Berg, Maarten P van den

Abstract Background and Aims Patients with catecholaminergic polymorphic ventricular tachycardia (CPVT) are at risk for potentially life-threatening arrhythmic events (AEs) even while treated with β-blockers. The aim was to develop a model for individualized prediction of AEs in patients with RYR2-mediated CPVT on β-blocker monotherapy. Methods The derivation and independent validation cohorts included 743 and 129 patients, respectively. AEs were defined as arrhythmic syncope, appropriate implantable cardioverter–defibrillator shock, sudden cardiac arrest (SCA), and sudden cardiac death. Near-fatal or fatal AEs (nf/fAEs) included all AEs except for arrhythmic syncope. Prediction models using Cox regression were developed and internally and externally validated. Results A total of 102 (13.7%) patients in the derivation cohort and 24 (18.6%) patients in the validation cohort experienced ≥1 AE over a median follow-up of 5.1 [interquartile range (IQR), 7.7] and 2.4 (IQR, 4.4) years, respectively. Predictors of AE were arrhythmic syncope or SCA prior to diagnosis and age at β-blocker initiation. In the derivation and validation cohorts, the optimism-corrected C-indices of the models for AE were 0.67 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.62–0.72] and 0.59 (95% CI 0.48–0.71), respectively. For nf/fAEs, ventricular arrhythmia severity before β-blocker initiation was a fourth independent predictor, and C-indices of the models in the derivation and validation cohorts were 0.74 (95% CI 0.68–0.80) and 0.60 (95% CI 0.47–0.72), respectively. In the derivation cohort, calibration slopes were 1.00 (95% CI 0.59–1.41) for AE and 1.00 (95% CI 0.69–1.32) for nf/fAE. Conclusions These externally validated risk prediction models using clinical parameters accurately distinguished CPVT patients on β-blocker monotherapy at low and high risk for future AEs while treated with β-blockers. These models provide guidance for implementation of clinical management therapies to prevent AEs in patients with CPVT.