Renfro, Lindsay A.

10019 Background: The reported incidence of second malignant neoplasms (SMN) in long-term survivors of Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) is derived from patients treated with outdated radiation therapy (RT) techniques. We modeled the risk of SMN in pediatric patients with high-risk classic HL treated with modern mediastinal RT. Methods: In patients who received mediastinal RT on the Children’s Oncology Group study AHOD1331, we modeled the lifetime attributable risk (LAR) at 70 years of age of thyroid, lung, and breast carcinoma. This value indicates the absolute increased risk of SMN at 70 years of age due to RT, above the baseline population risk (mean baseline rates at 70 years of age are 0.7%, 3.3%, and 8.9% for thyroid, lung, and breast carcinoma, respectively, https://seer.cancer.gov/data/ ). Results: In 296 patients who received protocol-directed mediastinal RT, median age at diagnosis was 15.1 years, 55% were female, and 98% had large mediastinal adenopathy. Following 5 cycles of chemotherapy, patients received RT targeting the mediastinum based on criteria of this study; in addition, some patients received RT to other supradiaphragmatic sites that contained slowly responding lesions, including the axilla (n = 3, 1%), lung (n = 7, 2.4%), upper neck (n = 4, 1.3%), and lower neck (n = 8, 2.7%). The RT modality was proton therapy in 25.3%, photon intensity modulated RT (IMRT) in 45.6%, and photon 3-dimensional conformal RT (3D-CRT) in 27.7%. The RT prescription dose was 21 Gy in 83% and 30 Gy in 16% who had a partial metabolic response at the completion of chemotherapy. The mean (range) doses to the thyroid, lungs, and breasts were 12.8 Gy (0-30.3), 8.0 Gy (0.1-15.2), and 4.2 Gy (0.2-14.5), respectively. For the complete cohort, the mean LAR at 70 years of age of thyroid carcinoma was 0.063% and of lung carcinoma was 5.34%. For females, the mean LAR at 70 years of age of breast carcinoma was 2.92%. The Table summarizes the LAR for each SMN, stratified by RT modality. Conclusions: In patients treated with mediastinal RT on a recent multi-institutional study of pediatric HL, the predicted long-term risk of SMN is substantially lower than in historical cohorts. Clinicians should consider the toxicity associated with a current RT approach when selecting therapies and counseling patients. Clinical trial information: NCT02166463 , this is a post hoc modeling study that includes patients enrolled on this study. Mean [range] lifetime attributable risk (%) at an attained age of 70 years for thyroid, lung, and breast carcinoma. Thyroid Lung Breast (females) 3D-CRT 0.046 [0.002-0.332]N=81 5.07 [0.12-10.82]N=82 1.82 [0.67-5.98]N=46 IMRT 0.064 [0.001-0.386]N=135 6.24 [2.22-11.79]N=135 4.36 [0.66-8.43]N=76 Proton 0.086 [0-1.160]N=74 4.15 [0.94-7.77]N=75 1.45 [0.17-7.23]N=40

This nonrandomized clinical trial reports outcomes for children with low-risk relapsed Hodgkin lymphoma treated with second-line chemotherapy and involved-field radiotherapy without autologous stem cell transplant.

Purpose In lymphomas, the Deauville score (DS) standardizes 18F-FDG PET treatment response assessments. We assessed interobserver agreement of the DS and developed a quantitative PET-based parameter to minimize subjectivity of response assessments. Methods PET scans performed within the Children’s Oncology Group AHOD0831 study were analyzed. One hundred one scans obtained after the first cycle of chemotherapy (PET1) and 83 obtained after the second cycle (PET2) were eligible for inclusion. Each scan was assigned a DS by 2 nuclear medicine radiologists and a Hodgkin lymphoma index (HLI), defined as the ratio of the tumor’s SUVmax or SUVpeak to the liver’s SUVmean. Cohen κ coefficient measured the rate of agreement of the DS assigned by the 2 radiologists. Receiver operating characteristic curves and the Youden index were used with the consensus DS to identify an optimal HLI cutoff value to distinguish PET-negative from PET-positive images. For each HLI cutoff value, sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy were calculated. Results Interobserver agreement in DS was moderate (PET1: κ = 0.480, P < 0.001; PET2: κ = 0.428, P < 0.001). On PET1, the optimal cutoff values for HLImax were 1.19 for DS2/DS3 and 1.78 for DS3/DS4, and for HLIpeak were 1.19 for DS2/DS3 and 1.44 for DS3/DS4. On PET2 images, the corresponding values were 1.18, 1.58, 0.94, and 1.26. The most accurate predictor was HLImax on PET2 when scans were dichotomized as DS1–DS3 versus DS4–DS5 (accuracy, 92.8%; sensitivity, 100%; specificity, 91.8%). Conclusion The HLI provides an objective, quantitative measure of disease response and thus may improve interreader agreement for lymphoma response assessments.

3618 Background: Current prognostic tools and staging systems in CC use relatively few patient (pt) characteristics; including additional covariates may improve prediction. Using the large ACCENT database, we constructed clinically based NGs for OS and TTR in stage III CC that better separate pts into risk groups compared to AJCC v7 staging. Methods: 15,936 stage III pts accrued to phase III clinical trials since 1989 were used to construct Cox models for TTR and OS. Variables included age, sex, race, BMI, performance status, tumor grade, tumor stage, ratio of positive lymph nodes to nodes examined, number/location of primary tumors (any multiple versus single left, right, or transverse), and treatment (5FU variations vs. 5FU with oxaliplatin or irinotecan). Missing data (<18%) were imputed, continuous variables modeled with splines, and clinically relevant pairwise interactions included if p < 0.001. Final models were internally validated via bootstrapping for corrected calibration and C-indices for survival data. NG-defined risk tertiles were compared to AJCC v7 stage III for observed 3-year (yr) TTR and 5-yr OS for a subset of 7400 pts with complete data. Results: All variables were statistically and clinically significant for OS; age and race did not predict TTR. No meaningful interactions existed. NGs for OS and TTR were well calibrated and associated with C-indices of 0.66 and 0.65, respectively, vs. 0.58 and 0.59 for AJCC. NG risk tertiles were better separated than AJCC groups, (3-yr TTR, 5-yr OS below), with fewer mid-risk NG pts. Removing treatment from NGs did not affect performance (C=0.66 for OS and 0.65 for TTR). Conclusions: The proposed ACCENT NGs are internally valid and have the potential to aid prognostication, decision-making, and patient/physician communication in pts with stage III CC. [Table: see text]

7510 Background: We previously demonstrated that PFS may be a candidate surrogate endpoint for OS in ES-SCLC using data from 3 randomized trials (Foster, Cancer 2011). Here, we sought to formally assess the patient- and trial-level surrogacy of PFS using data from 9 additional randomized phase II and III trials conducted by the NCI-funded cancer cooperative groups since 1986. Methods: Individual patient data from all 12 trials (3178 patients: 9 phase III and 3 phase II) were pooled. OS was the primary endpoint in all phase III trials; 3 phase III and 1 phase II trial were positive per protocol. Patient-level surrogacy (Kendall’s tau) was assessed using the Clayton copula bivariate survival model. Trial-level surrogacy was assessed via association of the log hazard ratios on OS and PFS across trials, including: weighted (by trial size) least squares regression of Cox model effects (R² WLS) and weighted (by trial size) correlation of the copula effects (R² Copula). One trial had 4 treatment arms thus 14 total two-arm comparisons were made. Results: With a median follow-up of 41.8 months in the 106 patients still alive, the median OS and PFS across trials were 9.7 months (95% CI: 9.5, 9.9) and 5.7 months (95% CI: 5.5, 5.8), respectively. There were 3120 PFS events in total (2564 disease progressions and 556 deaths without progression). The median time from progression to death was 4.1 months (95% CI: 3.9, 4.3). PFS showed modest association with OS at the patient-level (tau= 0.56) and at the trial-level (R² WLS = 0.58; R² Copula (standard error) = 0.55 (0.29)). The 95% CIs for the predicted HR for OS given observed HR on PFS under a weighted leave-one-out prediction always included the observed HR for OS; however such intervals were wide, suggesting uncertainty on the practical use of PFS as a surrogate for OS in this setting. Conclusions: PFS failed to demonstrate surrogacy for OS in ES-SCLC based on this large pooled analysis. Given that the difference in the median PFS and OS is less than 6 months, we recommend using OS as the primary endpoint in phase III trials of previously untreated ES-SCLC.