Rooke, Thom W.

Background: Patients with peripheral artery disease (PAD) are at increased risk for major adverse limb and cardiac events including mortality. Developing screening tools capable of accurate PAD identification is a necessary first step for strategies of adverse outcome prevention. This study aimed to determine whether machine analysis of a resting Doppler waveform using deep neural networks can accurately identify patients with PAD. Methods: Consecutive patients (4/8/2015 – 12/31/2020) undergoing rest and postexercise ankle–brachial index (ABI) testing were included. Patients were randomly allocated to training, validation, and testing subsets (70%/15%/15%). Deep neural networks were trained on resting posterior tibial arterial Doppler waveforms to predict normal (> 0.9) or PAD (⩽ 0.9) using rest and postexercise ABI. A separate dataset of 151 patients who underwent testing during a period after the model had been created and validated (1/1/2021 – 3/31/2021) was used for secondary validation. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) were constructed to evaluate test performance. Results: Among 11,748 total patients, 3432 patients met study criteria: 1941 with PAD (mean age 69 ± 12 years) and 1491 without PAD (64 ± 14 years). The predictive model with highest performance identified PAD with an AUC 0.94 (CI = 0.92–0.96), sensitivity 0.83, specificity 0.88, accuracy 0.85, and positive predictive value (PPV) 0.90. Results were similar for the validation dataset: AUC 0.94 (CI = 0.91–0.98), sensitivity 0.91, specificity 0.85, accuracy 0.89, and PPV 0.89 (postexercise ABI comparison). Conclusion: An artificial intelligence-enabled analysis of a resting Doppler arterial waveform permits identification of PAD at a clinically relevant performance level.

Abstract The calf muscle pump is a major determinate of venous return in the legs but has not been studied as a risk factor for venous thromboembolism (VTE). A population-based cohort study of Olmsted County, Minnesota residents was performed using calf pump function (CPF) measurements from venous plethysmography studies from 1998 to 2015. Patients with a history of VTE were excluded. Nursing validated VTE outcomes from the Rochester Epidemiology Project were identified after the index study date, and patients with reduced CPF (rCPF) were compared with patients with normal CPF. A total of 1532 patients with recorded CPF (28% air and 72% strain gauge plethysmography) were included; 591 (38.5%) had normal CPF, 353 (23.0%) had unilateral rCPF, and 588 (38.3%) had bilateral rCPF. Any VTE occurred in 87 patients (5.7%) after a median follow-up of 11.7 years (range, 0-22.0 years). Comparing patients with bilateral reduced to bilateral normal CPF, the unadjusted hazard ratio (HR) for incident VTE was 2.0 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2-3.4) and after adjusting for age, BMI, and Charlson Comorbidity Index, the HR was 1.68 (95% CI, 0.98-2.89). The adjusted HR for ipsilateral deep vein thrombosis was evaluated in 3064 legs comparing legs with reduced to normal CPF and was 1.71 (95% CI, 1.03-2.84). Mortality was significantly higher in both the bilateral (P < .001) and unilateral (P < .001) rCPF groups compared with normal CPF. Our results demonstrate that CPF is a risk factor for VTE in an otherwise low-risk ambulatory population and might be a useful component in risk stratification models.

Background: Venous return from the lower extremities is pumped upwards to the right side of the heart in a process that is facilitated by one-way valves and the venous muscle pump, of which the calf muscle pump is a major contributor1-3. Venous plethysmography can quantitatively assess calf pump function (CPF). The association between the CPF and venous thromboembolism (VTE) has not been investigated. Methods: Venous plethysmography (VP) data (strain gauge or air plethysmography) from the Mayo Clinic Vascular Lab database (1998-2015) of CPF (bilaterally reduced, unilaterally reduced, and bilateral normal) were examined in Olmsted County Residents. The Rochester Epidemiology Project (REP) captures the population of Olmsted County and contains demographic information, medical diagnoses, hospital admissions, and surgical procedures as well as validated VTE events and death. Patients with signs of obstructed outflow in either extremity on the venous plethysmography (a possible sign of acute or chronic deep vein thrombosis) study were excluded. Patients with a history of VTE diagnosed before the physiologic study were also excluded. If more than one measurement of calf muscle pump function was performed, only the first measurement was used. The primary outcome was a composite of any VTE, including proximal and distal deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE). Results: 1703 Olmsted County residents had venous plethysmography studies performed. MN research authorization was denied in 64 patients and 107 were excluded for any documented VTE preceding index VP study. 1532 patients with recorded CPF (28% air and 72% strain gauge plethysmography) were studied: 591 (38.5%) had normal CPF, 353 (23.0%) had unilateral reduced CPF (rCPF), and 588 (38.3%) had bilateral rCPF. The mean age was 64.4 (SD 18.4), 68.9% were female, and the mean BMI was 29.5 (SD 6.4). Any VTE occurred in 87 patients (5.7%) after a mean follow up of 10.9 years (range 0-22.0 years). Isolated lower extremity DVT (excluding concurrent PE) occurred in 49 patients and PE+/-DVT occurred in 38 patients. Death occurred in 352 patients (23%). Bilateral rCPF compared to bilateral normal CPF was associated with VTE (p=0.007), DVT only (p=0.02) and death (p<0.001) but not PE+/-DVT (p=0.13). Unilateral rCPF compared to bilateral normal CPF was not associated with VTE, but was associated with death (p<0.001). Kaplan-Meier curves for VTE and death are shown in Figure 1. The hazard ratio for bilateral rCPF compared to bilateral normal CPF for VTE was 2.0 (95% CI 1.2-3.4) and for DVT only was 2.2 (95% CI 1.1-4.2). A sensitivity analysis for the main outcome of VTE did not show significant interaction based on the type of plethysmography (strain vs. air), by age stratified at 65 years, sex, or BMI stratified at 30 (p>0.1 for each comparison). Conclusion: In this population-based study of Olmsted County residents with no prior VTE, rCPF function as measured by venous plethysmography is associated with increased risk for VTE, particularly lower extremity proximal DVT. More research is required to understand what additional measures of venous physiology influence these findings and whether CPF could be used in VTE risk stratification. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

Calf muscle pump (CMP) promotes venous return from the lower extremity and contributes to preload and cardiac output. Impaired CMP function may reflect a measure of frailty or cumulative disease burden or may impede cardiac function. The study objective was to test the hypothesis that impaired CMP negatively impacts survival. Consecutive adult patients who underwent venous strain gauge plethysmography at the Mayo Clinic Gonda Vascular Laboratory (January 1, 1998 – December 31, 2011) were assessed for overall survival. Patients with venous incompetence, venous obstruction or unilateral calf pump dysfunction were excluded. Risk of mortality was assessed with Cox proportional hazard ratios and after adjusting for Charlson Comorbidity Index variables. Over the study period, 2728 patients were included in the analysis. Compared to patients with normal CMP, those with impaired CMP were older ( p < 0.001), predominantly female ( p = 0.01) and had higher mean Charlson scores ( p < 0.001). Patients with impaired CMP had a higher mortality rate at 5 (8.9% vs 2.4%), 10 (17.5% vs 5.9%), and 15 years (22.8% vs 8.3%) compared to those with normal CMP ( p < 0.001 for each comparison). Of patients with heart failure, those with impaired CMP had worse survival at each 5-year increment compared to those with normal CMP ( p < 0.05 at each increment). In conclusion, impaired CMP appears to be an independent predictor of poor outcomes after adjusting for variables within the Charlson Comorbidity Index. The association between impaired CMP, heart failure, and mortality may represent a negative impact on circulatory function or a surrogate measure of frailty.

Background Automated individualized risk prediction tools linked to electronic health records ( EHR s) are not available for management of patients with peripheral arterial disease. The goal of this study was to create a prognostic tool for patients with peripheral arterial disease using data elements automatically extracted from an EHR to enable real‐time and individualized risk prediction at the point of care. Methods and Results A previously validated phenotyping algorithm was deployed to an EHR linked to the Rochester Epidemiology Project to identify peripheral arterial disease cases from Olmsted County, MN, for the years 1998 to 2011. The study cohort was composed of 1676 patients: 593 patients died over 5‐year follow‐up. The c‐statistic for survival in the overall data set was 0.76 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.74–0.78), and the c‐statistic across 10 cross‐validation data sets was 0.75 (95% CI, 0.73–0.77). Stratification of cases demonstrated increasing mortality risk by subgroup (low: hazard ratio, 0.35 [95% CI, 0.21–0.58]; intermediate‐high: hazard ratio, 2.98 [95% CI, 2.37–3.74]; high: hazard ratio, 8.44 [95% CI, 6.66–10.70], all P <0.0001 versus the reference subgroup). An equation for risk calculation was derived from Cox model parameters and β estimates. Big data infrastructure enabled deployment of the real‐time risk calculator to the point of care via the EHR . Conclusions This study demonstrates that electronic tools can be deployed to EHR s to create automated real‐time risk calculators to predict survival of patients with peripheral arterial disease. Moreover, the prognostic model developed may be translated to patient care as an automated and individualized real‐time risk calculator deployed at the point of care.

The burden and predictors of hospitalization over time in community-based patients with peripheral artery disease (PAD) have not been established. This study evaluates the frequency, reasons and predictors of hospitalization over time in community-based patients with PAD. We assembled an inception cohort of 1798 PAD cases from Olmsted County, MN, USA (mean age 71.2 years, 44% female) from 1 January 1998 through 31 December 2011 who were followed until 2014. Two age- and sex-matched controls ( n = 3596) were identified for each case. ICD-9 codes were used to ascertain the primary reasons for hospitalization. Patients were censored at death or last follow-up. The most frequent reasons for hospitalization were non-cardiovascular: 68% of 8706 hospitalizations in cases and 78% of 8005 hospitalizations in controls. A total of 1533 (85%) cases and 2286 (64%) controls ( p < 0.001) were hospitalized at least once; 1262 (70%) cases and 1588 (44%) controls ( p < 0.001) ≥ two times. In adjusted models, age, prior hospitalization and comorbid conditions were independently associated with increased risk of recurrent hospitalizations in both groups. In cases, severe PAD (ankle–brachial index < 0.5) (HR: 1.25; 95% CI: 1.15, 1.36) and poorly compressible arteries (HR: 1.26; 95% CI: 1.16, 1.38) were each associated with increased risk for recurrent hospitalization. We demonstrate an increased rate of hospitalization in community-based patients with PAD and identify predictors of recurrent hospitalizations. These observations may inform strategies to reduce the burden of hospitalization of PAD patients.

Background Lower extremity peripheral arterial disease (PAD) is a common medical condition causing substantial morbidity. Limited data exist on whether discrepancies in PAD prevalence exist between the lower extremities using resting ankle-brachial indices (ABIs) and postexercise pressures. Objective We predicted the prevalence of PAD between the lower extremities. Methods and Results Consecutive patients who had undergone a noninvasive arterial lower extremity study at Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, between January 1996 and December 2012 with suspected PAD were retrospectively reviewed. We identified 12,312 consecutive patients who underwent an arterial lower extremity and an exercise treadmill study. Prevalence of PAD was assessed at rest and after exercise using two criteria: a resting ABI ≤ 0.90 and a postexercise pressure decrease of > 30 mm Hg. Mean age was 67 ± 12 years and there were 4,780 (39%) women studied. At rest, we found a higher prevalence of PAD on the left extremity (27.4%) compared with the right (24.6%) (p < 0.0001). After exercise, we found a higher prevalence of PAD on the right extremity (25.1%) compared with the left (19.0%) (p < 0.0001). These discrepancies between the prevalence of PAD at rest and after exercise were present in women and men. Conclusion Using validated criteria of a resting ABI of ≤ 0.90 and postexercise ankle pressure decrease > 30 mm Hg, our results suggest that there is a significantly higher prevalence of PAD in the left lower extremity at rest, in contrast to a greater prevalence of abnormal postexercise testing in the right lower extremity. The reason(s) of these discrepancies remain to be studied.