Gadano, Adrián

INTRODUCTION: Nosocomial infections (NIs) in cirrhosis are associated with high mortality but could be preventable. Logistic regression (LR) models have failed to identify high-risk patients. We aimed to develop machine learning (ML) models to predict NI. METHODS: The CLEARED consortium consists of prospectively enrolled cirrhosis inpatients from >120 centers. Using day-of-admission clinical data, 3 ML approaches (random forest [RF], extreme gradient boosting, and neural networks [NNs]) were used to predict NI. Data were split 80:20 for training and testing stratified by the outcome. Models were compared using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). RESULTS: In total, 8,263 patients (55.90 ± 13.34 years; 64.1% men) from 127 centers in 37 countries were included. NI developed in 869 (10.5%), a median of 6 (4–11) days of postadmission. Major NIs were respiratory (29.6%) and urinary tract infection (15.7%), and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (13.5%). NIs occurred more frequently in patients from low/low-middle income countries and those with severe liver disease, alcohol etiology, and admission infections. NIs were associated with inpatient mortality (31.9% vs 8.1%, P < 0.001) and liver transplantation (4.8% vs 1.9%, P < 0.001). Although the RF model (AUC 0.69) showed good calibration (Brier score 0.09), outperforming extreme gradient boosting, neural network, and LR models (AUC 0.66 for all; LR comparison P = 0.043), no model achieved AUC ≥0.80 for clinical utility. At 10% predicted probability threshold, the RF model demonstrated only 75.4% sensitivity, 52.9% specificity, and 15.9% positive predictive value (PPV). DISCUSSION: NIs cannot be accurately predicted from day-of-admission data using ML models, even in a large, prospective, global cirrhosis cohort. Every hospitalized patient with cirrhosis should receive protocolized infection control measures.

Background and Aims: With distinct mechanisms of action, the combination of tropifexor (TXR) and cenicriviroc (CVC) may provide an effective treatment for NASH. This randomized, multicenter, double-blind, phase 2b study assessed the safety and efficacy of TXR and CVC combination, compared with respective monotherapies. Approach and Results: Patients (N = 193) were randomized 1:1:1:1 to once-daily TXR 140 μg (TXR140), CVC 150 mg (CVC), TXR 140 μg + CVC 150 mg (TXR140 + CVC), or TXR 90 μg + CVC 150 mg (TXR90 + CVC) for 48 weeks. The primary and secondary end points were safety and histological improvement, respectively. Rates of adverse events (AEs) were similar across treatment groups. Pruritus was the most frequently experienced AE, with highest incidence in the TXR140 group (40.0%). In TXR and combination groups, alanine aminotransferase (ALT) decreased from baseline to 48 weeks (geometric mean change: −21%, TXR140; −16%, TXR140 + CVC; −13%, TXR90 + CVC; and +17%, CVC). Reductions in body weight observed at week 24 (mean changes from baseline: TXR140, −2.5 kg; TXR140 + CVC, −1.7 kg; TXR90 + CVC, −1.0 kg; and CVC, −0.1 kg) were sustained to week 48. At least 1-point improvement in fibrosis stage/steatohepatitis resolution without worsening of fibrosis was observed in 32.3%/25.8%, 31.6%/15.8%, 29.7%/13.5%, and 32.5%/22.5% of patients in the TXR140, CVC, TXR140 + CVC, and TXR90 + CVC groups, respectively. Conclusions: The safety profile of TXR + CVC combination was similar to respective monotherapies, with no new signals. TXR monotherapy showed sustained ALT and body weight decreases. No substantial incremental efficacy was observed with TXR + CVC combination on ALT, body weight, or in histological end points compared with monotherapy.

AbstractAdvanced cirrhosis is often complicated by a multi organ failure syndrome which involves many different organs besides the liver. The high morbidity and mortality secondary to this clinical setting is often related to renal dysfunction, either alone or, more frequently, in combination with other organ dysfunction. A clear defintion of renal dysfunction, an accurate differential diagnostic process of its different phenotypes as well as of full understanding of its pathophysiological mechanisms are crucial to the development of strategies for the management of this complication. This article is based either on the more recent knowledge on renal dysfunction in advanced cirrhosis or current opinions among the members of the International Club of Ascites (ICA) on the management of this complication, obtained through a survey and discussed during the EASL‐ICA Joint Meeting in Berlin in March 2011. It reviews critically our current knowledge and it outlines future perspectives, on the management of renal dysfunction in patients with cirrhosis.