Melton, L. Joseph

OBJECTIVE: Chronic hyperglycemia relates to the occurrence of diabetic polyneuropathy (DPN), but has not yet been shown to relate to its overall severity In addition, the degree and duration of hyperglycemia, which measure of chronic hyperglycemia is most predictive of defined levels of severity of DPN, and which other putative risk factors are involved remain unknown. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: In a longitudinal study of 264 diabetic individuals in Rochester, MN, risk factors and other diabetic complications assessed at regular intervals during an average of approximately 7 years were tested for their association with a composite score of severity of DPN at the last examination. RESULTS: In multivariate analysis, diabetic retinopathy severity level (at last examination), mean ln(24-h proteinuria x duration of diabetes), and mean GHb were the main covariates for severity of DPN (R2 = 0.33). Excluding markers of microvessel and macrovessel disease, the independent risk factors were mean In(GHb x duration of diabetes), GHb, and type of diabetes (R2 = 0.23). CONCLUSIONS: We found that diabetic microvessel disease, chronic hyperglycemia exposure, and type of diabetes are associated with severity of DPN, and we believe these factors are implicated in its cause. Each of the five markers of microvessel disease was a strong covariate for severity of DPN. Mean GHb predicts severity of DPN better than duration of diabetes, and the latter predicts severity of DPN better than mean fasting plasma glucose. Knowing the severity of microvessel disease, the degree of chronic hyperglycemia exposure, and the type of diabetes provides useful information to evaluate whether a coexisting polyneuropathy and its severity is probably due to diabetes.

OBJECTIVE The American Diabetes Association (ADA) has recommended that the fasting plasma glucose (FPG) level used to diagnose diabetes be changed from 7.8 mmol/l (the level recommended by the National Diabetes Data Group [NDDG] in 1979) to 7.0 mmol/l. We examined the impact of this change on rates of progression to overt diabetes from different levels of FPG. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Using the laboratory database of Mayo Clinic, we assembled a cohort of 8,098 nondiabetic Olmsted County residents 40 years of age or older on 1 July 1983. Subjects were followed for a median of 9 years. RESULTS Among 7,567 individuals with follow-up FPG data, 778 (10.3%) progressed to ADA diabetes and 513 (6.8%; P < 0.0001) progressed to NDDG diabetes. The risk of developing ADA diabetes was 7, 19, and 39% for individuals with initial FPG values in the ranges of <5.6, 5.6–6.0, and 6.1–6.9 mmol/l, respectively. For progression to NDDG diabetes, the respective risks were 3, 11, and 25%. A clear gradient of risk was observed within the “normal” range of FPG (<5.6 mmol/l). Among the 793 individuals who developed ADA diabetes, 222 (29%) developed NDDG diabetes simultaneously and 291 (37%) developed NDDG diabetes later. In all FPG subgroups, progression to ADA diabetes occurred ∼7 years sooner than progression to NDDG diabetes. CONCLUSIONS The baseline level of FPG is a major predictor of an individual's risk of developing diabetes. The proposed change in the diagnostic criteria for diabetes will lead to earlier diagnosis among individuals who are destined to develop the disease.

OBJECTIVE—The degree to which chronic glycemic exposure (CGE) (fasting plasma glucose [FPG], HbA1c [A1C], duration of diabetes, age at onset of diabetes, or combinations of these) is associated with or predicts the severity of microvessel complications is unsettled. Specifically, we test whether combinations of components correlate and predict complications better than individual components. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS—Correlations and predictions of CGE and complications were assessed in the Rochester Diabetic Neuropathy Study, a population-based, cross-sectional, and longitudinal epidemiologic survey of 504 patients with diabetes followed for up to 20 years. RESULTS—In multivariate analysis, A1C and duration of diabetes (and to a lesser degree age at onset of diabetes but not FPG) were the main significant CGE risk covariates for complications. A derived glycemic exposure index (GEi) correlated with and predicted complications better than did individual components. Composite or staged measures of polyneuropathy provided higher correlations and better predictions than did dichotomous measures of whether polyneuropathy was present or not. Generally, the mean GEi was significantly higher with increasing stages of severity of complications. CONCLUSIONS—A combination of A1C, duration of diabetes, and age at onset of diabetes (a mathematical index, GEi) correlates significantly with complications and predicts later complications better than single components of CGE. Serial measures of A1C improved the correlations and predictions. For polyneuropathy, continuous or staged measurements performed better than dichotomous judgments. Even with intensive assessment of CGE and complications over long times, only about one-third of the variability of the severity of complications is explained, emphasizing the role of other putative risk covariates.

Abstract An abnormal serum immunoglobulin free light chain (FLC) ratio at diagnosis may identify risk of progression to myeloma in patients with solitary bone plasmacytoma (SBP). In the cohort of 116 patients, 43 have progressed to myeloma, with a median time to progression of 1.8 years. The FLC ratio was determined in all 116 patients on serum collected at time of diagnosis and was abnormal in 54 patients (47%). An abnormal FLC ratio was associated with a higher risk of progression to myeloma (P = .039). The risk of progression at 5 years was 44% in patients with an abnormal serum FLC ratio at diagnosis compared with 26% in those with a normal FLC ratio. One to 2 years following diagnosis, a persistent serum M protein level of 5 g/L (0.5 g/dL) or higher was an additional risk factor for progression. A risk stratification model was constructed using the 2 variables of FLC ratio and M protein level: patients with a normal FLC ratio at baseline and M protein level less than 5 g/L (0.5 g/dL) at 1 to 2 years following diagnosis (low risk, n = 31); with either risk factor abnormal (intermediate risk, n = 26); and with both an abnormal FLC ratio and M protein level of 5 g/L (0.5 g/dL) or higher (high risk, n = 18). The corresponding progression rates at 5 years were significantly different in the low, intermediate, and high groups: 13%, 26%, and 62%, respectively (P < .001).

Abstract To assess fractures in monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS), the precursor of multiple myeloma, we followed 488 Olmsted County, MN, residents with MGUS in a retrospective cohort study. There was a 2.7-fold increase in the risk of axial fractures but no increase in limb fractures. The pathophysiologic basis for the increased axial fractures should be determined. Introduction: Multiple myeloma is often preceded by monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS). Fractures are common in myeloma as a result of lytic bone lesions, generalized bone loss, and elevated bone turnover from excessive cytokine production. Whether fractures are also increased in MGUS is unknown. Materials and Methods: In a population-based retrospective cohort study, 488 Olmsted County, MN, residents with MGUS first diagnosed in 1960–1994 (52% men; mean age, 71.4 ± 12.8 years) were followed for 3901 person-years; follow-up was censored at progression to myeloma. The relative risk of fractures was assessed by standardized incidence ratios (SIRs), and risk factors were evaluated in proportional hazards models. Results and Conclusions: Altogether, 200 patients experienced 385 fractures. Compared with expected rates in the community, statistically significant increases were seen for fractures at most axial sites, for example, vertebrae (SIR, 6.3; 95% CI, 5.2–7.5). There was a slight increase in hip (SIR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.2–2.2) but not distal forearm fractures (SIR, 0.8; 95% CI, 0.4–1.5). The relative risk (SIR) of any axial fracture was 2.7 (95% CI, 2.3–3.1) compared with only 1.1 (95% CI, 0.9–1.4) for all limb fractures combined. In a multivariate analysis, the independent predictors of any subsequent fracture were age (hazard ratio [HR] per 10-year increase, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.2–1.6) and corticosteroid use (HR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.2–2.6); greater weight at diagnosis (HR per 10 kg, 0.8; 95% CI, 0.8–0.9), and IgG monoclonal protein (HR, 0.7; 95% CI, 0.5–0.97) were protective. Baseline monoclonal protein level, a determinant of myeloma progression, did not predict fracture risk. Thus, the risk of axial, but not peripheral, fractures is increased among MGUS patients even before progression to myeloma. The pathophysiologic basis for this should be determined because elevated bone turnover, for example, might be treatable.

Abstract Pathologic fractures, especially of the axial skeleton, are extremely common in patients with multiple myeloma and cluster around the time of diagnosis. Osteoporotic fractures seem to be less of a problem in these patients. Introduction: It is generally believed that fractures are common in patients with multiple myeloma as a result of lytic bone lesions, generalized bone loss, and/or elevated bone turnover from excessive cytokine production, but the actual risk of pathologic versus osteoporotic fractures has not been quantified. Materials and Methods: In a population-based retrospective cohort study, 165 Olmsted County, MN, residents with myeloma diagnosed from 1945 to 2001 (55% men; mean age, 70.7 ± 11.1 years) were followed for 537 person-years. The relative risk of fractures was assessed by standardized incidence ratios (SIRs), and risk factors were evaluated in proportional hazards models. Results: Altogether, 134 patients experienced 463 fractures. In the year before diagnosis, 16 times more fractures were observed than expected, mostly pathologic fractures of the vertebrae and ribs. Subsequently, there was a 9-fold increase in fracture risk. However, 69% of these fractures were pathologic, and another 11% were found incidentally on myeloma monitoring. With the latter two groups excluded, subsequent fracture risk was elevated 3-fold, with a 2-fold increase in the risk of an osteoporotic fracture. In multivariate analyses, the predictors of overall fracture risk were oral corticosteroid use and elevated serum calcium levels, whereas pathologic fractures were additionally predicted by use of chemotherapy. Conclusion: There is a dramatic increase in fractures around the time of diagnosis of myeloma, most of which are pathologic fractures. The most important predictor of overall fracture risk is oral corticosteroid use.

Abstract We report a 4-year randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial in 236 normal postmenopausal women (mean age ± SE, 66.3 ± 0.2 years) who were randomized to a calcium (1600 mg/day as the citrate) or placebo group. The women were seen every 6 months; 177 completed the trial. Net percentage changes in each group are given relative to baseline. The differences in net percentage changes (calcium group minus placebo group) in medians were: for lumbar spine bone density, 2.0% (p &lt; 0.001) at year 1 and 0.3% (not significant) at year 4; for proximal femur bone density, 1.3% (p = 0.003) at year 1 and 1.3% (p = 0.015) at year 4; and for total body bone mineral, 0.4% (p = 0.002) at year 1 and 0.9% (p = 0.017) at year 4. Similar differences at year 4 were: −18.9% (p = 0.002) for parathyroid hormone (PTH), −11.9% (p = 0.026) for serum osteocalcin, and −32.2% (p = 0.003) for urine free pyridinoline. We conclude that long-term administration of calcium supplements to elderly women partially reverses age-related increases in serum PTH level and bone resorption and decreases bone loss. However, the effects on bone loss were weaker than those reported for estrogen, bisphosphonates, or calcitonin therapy, indicating that calcium supplements alone cannot substitute for these in treating established osteoporosis. Nonetheless, because of their safety, high tolerance, and low expense, calcium supplements may be a useful preventive measure for elderly postmenopausal women whose bone mineral density values are normal for their age.