Kleinig, Timothy

Background Adults with congenital heart disease (CHD) are at increased risk of stroke but high‐quality population level data on stroke incidence in these patients are scant. Methods and Results A retrospective whole‐population Western Australian cohort of adult patients with CHD aged 18 to 64 years was created and followed from January 2000 to December 2017 using linked hospital data. Stroke incidence rates within the adult cohort with CHD were calculated and compared with the general population via direct standardization. A nested case–control design assessed predictors of ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke within the cohort. Among 7916 adults with CHD, 249 (3.1%) incident strokes occurred at a median age of 47 years; 186 (2.3%) ischemic, 33 (0.4%) hemorrhagic and 30 (0.4%) unspecified strokes. Ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke incidence was, respectively, 9 and 3 times higher in adults with CHD than the general population. Absolute risk was low with annual rates of 0.26% (ischemic) and 0.05% (hemorrhagic). Highest rates were observed in adults with shunt and left‐sided lesions. Predictors of ischemic stroke in adults with CHD included recent cardiac surgery, left‐sided valve repair/replacements, shunt lesions, and traditional risk factors (hypertension, infective endocarditis, peripheral vascular disease, and tobacco use). Mental health disorders and increasing Charlson's comorbidity scores were strongly associated with higher risk of ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke. The CHA 2 DS 2 VASc score was associated with ischemic stroke incidence. Conclusions This study provides the first population‐based stroke incidence estimates for adults with CHD in Australia, showing elevated stroke risk across different CHD lesions. It highlights the potential clinical importance of managing comorbidities, especially mental health.

AbstractObjectiveWe performed a pilot stroke incidence study, focused on feasibility and inclusion of the CONSIDER reporting guidelines, to model the design of a future population‐based study aiming to definitively determine stroke incidence, antecedents, treatment, and outcomes.Study designProspective stroke incidence study (pilot study).Setting, participantsAll people aged 15 years or older who lived in postcode‐defined areas of South Australia and Northern Territory (885 472 people, including 45 127 Aboriginal people [5.1%]) diagnosed with stroke for the first time during 1 October – 31 December 2015 and admitted to public hospitals or stroke and transient ischaemic attack clinics.Main outcome measuresFeasibility of a prospective population‐based stroke incidence study.ResultsOf the 123 participants with first strokes, ten were Aboriginal (8%); the median age of Aboriginal people was 45 years (interquartile range [IQR], 33–55 years), of non‐Indigenous people 73 years (IQR, 62–84 years). For Aboriginal people, the age‐standardised incidence of stroke was 104 (95% confidence interval [CI], 84–124) per 100 000 person‐years, for non‐Indigenous people 33 (95% CI, 22–44) per 100 000 person‐years. We found that a prospective population‐based stroke incidence study in Aboriginal people was feasible, including with respect to establishing an adequate sample size, diagnostic confirmation, identification of incident stroke, confirming stroke subtypes, establishing a stable statistical population, standardising data reporting for comparison with other stroke incidence studies, and ethical research reporting that conforms to CONSIDER guidelines.ConclusionsA larger, population‐based study of the incidence of stroke in Aboriginal people is both feasible and needed to provide robust estimates of stroke incidence, antecedents, treatments and outcomes to help guide strategies for reducing the risk of and outcomes of stroke in Aboriginal people.