-free at 3 years, transformer-based survival modeling of longitudinal laboratory trajectories provides more accurate individualized conditional progression risk estimates and improved workload-matched identification of progressors compared with the conventional Mayo/Cox approach. Sensitivity/specificity (%). Operating Point Flagged % STRaTS Sens / Spec (%) CoxPH Sens / Spec (%) Int+High, 3y 40.3 81.0 / 58.5 47.6 / 58.9 Int+High, 5y 40.3 81.2 / 60.4 46.9 / 58.8 Int+High, 10y 40.3 25.0 / 56.3 23.8 / 58.7 Two-Group High (≥2 factors), 5y 5.6 37.4 / 93.4 35.4 / 93.1

Summary Evidence for an association between insulin‐like growth factors (IGF) and multiple myeloma (MM) is inconsistent. We examined total IGF‐I concentrations and risk of MM by combining baseline serological data among UK Biobank participants ( n = 444 187; 732 incident MM) with a two‐sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis using identified genetic variants associated with circulating total IGF‐I and IGF‐binding protein 3 (IGFBP‐3) in the InterLymph consortium (2434 MM and their 2567 controls). Finally, additional lymphoid neoplasm (LN) subtypes were included for comparison with the main hypothesis. Circulating IGF‐I level was positively associated with MM risk Hazard ratio‐HR‐per one standard deviation‐SD‐increase (HR 1‐SD = 1.11, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.01–1.22; p ‐value = 0.03), especially closer to diagnosis. Genetically inferred IGF‐I levels were associated with increased MM risk (odds ratio [OR] = 1.27, 95% CI: 1.05–1.54) but not with any other LNs. Genetically inferred IGFBP‐3 levels showed no associations with any LN evaluated. Corroborating previous findings, in a secondary analysis, IGF‐I levels were associated with the risk of chronic lymphocytic leukaemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma (CLL/SLL) in males with higher body mass index (HR 1‐SD in obese male = 1.36, 95% CI: 1.14–1.61). Our serological and MR analyses suggest a contributing role of IGF‐I in the susceptibility of MM; the CLL/SLL findings warrant further investigation considering sex‐specific adiposity.